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The Law of the Land: MiLB’s Top 50 Prospects

By Wayne Cavadi

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It’s that time of year. Keith Law, ESPN’s minor league guru, has been a ranking machine the last few days. Most recently, he has given us his Top 100 prospects heading into the 2015 season. While many of the names have stayed the same, there have been some interesting jumps up and down the charts.

The prospect game is often a crap shoot. For every Mike Trout you get right, the interesting case of Jesus Montero arises. Montero was a Top 10 prospect in baseball for three consecutive seasons by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. He has yet to live up anywhere near to that hype and we are learning that he may not even be major league worthy at all. Then you take a guy like Corey Kluber who was a fourth round draft pick that was relatively unheard of throughout his rise up the minor league ladder. Three full seasons into his brief major league career, he is already the reigning American league Cy Young Award winner.

That is not to say that there is no value in ranking prospects or farm systems for that matter. It simply means to proceed with caution. Will Byron Buxton overcome his injury woes and become the star he is expected to be, or will he suffer the fate of one-time No. 1 overall prospect Brien Taylor and never come to fruition? Perhaps that is the best part of the ranking system. The excitement and uncertainty of what the future holds.

Today, we take a look at the Top 10 prospects in baseball according to Keith Law.

Mar 3, 2014; Bradenton, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox catcher Blake Swihart (80) works out prior to the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

10. Blake Swihart, Catcher, Boston Red Sox

Coming in at No. 10, Swihart is the highest rated catcher in minor league baseball right now. The 2011 first round draft pick, selected 26th overall by the Red Sox, had a monster 2014 season, earning MiLB Organizational All Star honors. His best year of his young professional career saw him jump from from the 56th best prospect in 2014 all the way to the Top 10.

Swihart is a 6-foot-1, 175 pound switch-hitter. He is stronger from the right side of the plate, but has improved every season from the left side with plus-pop in his bat. His excellent plate coordination led to a .293/.341/.469 slash line over two leagues. He hit a career-high 13 home runs, and swiped an also career-high eight stolen bases while only getting caught once, showing his above average speed for your typical backstop.

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Swihart is equally impressive behind the plate. Last season he threw out 31 of 68 (46 percent) would be base stealers. He made just 8 errors in 771 chances which was good for a .990 fielding percentage. He finished 2014 with a range factor of 7.87.

Swihart only has 69 at bats over Double-A ball, so he won’t be rushed to the big leagues to start 2015. With only fellow rookie Christian Vazquez and light-hitting veteran Ryan Hanigan in front of him in Boston, it’s not entirely out of the question to see Swihart in the bigs this year.

9. Julio Urias, Pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers

Urias is the 18-year old left-handed sensation tearing up the lower levels of the Dodgers farm system. His 2014 season was off the charts when considering his age and he is only getting better. Urias was recently rated the top left-handed prospect by MLB Pipeline, and his ranking is no different here. Jumping five spots from the No. 14 ranking he had in 2014, he is the highest ranked lefty on Law’s list as well. 

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Urias is developing into a pitching artist who is showing the ability to command a four-pitch arsenal. His fastball can hit 95 miles per hour with ease and he has a plus-curve that crosses the plate between 75 and 80 MPH. His change up is average and if he can control his hard slider, it is an excellent back door or swing-and-miss pitch coming over at about 85 MPH.

He is being worked along slowly, as he has never pitched more than six innings or more than 22 batters in a game in his entire career. Clayton Kershaw is holding things down as the best lefty in the game, so there is no rush in letting Urias develop as his control still needs some honing. Don’t expect to see Urias this year, but his future is not far away.

Harvard Westlake pitcher Lucas Giolito (Photo Credit: Eric Dearborn Photography)

8. Lucas Giolito, Pitcher, Washington Nationals

Giolito is the games top right handed prospect. A year removed from Tommy John surgery, Giolito put together an outstanding 2014 that allowed him to jump 13 spots from last years No. 21 ranking. Still only 20-years old, Giolito is forming into a monster righty for a Nationals team notorious for elite pitching. 

