Rangers, Nationals prospects dominating High-A

Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

In this week’s High-A recap, a top prospect gets promoted and several California League hitters are on torrid paces.

In the California League, the Modesto Nuts have moved into first place of the North division after going 5-1 this week. They maintain a one-game lead over the second place San Jose Giants and a two-game lead over third place Visalia Rawhide. In the South Division, Rancho Cucamonga and High Desert are tied atop the division while the Lancaster JetHawks keep this division one the tightest in the minors, as they are only a half a game out of first. None of the teams are above .500.

In the Carolina League, the Wilmington Blue Rocks fell from first to fourth in the Northern Division, while the Frederick Keys now lead the division by two games. The Winston-Salem Dash lead the Southern Division by 2.5 games over first-half champion Myrtle Beach and 3.5 games over the Carolina Mudcats.

The Clearwater Threshers lead the Florida State League North Division by 1.5 games over the Daytona Tortugas, who are red-hot at 8-2 over their past 10 games and are on a six-game win streak. Two red-hot teams lead the South Division: the Palm Beach Cardinals lead the division by 1.5 games over the Bradenton Marauders, and both teams are 8-2 over the past 10 games.

For notable performances, let’s begin in the Carolina League…

Next: Carolina League

Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Carolina League
Northern

Frederick Keys (Orioles)—17-14
Lynchburg Hillcats (Indians)—15-16
Potomac Nationals (Nationals)—14-15
Wilmington Blue Rocks (Royals)—14-16

Southern

Winston-Salem Dash (White Sox)—18-12
Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Cubs)—16-15
Carolina Mudcats (Braves)—15-16
Salem Red Sox (Red Sox)—13-18

Notable Performances
The Nationals promoted their best prospect, pitcher Lucas Giolito, to Double-A Saturday. Through 11 starts, the righthander was 3-5 with a 2.71 earned run average, 1.22 WHIP and 86 strikeouts in 69 2/3 innings. In Thursday’s start, his most recent, he allowed one earned run in six innings and struck out six. In his second full season since having Tommy John surgery in August of 2012, Giolito is striking out hitters at a career-high 11.1 batters per nine innings. His overall numbers could be even more dominant, as he’s suffered from an uncharacteristically high .352 batting average on balls in play—conversely, he’s also allowing a career-low 0.13 home runs per nine innings, so the extra base runners have only marginally hurt him. Don’t be surprised if he’s pitching in the majors in 2016. (Or September 2015?)

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Lynchburg Hillcats first baseman and Cleveland Indians prospect Nellie Rodriguez is slowing developing into a reliable power hitter. In 2013, his first full season as a professional, he combined to slash .252/.342/.378 with 10 home runs and 50 RBIs in 120 games. This season, he is slashing .278/.360/.511 with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs. His home run rate—22 at bats per home run—is almost identical to 2014, but he already has 30 doubles in 2015 after hitting 32 in 2014. That is the biggest driver in the rise of his slugging percentage. His K-rate is up slightly from last season as well, but the added power mitigates those minor negative effects.

Myrtle Beach outfielder Mark Zagunis has been on a roller coaster the past two weeks: from July 8 to July 17, he had one hit in 28 at bats, then promptly went 7-for-19 over his next five games. Now he’s back in a rut, going hitless in four straight. What that doesn’t tell you is the incredible plate discipline Zagunis has. In his first full professional season after being drafted in the third round in last year’s draft out of Virginia Tech, Zagunis is hitting .278/.415/.411, and has drawn more walks (68) than punch-outs (65) in 92 games. Zagunis leads the Carolina League in OBP and isn’t likely to be caught anytime soon.

