Arizona Diamondbacks could be surprise team in 2016
When you woke up this morning, the Arizona Diamondbacks were 56-57. Did you see them flirting with a .500 record on Opening Day? ESPN didn’t: it had the Diamondbacks as a 65-97 team. Neither did Sports Illustrated, which also said the Dbacks would win 65 games. FanGraphs was slightly more generous, pegging them for around 73 wins.
No one saw it. Our colleagues over at Venom Strikes noted that the Diamondbacks were going to cut payroll in 2015—which they have—which is often a sign of punting on the current year. This comes after the team had a disappointing 2014 when some considered them a playoff contender.
The way the Diamondbacks have played this season, you’d think they’d raised payroll. Entering play Wednesday, the Diamondbacks had the third best offense in the majors and best in the National League in terms of runs per game. A young core of hitters like first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, centerfielder A.J. Pollock, and outfielders Yasmany Tomas and David Peralta are all having productive seasons; in Goldschmidt’s case, a MVP-caliber season. If the Dbacks’ pitching staff wasn’t so mediocre, they could be a threat for the NL Wildcard: as a staff, the Diamondbacks were 20th in earned run average, 20th in WHIP and 21st in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The bullpen has been a little better, but not enough to overcome the rotation’s shortcomings.
Fans of the Dbacks should be encouraged, though, because the team is talented and young: Arizona hitters’ average age is the youngest in the NL and second youngest in the game—only Houston is younger—while the pitchers’ average age is the second youngest in the NL and third in the majors—only the Rays and Braves are younger.
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Even better, the team has a loaded farm system. Most importantly, that farm system is teeming with pitchers, a couple of whom are close to being ready to make the jump to the majors. Aaron Blair has been an effective pitcher ever since he was drafted, especially since his promotion to Double-A in the middle of last season: since then, he has made 29 starts for a 2.68 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 2.70 K/BB. He also pitched for Team USA at the Pan American Games in Toronto. Braden Shipley has been successful despite control problems—3.59 BB/9 innings pitched—but is pitching well in Double-A. Yoan Lopez, a Cuban signee from last offseason, has incredible tools and is honing his craft in Double-A as well. Archie Bradley looked like he was going to be a Rookie of the Year candidate before being hit in the head by a line drive and shoulder problems derailed his season.
Those are the pitchers close to the majors, but there are more. 2015 Second Round draft pick Alex Young was picked after going 9-3 with a 2.22 ERA, .210 average against and 4.68 K/BB at TCU. He was one of five consecutive picks the Diamondbacks used on pitchers after drafting Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson No. 1 overall. (Speaking of whom, Swanson made his professional debut yesterday after missing time due to a concussion, going 0-for-2 with a walk and a run for Class-A Short Season Hillsboro.)
The future looks bright in the desert. Youthful and talented teams like the Astros and Cubs are ahead of schedule on their rebuilding efforts, and the Diamondbacks look primed to be one of the surprise teams of 2016. Signing a free agent pitcher this offseason isn’t out of the question and would speed up the process. Pitchers like David Price and Johnny Cueto will be out of the Diamondbacks’ price range, but there are plenty of cheaper options to be had this offseason.
Goldschmidt, Tomas, Pollock and shortstop Nick Ahmed are all under team control through at least 2018, as is Tommy John surgery recipient Patrick Corbin. A rotation of Corbin, Bradley, Blair and Shipley and a free agent, plus a young, potent offense would keep the Diamondbacks competitive in the NL West.