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Giolito went 10-2 last year with a 2.20 ERA over 20 starts. He struck out 110 batters over 98 innings while only walking 28. His huge frame (6-foot-6, 255 pounds) make him an intimidating force on the mound, but his future four pitch arsenal makes him close to unhittable. His fastball sits in the mid-90s but tops out at 98 miles per hour. He has a plus-curveball that gets great leverage from his huge stature. His change-up is a work in progress, however is still above average. He was not allowed to use his two seam fastball last season in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, however, it will be back in his repertoire this season.

The young righty has future front of the rotation ace written all over him. He has the ability to hurl a lot of innings and keep runners off base. Giolito is likely at least a year away. Expect to see him in the majors at some point in 2016.

7. J.P. Crawford, Shortstop, Philadelphia Phillies

Crawford is the first of several shortstops to make an appearance in the Top 10. His 2014 season was so strong that the Phillies felt they could move on from former MVP and fan favorite Jimmy Rollins as they shipped off to Los Angeles. While Crawford may still be a year away with Freddy Galvis slated to man shortstop in 2015, he will make some noise much sooner than later. 

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Crawford boomed up the prospect list from No. 46 in 2013 to the 7 spot this year. The 2013 first round draft pick matured much quicker than expected last season over two levels of Class-A ball. He slashed his way to an impressive .285/.375/.406 line while hitting 11 home runs and scoring 69 runs. He needs to work on his base path awareness but showed off his above average speed by snagging 24 bases in 38 tries.

His defense is well above average. He still struggles going to the hole, but at just 20 years of age, he is well above the learning curve. He has a powerful arm and quick feet and makes plays well in front of him and at the base. He won’t make the Phillie Phaitful forget Jimmy Rollins any time soon, but he will sure make the transition to the new era of Phillies baseball seem painless.

6. Francisco Lindor, Shortstop, Cleveland Indians
There was a time in major league baseball when a player like Cal Ripken at shortstop was the deviation from the norm. Then in the early 90s, a new flock of young shortstops like Omar Vizquel, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez and later Nomar Garciaparra to name a few made shortstops an exciting position to watch again. That seems to be what’s brewing in the minors leagues right now. 

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Enter Lindor, who is may have the most potential to be a long-time major league shortstop out of the bunch. The 21-year old, former first round pick is a switch-hitter with plate discipline wise beyond his years. He finally showed some mid-level pop in his bat last season, hitting a career high 11 home runs, but Lindor is better know for putting balls in play, getting extra base hits into the gaps and not striking out. He has above average speed as well, stealing 28 bases in 44 tries.

There is currently no one blocking Lindor in Cleveland this season, but a late season slide in his first taste of Triple-A ball will probably keep him in the minors for one more year. Should he continue to progress offensively and play his above-average sound defense, Lindor could very well make his major league debut by year’s end.

Nov 2, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Corey Seager against the East during the Fall Stars Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

5. Corey Seager, Third Base, Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers second elite prospect cracks the 2015 Top 10 overall list. Seager, who is considered the top prospect in the entire Dodgers system, was the first round draft pick in 2011. He currently plays shortstop, but his 6-foot-4 frame makes him a more likely major league third baseman.

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Seager’s 2014 was so strong that it earned him MVP honors in High-A California League before a late season promotion to Double-A. Overall, Seager went off for a .342 batting average, 20 home runs and 97 RBI while getting on base at an impressive .402 lick. He seemingly has little issue with hitting any pitch of any velocity no matter what location (inside or out) it crosses the plate. His 2014 allowed Seager to jump 13 spots from No. 18 to the Top 5 this year.

Law mentions that at his large stature, Seager is more suited to be at third base. He also seems to think that Seager will have little issue in the switch. At just 20-years old and with veterans Juan Uribe and Jimmy Rollins holding things down for now, expect the Dodgers to let Seager test the waters at Triple-A in 2015.

Oct. 14, 2014; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Addison Russell plays for the Mesa Solar Sox during an Arizona Fall League game against the Scottsdale Scorpions at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

4. Addison Russell, Shortstop, Chicago Cubs

The first member of baseball’s best farm system makes an appearance in the Top 10, and yes it is yet another shortstop. Russell was the centerpiece in the Jeff Samardzija trade and is poised to become the major league’s next best shortstop. The problem is All Star (and troubled) Starlin Castro thinks otherwise. 

