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Cincinnati Reds’ Stephenson continues dominant streak

By Brody Hilgenkamp

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Something dramatically changed in Reds pitching prospect Robert Stephenson between May 23 and May 29. On the 23rd, he needed 106 pitches to get through 4 2/3 innings and gave up two runs on two hits and five walks. He struck out 11, but it wasn’t the type of performance a top prospect should spin on a regular basis.

In his next start, on the 29th, he went seven shutout innings and walked only one batter and struck out 10. It only took 97 pitches. Stephenson kept that momentum going Wednesday night when he threw six scoreless innings and only allowed two hits, struck out five and walked four.

That’s more like it.

Stephenson’s dominance the past two months means he is back on track to become the Reds’ future ace. The Reds are likely to deal both current ace Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake in the coming days—Cueto is one of the most talented trade chips on the market, while Leake is garnering more wide-spread interest—which will clear the way for Stephenson to fulfill his birthright.

If anything could keep him from fulfilling his destiny, it is his gifted but wild right arm. He had struggled with walks ever since he got promoted to Double-A Pensacola late in the 2013 season, but the most pronounced struggles there came in 2014. That season he issued 4.87 walks per nine innings, which caused his ERA and WHIP to balloon to a 4.74 and 1.38 WHIP, respectively. The struggles continued early this season, as his walk rate was a stratospheric 6.64/9 IP through his first eight starts, of which the May 23 start was the eighth. Over the next six starts, however, that number dropped to 3.23.

Stephenson attributes a more mature pitching approach to his recent success. He has a fastball that easily touches the upper 90s and a snapping curveball, so the arsenal has plenty of firepower. But if the bullets never hit their mark, they don’t do any good, so he toned it down just enough to where he could pound the strike zone more consistently, and the results have been fabulous: in his first eight starts he had a 5.26 ERA and .237 AVG, but over his next six those dropped to 2.08 and .154.

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You’ll notice that even when he’s struggling, opposing offenses still don’t hit him hard. In essence, he was beating himself. With that fastball/curveball combo in his quiver, Stephenson has struck out 9.9 hitters per nine innings and held offenses to a .217 average for his career.

The positive effects of taming his beastly right arm have carried over since his promotion to Triple-A Louisville. In four starts, he is 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 21 strikeouts. And even though his K-rate is down slightly to 8.6/9 IP, he’s walked a manageable 10 batters in 22 innings.

Stephenson’s stellar production over his past 10 starts between Pensacola and Louisville is comparable to past performances in the Southern League, where Pensacola played. Over the past ten seasons, three performances by current major league pitchers stand out; Diamondbacks pitcher Archie Bradley in 2013; the Brewers’ Wily Peralta in 2011; and the Nationals’ Gio Gonzalez in 2007:

  • Stephenson:   26.7 K%      10.0 BB%      .179 AVG       2.51 ERA
  • Bradley:          23.5 K%       11.7 BB%      .210 AVG       1.97 ERA
  • Peralta:           23.6 K%       9.7 BB%       .239 AVG       3.46 ERA
  • Gonzalez:       30.3 K%       9.3 BB%       .210 AVG       3.18 ERA

All are favorable comparisons for Stephenson to become a major leaguer, but Stephenson has higher ambitions; he wants to be an ace. If he continues to improve his ability to throw strikes, Stephenson will be a key member of a Reds rotation that could feature Michael Lorenzen, Anthony DeSclafani, a healthy Homer Bailey and possibly even Nick Howard and Amir Garrett, who are sharpening their skills in High-A.

All stats from MiLB.com, FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com

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