Washington Nationals, Shortstops Lead 2016 NL ROY candidates

Sep 18, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich (21) is tagged out by Washington Nationals second baseman Trea Turner (7) in the tenth inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

In practical terms, Major League Baseball’s 2015 season came to an end when Kansas City Royals closer Wade Davis struck out New York Mets shortstop Wilmer Flores in the bottom of the 12th inning of Game 5 of the World Series. In a more general sense, the season doesn’t truly end until the greatest performers of the season receive the honors they are due. So, with Thursday’s announcement that Josh Donaldson and Bryce Harper are the American League and National League Most Valuable Players, the season is now over.

With award season done, it’s time to look toward 2016. Jason Burke previously took a look at four candidates who could be challengers for the 2016 AL Rookie of the Year. Today, we’ll look at the NL.

More from Call to the Pen

There are also four really good candidates in the NL—at shortstop. But more on that later. The NL has a surprising amount of players who could make a significant impact. Some obviously have stronger cases than others, but the list of names that could win the award is an impressive assortment of talent.

Winning the ROY is a good indicator of future success. 2015’s winner, Kris Bryant of the Chicago Cubs, looks like he could be a once-in-a-generation talent as he set the Cubs rookie record with 26 home runs. The five previous NL winners are Jacob deGrom, Jose Fernandez, Harper, Craig Kimbrel and Buster Posey, who account for 12 All-Star Game appearances, two MVPs and four Silver Slugger Awards.

To see who could join this illustrious list, we’ll begin where all baseball games begin: on the mound.

Next: Pitchers

Jul 12, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; USA pitcher Lucas Giolito throws against the World Team in the first inning during the All Star Futures Game at Great American Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

When Bryant won the NL ROY, he broke a short streak of dominance by pitchers, as they had won three of the previous four. Pitchers could take back the award in 2016, and Lucas Giolito and Tyler Glasnow are the best candidates to win.

The Nationals were careful with Giolito in 2015, keeping him in extended spring training to keep his innings down after Tommy John surgery in August of 2012. The Nationals have been successful with TJ recipients, and they want Giolito’s name added to the list. Despite the late start, Giolito struck out a combined 131 batters in 117 innings between High-A and Double-A and had a 3.15 ERA to go along with a 3.54 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

If Giolito starts 2016 in Double-A or Triple-A and continues to dominate, he’ll get promoted to the majors quickly. The Nationals were a gigantic disappointment, largely due to injuries and under-performance from key players, and the the team needs to decide if they want to win now or build toward the future. Their starting rotation could be set next season, but Tanner Roark pitched most of the season out of the bullpen and was unconvincing in his 12 starts.

With Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister testing the free agent market, there are plenty of innings available for Giolito. He has the resume and the skills, but the Nationals may continue to treat him gingerly so that he doesn’t increase his workload too quickly.

The Pirates may have 2016’s Noah Syndergaard in Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings and had an ERA under 3.00 for the third consecutive season. In his eight starts in Triple-A, Glasnow was 2-1 with a 2.20 ERA and had 48 Ks in 41 innings. Opponents hit .195 against him in 2015.

Working in Glasnow’s favor is the Pirates’ pitching situation. A.J. Burnett retired and J.A. Happ is currently a free agent, so the Bucs need to fill those vacancies, assuming the Pirates don’t re-sign Happ. Glasnow will probably start the season in Triple-A, but he’ll be in the majors before too long.

Other potential candidates include the Diamondbacks’ Aaron Blair and the Reds’ Robert Stephenson. Blair was quietly impressive in 2015, and he could force himself into a thin D-backs rotation. Stephenson has been plagued by control problems for a few seasons now, but he showed signs of improvement in the middle of 2015 and has one of the most electric arms in the minors.

Other potential impact rookies: Tyrell Jenkins (Braves), Pierce Johnson (Cubs), Zach Davies (Brewers), Julio Urias (Dodgers).

Next: Infielders

October 9, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager (5) hits a ground rule double in the third inning against the New York Mets in game one of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

If you fancy yourself a gambler, put your money on a shortstop winning the NL ROY in 2016. Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor hijacked the AL ROY storyline in 2015, and shortstops are likely to do the same to the NL next year.

This discussion must begin with the Dodgers’ Corey Seager. The Dodgers are treating him almost identically to the way they treated centerfielder Joc Pederson, and Seager hasn’t disappointed. In 27 big league games, he hit .337 with a .425 on base percentage and slugged .561. He struggled in the postseason, but it was a very promising start, and Seager has no significant challenger for starting shortstop.

Next is Orlando Arcia. The Milwaukee prospect’s closest comparison is Lindor, as his defensive skills are off the charts and he has steadily improved with the bat. He broke out in 2015 and was named MiLB.com’s Breakout Prospect of the Year. With Jean Segura regressing offensively, Arcia is ready to take over.

More from Call to the Pen

While Ian Desmond laid an egg at shortstop for the Nationals, Trea Turner was gallivanting in Triple-A, where he hit .314/.353/.431 with 14 stolen bases in 48 games. With Desmond assuredly gone to free agency, Turner should assume the everyday duties at shortstop. He is deft enough with the glove to play more than adequate defense and his career .322/.384/.454 line in the minors suggests he’ll contribute offensively.

Other shortstops to possibly get playing time in the majors are Gavin Cecchini of the Mets and J.P. Crawford of the Phillies. Cecchini could potentially move up to the majors if Flores and Ruben Tejada are inadequate, and Crawford is a top-10 prospect who may be ready by season’s end after spending most of 2015 in Double-A.

With such a deep group of shortstops, players like Josh Bell of the Pirates may be too overshadowed to garner significant attention.

Next: Outfielders

Mar 15, 2014; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Texas Rangers outfielder Nick Williams slaps hands with a bat boy after hitting a home run in the ninth inningagainst the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. The Rangers won 16-15. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Compared to the other two groups, the outfield is thin, but not without talent.

Jesse Winker of the Reds played the entire season at Double-A Pensacola, where he hit .282/.390/.433 with 13 home runs. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story, however, as he hit .316/.426/.516 after June 25 and his strikeout rate dropped from 19.9 percent in 2014 to 15.8 percent in 2015. The Reds need a left fielder in 2016, and it could be Winker.

Nick Williams was part of the bounty the Phillies got from the Rangers when they traded ace Cole Hamels to Texas. Williams will have to compete with other young players such as Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr for playing time, but Williams is one of the best outfield prospects in the game, and he hit a combined .303/.354/.491 with 17 home runs in 2015, all of it spent in Double-A.

Hunter Renfroe has a nightmare of a situation blocking him. Currently, the Padres have Wil Myers, Matt Kemp and Melvin Upton Jr. in the outfield. General Manager A.J. Preller may conduct another offseason makeover, which could open some room for Renfroe, but he may not get enough playing time to compete for ROY.

Next: Four Potential 2016 AL ROY Candidates

The last noteworthy candidate is Billy McKinney of the Chicago Cubs. McKinney looks like it won’t be much longer until he’s ready for the majors, but the Cubs will likely turn to free agency to fill the vacancy in center field and Kyle Schwarber may be shoehorned into left field. Jorge Soler isn’t likely to be ousted as long as he is healthy, so McKinney will likely have to see what the Cubs decide to do with Schwarber before he knows if he’ll play a significant role in 2016.

Other candidates: Brett Phillips (Brewers), Brandon Nimmo (Mets).

Home/MLB Prospects