Everyone has opinions about the draft in any sport when they have the benefit of hindsight. The number of couch GMs that "knew all along" that a guy was going to be good or a bum seems to grow by the minute. It can be tiring to experience, but there IS something to be said about using the card collecting market to help determine which teams' draft picks are on the rise, as well as diagnosing those who are off to a rocky start.
This is admittedly an imperfect method of evaluation. Collectors will almost always prefer hitters over pitchers, and draft position tends to elevate or hinder a player's price tag until they are more established, and fans start caring about top 100 prospect list placement and general prospect hype more.
Still, it is kind of fun to think about what the first round of the 2025 MLB Draft would have been like if sports card collectors were in charge and scouts only cared about their Bowman 1st auto prices.
2025 Bowman 1st-based MLB Re-Draft has Pirates' Seth Hernandez leading the way
Now, we know that where a player gets drafted is not solely dependent on talent. Teams are always playing the draft bonus pool money game and are happy to take the cheaper player if talent levels are reasonably close. In fact, the odds are very good that Eli Willits wouldn't have been the top pick in the 2025 draft if he wasn't willing to take almost $3 million under slot.
Teams make picks with other picks in mind as well as organizational need, so it is best not to look at draft position alone when deciding if a prospect is good or not.
First, let's take a look at how the first round ultimately shook out this past year to get a sense of the names we are working with here.
1. Eli Willits - Washington Nationals - Shortstop
2. Tyler Bremner - Los Angeles Angels - Pitcher
3. Kade Anderson - Seattle Mariners - Pitcher
4. Ethan Holliday - Colorado Rockies - Shortstop
5. Liam Doyle - St. Louis Cardinals - Pitcher
6. Seth Hernandez - Pittsburgh Pirates - Pitcher
7. Aiva Arquette - Miami Marlins - Shortstop
8. JoJo Parker - Toronto Blue Jays - Shortstop
9. Steele Hall - Cincinnati Reds - Shortstop
10. Billy Carlson - Chicago White Sox - Shortstop
11. Jamie Arnold - Athletics - Pitcher
12. Gavin Fien - Texas Rangers - Third Baseman
13. Gavin Kilen - San Francisco Giants - Shortstop
14. Daniel Pierce - Tampa Bay Rays - Shortstop
15. Kyson Witherspoon - Boston Red Sox - Pitcher
16. Marek Houston - Minnesota Twins - Shortstop
17. Ethan Conrad - Chicago Cubs - Outfielder
18. Kayson Cunningham - Arizona Diamondbacks - Shortstop
19. Ike Irish - Baltimore Orioles - Catcher
20. Andrew Fischer - Milwaukee Brewers - Third Baseman
21. Xavier Neyens - Houston Astros - Shortstop
22. Tate Southisene - Atlanta Braves - Shortstop
23. Sean Gamble - Kansas City Royals - Outfielder
24. Jordan Yost - Detroit Tigers - Shortstop
25. Kruz Schoolcraft - San Diego Padres - Pitcher
26. Gage Wood - Philadelphia Phillies - Pitcher
27. Jace LaViolette - Cleveland Guardians - Outfielder
Again, fairly straightforward, with a couple of guys who were definitely picked higher than they would normally because of bonus pool considerations. You have a mix of position players and pitchers, with shortstop being the unsurprising popular choice in the first round.
Now, if you look almost a year later and several months after the release of 2025 Bowman Draft, rankings based solely on how much their Bowman 1st autos are going for look very different. The biggest reason for those differences is that several first-round picks (Ethan Holliday, Aiva Arquette, Daniel Pierce, Marek Houston, Andrew Fischer, Kruz Schoolcraft, and Jace LaViolette) don't have Bowman 1st autos yet and will have to wait for the release of 2026 Bowman Baseball.
However, that is not the only reason for changes in the rankings. There are several players, including some that weren't even originally picked in the first round, whose stocks have changed dramatically since they were drafted. Just take a look.
Yes, we know that Bowman 1st auto prices are not the end-all, be-all. This is just a thought experiment from pricing data as of May 3, 2026. Please go play outside and touch some grass instead of being mad on the internet about it.
- Seth Hernandez - $233
- Eli Willits - $139
- Kade Anderson - $133
- JoJo Parker - $107
- Dax Kilby - $90
- Anthony Eyanson - $82
- Steele Hall - $58
- Jamie Arnold - $58
- Liam Doyle - $55
- Billy Carlson - $51
- Tyler Bremner - $48
- Gage Wood - $47
- Ethan Conrad - $45
- Xavier Neyens - $45
- Ike Irish - $39
- Josh Hammond - $39
- Kyson Witherspoon - $37
- Charles Davalan - $37
- Gavin Kilen - $33
- Jordan Yost - $32
- Gavin Fien - $30
- Kayson Cunningham - $30
- Sean Gamble - $29
- Tate Southisene - $23
- Ethan Frey - $23
- Caden Bodine - $22
- Mitch Voit (tied with a bunch of others) - $20
The biggest takeaway here is that Seth Hernandez's stock is through the roof right now. After thoroughly dominating Low-A so far in his first pro season, Hernandez is making a strong argument that not only should he have been picked first overall in the draft, but he may already be a top-5 prospect in all of baseball if not higher.
Most of the changes here are just reordering some first-round picks, although a few new names did make appearances. Dax Kilby was a comp-round pick, so he wasn't far from being a true first-round pick, but a strong showing immediately after the draft has the Yankees prospect as one of the hottest names to chase. Red Sox pitching prospect Anthony Eyanson is right behind him. Boston's third-round pick has been laying waste to the minors and currently sports a 0.44 ERA through his first five starts of the season. Josh Hammond, Charles Davalan, Ethan Frey, and Caden Bodine also crashed the party.
Many of the players here had price rankings very close to their draft position, although there were some outliers. Tyler Bremner was taken No. 2 overall in what was probably an under-slot play, but he only has the 11th-most expensive Bowman 1st auto. Liam Doyle was picked fifth, but he only comes in at No. 9 overall here. If you have learned anything, it is that collectors would be picking hitters early and often if they were in charge, and that is very unlikely to change anytime soon.
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