The end of the MLB regular season is drawing near, and many of the races for end-of-season awards have fully taken shape. Yordan Alvarez is a heavy favorite to win AL MVP, and it would be a shock at this point if avid card collector Jacob Misiorowski didn't win the NL Cy Young award. However, one set of races that doesn't always impact the collecting market as much as you would think is for Rookie of the Year in each league.
Sure, it is often true that the top rookie in any given class of baseball card products is also the most valuable on the market, but not always. Rookie eligibility requirements unfortunately differ from when players have rookie cards, which can create a disconnect between actual rookies who are in the hunt for ROY and guys who were eligible the previous year that missed the cutoff for getting rookie cards.
Even once you get rid of the guys with rookie cards this year that aren't even Rookie of the Year eligible, you still find that what the market thinks about the remaining rookies does not exactly match up with their ROY odds.
Here is how MLB's Rookie of the Year races would shake out today if it were awarded based on the prices of rookie cards
To make this comparison, the ideal solution would be to find the same product and compare the values of each player's base rookie auto from that product. This has proven to be very difficult, but we opted to go with the recently released 2026 Topps Pristine, as it is the product that includes rookie autos of most of the viable Rookie of the Year candidates. Even then, there are two players that are definitely going to get some ROY votes that don't have rookie autos at ALL yet, so we are going to have to do some guesstimating there.
Also, as previously discussed, all players who are not ROY-eligible this year do not qualify. Yes, we are well aware that Misiorowski and Roman Anthony rookie autos command big money, but they are not eligible for Rookie of the Year this year, so they were not eligible for this exercise. All card values are approximations based on available sales data as of August 25, and they are very likely to change over the course of the coming week
American League Rookie of the Year
- Munetaka Murakami - $325
- Kevin McGonigle - $290
- Kazuma Okamoto - $125
- Payton Tolle - $80
- Parker Messick - $30
In reality, Kevin McGonigle is a heavy favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year over Munetaka Murakami due to his all-around excellence combined with Murakami missing an extended period of time with an injury. However, collectors are still narrowly preferring Murakami with their wallets. The gap isn't crazy, but hobbyists do seem to be placing substantial bets on Murakami hitting tape-measure shots and captivating audiences internationally for years to come.
That international appeal also helps Kazuma Okamoto climb to third in these rankings, as his numbers this season don't necessarily scream ROY contender. As is the case with real voters as well, there is a very clear preference for hitters on the market. Parker Messick is a fringe Cy Young contender this year, but collectors do not seem to be enthusiastic about his cards.
National League Rookie of the Year
- JJ Wetherholt - $185
- Sal Stewart - $150
- Carson Benge - N/A
- Nolan McLean - $75
- TJ Rumfield - N/A
The closest of the end-of-season award race remains tight with this comparison. JJ Wetherholt JUST edges the Reds' Sal Stewart in terms of Pristine rookie auto values. However, the ROY race is a bit more complicated than that. Stewart has been the better hitter, but Wetherholt has been insane defensively. This is an award that will be won or lost over the next couple of weeks, and it doesn't seem as though collectors have a preference right now.
There are also a couple of wild cards in the mix here. The only other NL rookie that has a realistic ROY case is the Mets' Carson Benge, but he doesn't have rookie autos in any product yet. We are guessing that Benge would barely edge out his teammate, Nolan McLean, if he had a Pristine rookie auto given his rise in 2026 and ... well, the reality that he is a hitter. Sad times for the Rockies' TJ Rumfield, who not only doesn't have a rookie auto yet, but is in a pretty distant fifth place among the eligible rookies by nearly every measure (even though he has had a pretty good season at the plate).
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