Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal has been one of the few truly bankable pitchers currently in baseball in recent years. Not that there aren't other tremendous pitchers in MLB right now, but Skubal has reached a different level after back-to-back Cy Youngs that has fans and collectors thinking that he could end up being a generational talent and future Hall of Famer. So, when the unfortunate news came out recently that Skubal needed elbow surgery, there was understandable concern.
While Skubal's surgery isn't Tommy John, and he firmly thinks he will be better on the other side after getting it, having loose bodies removed from one's body is a real surgery that will keep him out for months. That has forced many collectors to re-evaluate their buying and selling plans and the hobby as a whole to remember that pitchers are as risky a bet as you can make.
Tarik Skubal's card market hasn't collapsed because of his elbow surgery, but collectors are being cautious
We honestly should have seen something like this coming. Skubal previously had flexor tendon surgery as well as Tommy John surgery, so it isn't like his elbow has been the picture of health for many years. Even if there is no new damage, which seems unlikely, that is a lot of wear and tear on Skubal's arm that could cause little bits to float around in there and cause problems.
For card collectors, this has clearly been one of those moments where everything gets put on pause. It doesn't seem as though collectors are panicking and selling off everything with Skubal's name on it, but sales have slowed to a crawl. In the days since Skubal's injury was revealed, there have been very few sales of his autos, and the ones that have happened have been very high-end and/or the results of auctions that started before his surgery was announced.
At the moment, Skubal's card prices remain relatively stable with no real peaks or valleys over the last few days. The old adage "follow the money" seems to apply here as everyone (from fans to collectors to Tigers team officials) is currently in a holding pattern. No one wants to make things worse by acting rashly, but that doesn't mean there isn't some genuine concern for the present and the future.
The next shoe to drop will be when Skubal begins throwing again. If it is a relatively quick process and he is throwing in pretty short order, you can expect the market to adjust positively in anticipation of his entry into free agency. However, if it takes a while and/or we find the damage was worse than initially thought, we may see his card prices come down in a hurry as collectors jump ship.
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