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Russell was all over the grid last season, but it all equated to the same thing. He is as smooth as it gets up the middle and he makes fielding tricky plays look rather effortless. He isn’t as speedy as most shortstops, but he is quick and flawless in his execution. Plus, he brings that bat to the position that most shortstops lack.

The 21-year old righty has the ability to hit for average and home runs. In three professional seasons since being the Oakland As first round draft pick in 2011, Russell has a .300 career average and has average 12 home runs per season. That consistency already makes him more attractive than many major league shortstops. Castro is currently blocking his way to the bigs, but Theo Epstein has never been afraid to pull the trigger. If Russell gets out to a fast start, expect Castro to hit the trading block earlier than later.

3. Carlos Correa, Shortstop, Houston Astros

A shortstop? In the Top 10? It can’t be!

Correa moves up one slot from last year, swapping places with Russell. The 20-year old righty’s season was abruptly cut short when he broke his leg sliding into third base. It was a shame, because Correa was putting together a season for the ages slashing .325/.416/.510 before going down.

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Much like fellow Top 10 prospect Corey Seager, Correa is big for a shortstop. Standing at 6-foot-4, Correa does have the tools to play shortstop in the big leagues as his defense is second to none. He will most likely end his career at the hot corner, and his strong arm and infield smarts should allow him to be equally successful there.

Correa has both the bat and the glove to be in the major leagues as soon as 2015. The only real question will be how he recovers from his injury. He and fellow elite prospect Mark Appel will be in spring training, so it is definitely something to keep an eye on as it gets closer to Opening Day.

Nov 2, 2013; Surprise, AZ, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton against the East during the Fall Stars Game at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

2. Byron Buxton, Centerfielder, Minnesota Twins

Buxton, 2014’s No. 1 ranked prospect, had the unluckiest of seasons in 2014. He was injured three different times, including a horrific collision in the outfield late in the year that ended his regular season. It speaks volumes that Buxton, who played an abbreviated season with little stats to show for it, only slipped one slot in the rankings this year.

The 21-year old was the Minnesota Twins first overall pick in 2012. 2013 proved he was well worth it as he put together one of the most memorable seasons in recent history. He strung together a slash line of .334/.424/.520 with 19 doubles, 18 triples, 12 home runs and 55 stolen bases over two levels. He took home the Single-A Midwest league Prospect of the Year and Most Valuable Player Award as well being named Baseball America’s 2013 Minor League Player of the Year.

Law ranks Buxton with an 80 in running ability and arm strength as well as 70 on defense. Despite all of the amazing numbers Buxton is capable of offensively, is it possibly his greatest strength may be in the field? It is quite the scary thought. He probably doesn’t possess the plus-power that Mike Trout is capable of, but he appears to be as well-rounded across the board.

Buxton has been cleared to resume baseball activities. He will probably make an appearance with the Twins in spring training, but seems most likely to start the year briefly in Double-A and then show everyone in Triple-A his skill set. If he proves he is healthy and back to 100 percent, Buxton could see the bigs by August.

Mar 10, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant prior to the game against the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

1. Kris Bryant, Third Base, Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs top prospect put himself on the map last year. While many Chicago Cub fans were drooling over Bryant last season when he was the No. 15 prospect in baseball, he is now known by every baseball fanatic across the land. The only question that remains is when he’ll take over the hot corner.

Bryant, the 23-year old, 2013 first round draft pick concluded his debut season by winning MVP of the 2013 Arizona Fall League. His momentum kept rolling into the 2014 season en route to being named the USA Today AND Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year. Bryant blasted his way to multiple honors behind a minor and major league best 43 home runs over two levels. He has all the tools of a future major league MVP.

He is solid at third base, however Law suggests that he may be more suited for right field with his cannon of an arm and less plays that require a lot of quick decisions. His has a controlled and balanced swing and despite striking out over 160 times, he has plate discipline and the patience of a .400 on base machine. The power was no fluke as Bryant is already able to hang with higher level pitching. There was little drop off from Double-A to his promotion in Triple-A to prove otherwise.

The Cubs made some interesting moves this offseason, leaving only Mike Olt as a third base option. Bryant has only 174 professional games under his belt, and some may feel it is too soon to anoint him the next third baseman. If Bryant starts the season in Triple-A, there is little doubt to where he will be finishing the 2015 season.

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