It’s Time to Officially Start Worrying About Byron Buxton

As recently as last year, Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton ranked at the top of most “top prospects” lists. Despite the fact that he’s still just 22-years-old, his performance at the Major League level has been alarming to say the least. While it may be premature, there are certainly some troubling signs concerning Buxton’s ability to adjust to Big League pitching that we need to look at.

It was announced on Wednesday that he was optioned back to Triple-A Rochester to work out the kinks. Therefore, the organization identified the same issues we’re going to go through.

Let’s get the simple metric out of the way first: average. While I view on-base percentage to be a much better indicator at evaluating a player, most people turn to his stat first. In 46 games with the Twins last season, Buxton hit .209 with two home runs and six RBI’s and lost the honor of hitting in the leadoff spot in the order, falling to the nine slot somewhat quickly. This season, through 17 games, he hit an embarrassing .156 with no homers and two RBI’s.

In terms of on-base percentage, his numbers are also underwhelming, as you might imagine. Last season, he managed an OBP of .250 and this year, he’s at just .208. Considered to be a clear leadoff hitting prospect through the minor leagues, where he hit .300 with an OBP of .382, Buxton’s inability to adapt to Major League pitching has been mind-boggling.

What might be most telling is his strikeout rate. In 63 career MLB games, he’s struck out 68 times (39.1% of at-bats). Compare that to his 23% rate in his minor league days. Looking further into the strikeout numbers, 76.4% of his strikeouts have come by five or less pitches by opposing pitchers and 58.8% of the whiffs have come with no runners on base. Those are also very concerning and means that he really struggles when getting behind in the count and also has a hard time sparking any kind of offense for his team.

If you need even more proof that his plate approach at the Major League level hasn’t worked, keep in mind that in 187 career plate appearances, he has drawn just eight walks. That begs the question of whether or not Buxton’s struggles are just as much mental as they are physical right now.

Here’s a really in-depth breakdown of his swing.

As you can see, there are some issues, but there are also some areas where Buxton’s swing is fundamentally sound.

Regardless of where the issue lies, there is one, and Twins fans should start worrying about what their top prospect’s offensive ability might end up being at the Major League level. If he ends up being anything but a leadoff hitter for the club, he will be considered a bust. Sometimes prospects take time to develop and need to see a large sample size of Major League pitching before becoming acclimated, but it’s obvious Buxton isn’t ready… even though he was by all indications based on his minor league performance.

The silver lining? At least he’s already an elite player defensively.

As a baseball community, we should all be rooting for the youngster to figure things out at the dish. In today’s MLB, there are an astounding number of excellent players under the age of 25, and Buxton has the tools to become another name on the growing list. He just needs to find a way to put those tools to good use and produce on the field.