Next: Florida State League

Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Florida State League

North

Clearwater Threshers (Phillies)—20-11
Daytona Tortugas (Reds)—17-11
Tampa Yankees (Yankees)—14-15
Brevard County Manatees (Brewers)—13-14
Dunedin Blue Jays (Blue Jays)—11-18
Lakeland Flying Tigers (Tigers)—6-21

South

Palm Beach Cardinals (Cardinals)—20-8
Bradenton Marauders (Pirates)—19-10
Fort Myers Miracle (Twins)—17-13
St. Lucie Mets (Mets)—14-15
Charlotte Stone Crabs (Rays)—12-17
Jupiter Hammerheads (Marlins)—10-20

Notable Performances
Clint Coulter, the Brewers’ first round pick in 2012, continues to be one of the best power hitters in the Florida State League. Coulter is second in home runs (11) and total bases (153) and is sixth in slugging (.421) in spite of the fact that he hasn’t homered since July 3. In spite of the cold streak, Coulter is having a productive season offensively, as he’s cut his K-rate nearly four percentage points. This is an encouraging development as it’ll manifest itself more when he leaves the oppressive FSL.

Since giving up four runs in four innings on June 17, Twins prospect Kohl Stewart has been very consistent: over his last six starts, Stewart 2-2 with a 1.89 ERA, has gone at least six innings in each start and allowed two earned runs or fewer. In his most recent start on Saturday, Stewart took the loss despite only allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings. Even though he’s been very effective, the convergence of his strikeout and walk rates is slightly troublesome; in 2014, Stewart’s K/BB was 2.58, this season, it is 1.50.

Stewart’s teammate Ryan Eades has not had as much luck recently, but he is still having a nice season overall. The 2013 second-round pick out of Louisiana State gave up six runs in six innings Wednesday; this is after giving up four runs in 6 1/3 innings on July 16. In spite of the consecutive poor outings, Eades’s 3.42 ERA/1.23 WHIP/2.62 K/BB line deserves no derision. Eades has dropped his walk-rate by nearly a full walk per game and has seen his BABIP and HR/9 IP drop more than twenty and 25 points, respectively, from 2014 to 2015.

Next: California League

Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

California League
North

Modesto Nuts (Rockies)—20-9
San Jose Giants (Giants)—19-10
Visalia Rawhide (Diamondbacks)—18-11
Stockton Ports (Athletics)—15-14
Bakersfield Blaze (Mariners)—10-19

South

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Dodgers)—14-14
High Desert Mavericks (Rangers)—13-13
Lancaster JetHawks (Astros)—14-15
Inland Empire 66ers (Angels)—12-15
Lake Elsinore Storm (Padres)—7-22

Notable Performances
Ryan McMahon has been going nuts for the Modesto Nuts the past 10 games, hitting .429 with five home runs and 11 RBIs. That brings his season slash line in the California League to .305/.384/.527 with 13 homers and 55 RBIs. McMahon is the Rockies’ fourth overall prospect according to MLB.com and could see time at Double-A before the season is over. His strikeout rate and walk rates are very similar to 2014, so he is probably benefiting from playing in the hitter-friendly CL, but even though his BABIP is an astronomical .409, it isn’t completely out of the norm considering he posted a .371 BABIP in a combined 185 games from 2013-14.

Lewis Brinson had a monster day Sunday for a trade-conscious franchise: the Texas Rangers prospect was 4-for-5 with a double, two RBIs and a run scored. The productive day capped of an even more productive week where he hit .459/.511/.865, bringing his season line to a robust .327/.411/.588. Brinson, who has high aspirations for a major league career, has cut down on the strikeouts and has significantly improved his walk rate from 8.6 percent to 10.9 percent from 2014 to 2015 and is scalding pitches for a .395 BABIP. The improvement has led to Brinson becoming a more balanced hitter overall: in 2013, even though he hit 21 home runs, he was merely a .237/.322/.427 hitter.

It’s really starting to look as though the Giants hit it big with their 2013 first round pick. Christian Arroyo was 2-for-5 Sunday, capping of a brilliant 10 games where he hit.341. Arroyo doesn’t strike out much—only 46 times in 245 plate appearances in 2015—and draws a decent amount of walks to go with a searing .400 BABIP. Arroyo missed over a month early in the season, but it hasn’t seemed to bother him. He had eight hits immediately after returning from the injury and his average has dipped below .300 only nine days since then.

All stats from MiLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.com.

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