MLB Top 50 Prospects: 21-30

As we continue to analyze Keith Law’s Top 50 prospects, we now come to the middle portion of the rankings. You may see some familiar names headlining this group; only one prospect ranked between 21-30 went unranked by Law a year ago.

Part I (prospects No. 1 through No. 10) saw an abundance of infielders, while Part II (prospects No. 11 through No. 20) saw pitchers take the scene. Seven of the ten prospects are starting pitchers, and the three top-rated hurlers all took a significant step back in 2014. While only three position players compose this section of the list, each one brings something different to the table. There is a 6-foot-7 slugger projected to move quickly through the minors, a 30-30 threat likely to reach the bigs early this season, and a potential top-of-the-order pest who may need a bit more development.

#21

Archie Bradley

2014 was a lost one for Bradley, leading the 2011 first rounder to drop 14 spots in Law’s rankings a year after being rated a top ten prospect in baseball. The Oklahoman has a fastball, his top pitch, that can touch 97 with late movement, but the regression of his curve (it dropped from a plus-plus pitch to simply above average, according to Law) was the main cause of his struggles. Credit a flexor strain for his hook reduced movement and an ineffectiveness. Now that his elbow has fully recovered, the righty should be able to get back on track and reach the big leagues early on this season.

#22

Jon Gray

Another 6-foot-4 pitcher makes an appearance in the middle of the Top 50, this time in the form of 2013 first round pick Jon Gray. Gray posted a solid 3.91 ERA in his first full pro season, but a dip in fastball velocity downed his stock. Prior to the draft, Gray topped out at 102 mph. However, he was mostly around 89-94 during the course of the 2014 season. Besides his fastball, Gray throws a slider and changeup, both of which currently grade out around a 55 on the 20-80 scale. To regain that legitimate ace status, Gray needs to either have plus command or re-develop his fastball as an out pitch. If he can achieve either, the latter being far more likely, we could see him in Colorado this season.

#23

Aaron Judge

Surprising many with an outstanding pro debut in 2014, Judge leaps into the top 25 after being unranked prior to last season. His size draws comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton, and his massive raw power led the Yankees to select him 32nd overall in the 2013 draft. Judge and his monstrous frame has not inhibited his contact ability thus far, as the slugger batted .308 in A-Ball last season. He needs to work on translating that raw power into more in-game pop (he hit just 17 homers in 2014), but his incredible grasp of the strike zone (17.5 BB percentage in High-A), and compact swing should allow him to tap into his talent and eventually reach the 30 home run plateau at the major league level.

#24

Jose Peraza

Blocked by Andrelton Simmons at shortstop, Peraza will likely settle in as an excellent defender at second base. He has a short swing and excellent hand-eye coordination, which led him to a .339 batting average in Double-A last season. Furthermore 70-grade speed translates in-game as he swiped 60 bags last year. But despite an impressive array of tools and a solid minor league numbers, Peraza needs to improve his plate discipline if he wants to best use his skill set and develop into a quality leadoff hitter. At just 20 years old, the Braves do not have to rush Peraza to the bigs, and he has plenty of time to improve his game. Still, he could be knocking down the Braves door by midseason.

#25

Kyle Zimmer

At first glance, Kyle Zimmer looks like your prototypical ace. He posses three plus pitches, a strong build, and and can control his pitches well. However, nagging shoulder injuries have delayed this promising prospect from making his inevitable big league debut. He has not been fully healthy for the past year and a half, and he might not be ready to pitch until late-April 2015. When he is healthy though, few can match what Zimmer brings to the mound; he features a high-90s fastball, a sharp curve with near 12-6 break, and a tailing change. With a career 11.0 K/9 and 1.20 WHIP, Zimmer does not have much left to prove in the minors. Staying healthy over the course of the full season would do wonders for reestablishing Zimmer as an elite prospect.

#26

Dylan Bundy

Bundy is the perfect example of how far a prospect can fall in just a few seasons. He entered 2013 as the top pitching prospect in baseball. But after injuring his elbow and missing nearly a full year of development time, he slides just out of the first quarter of Law’s Top 50. To be honest, I am not as high on the right-hander as Law is. His fastball, once 98, sat in the low 90s over the summer. He lost consistency with his curve, which could just be due to his missed time, but the fact that the Os had to shut him down in early August seems to signal that he is not fully recovered from his 2013 injury. Already three years into being a unanimous Top 100 prospect, this spring will reveal whether Bundy still has that ace potential which made him the fourth overall selection in the 2011 draft.

#27

David Dahl

As the tenth pick of the 2012 draft, injuries forced Dahl to take a little longer than expected to climb the minor league ladder. Still, after not facing live pitching for 11 months, the Rockies have to be ecstatic about the tools and performance of Dahl in 2014. The 20-year-old is a pure hitter with quick, strong hands; he should be able to hit 20+ homers in the big leagues (and more if he calls Coors his home). Dahl plays plus defense bolstered by his speed (he stole 21 bases in ’14), and he could own a Gold Glove or two when it is all said and done. Dahl walked in only 5 percent of his at-bats last season, but according to law, he is working with the Rockies coaches on his plate discipline, a testament to his work ethic and desire to improve. He likely will not reach the majors this season, but a strong 2015 could go a long way towards solidifying his position as the Rockies centerfielder of the future.

#28

Joc Pederson

Had he not been blocked by the Dodgers glut of quality outfielders, Pederson likely would have joined the team as more than just a September call-up. Instead, he went on to absolutely mash minor league pitching; he posted a ridiculous 1.017 OPS and left Triple-A having hit 33 home runs, swiped 30 bags, and knocked in 78 RBI in just 121 games. That speed and power combo should translate to the big leagues, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Pederson joins the 30-30 club in a few seasons if he sticks in LA’s star studded lineup. Strikeouts will always be a problem for the outfielder (he struck out in 27 percent of Triple-A at-bats), but he counters the whiffs with a high walk rate and should play a huge role in the Dodgers success this season.

#29

Eduardo Rodriguez

The Red Sox somehow managed to steal Eduardo Rodriguez from the Orioles last season in exchange for a half season of Andrew Miller. Miller left Baltimore for the Big Apple a few months later, but Rodriguez, a potential ace, could be the next elite southpaw to pitch at Fenway for years to come. The lefty has a mid 90s fastball, a plus change, premier athleticism, and pitched to a 0.96 ERA for Double-A Portland after coming over in the trade. He needs to improve his command and slider (currently fringe-average) to become a true number one starter. Rodriguez has plenty of time to reach his sky-high potential and should join the White Sox rotation in 2016.

#30

Alex Meyer

Meyer turned 25 this January, making him the oldest player on this list by quite a bit. Still, the 6-foot-9 right-hander oozes with talent. He throws a mid-90s fastball that touches triple digits and a nasty slider that baffles right handed batters. A clean injury record has kept the Twins from wasting his talent in the pen, but he needs to develop his changeup if he wants to pitch at the top end of the rotation. Law sees the change as a below-average pitch, but it could be his go-to pitch against lefties with more development. Given his advanced age, he could (and should) join the Twins rotation sometime during the year. Should his changeup grow into a above-average pitch, Meyer has number two starter potential, but would likely best fit as the third pitcher on a talented staff.

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