Cincinnati Reds Best Trade Deadline Candidates
Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Johnny Cueto has fewer than four starts left as the ace of the Cincinnati Reds. Yesterday he pitched a gem, tossing eight innings and only allowing one run on four hits and eight strikeouts. He’s pitching like the front-line starter he has been for the past five seasons—which is exactly why the Reds need to get rid of him. Cueto, 29, is the best pitcher on a team that won’t be able to resign him once he becomes a free agent this offseason. He, like fellow free-agent-to-be pitcher Mike Leake, second baseman Brandon Phillips and closer Aroldis Chapman, who notched his 16th save of the season yesterday, are on the trading block because the Reds need to hoard prospects. The franchise will hold on to these players until after the All-Star Game since the Mid Summer Classic is in the Queen City, but make no mistake, the Reds are in rebuild mode.
The Reds have quality prospects in their system (more on that in a moment). But if the Reds want to compete in a division that looks like it will be very competitive for a long time—the Cubs and Pirates are loaded with high-end young talent and the Cardinals are, well, the Cardinals—the Reds will need a fertile farm . Even with All-Star caliber players like Cueto, Chapman, third baseman Todd Frazier and first baseman Joey Votto, the Reds are 15 games behind the Cardinals and 5.5 behind the second wildcard spot. A trade, or a couple trades, is necessary.
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The Reds do have some competition that could undercut their prospect binge. Teams that want a starter could go for Cole Hamels, Mat Latos or Jeff Samardzija. Need a bat? In addition to Phillips, Carlos Gomez, Ben Zobrist, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Howard and Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez have all been mentioned as trade candidates. Need bullpen help? The Brewers are dangling Francisco Rodriguez and the Phillies want to get rid of Jonathan Papelbon.
July will be hot in Cincinnati. Here are some of the teams that present the best trade options for the Reds. But first, a look at their farm system.
Next: Reds Prospects
Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Down on the farm system, the Reds have GotC No. 22 prospect in outfielder Jesse Winker and the No. 34 prospect in pitcher Robert Stephenson. Pitchers Nick Howard and Amir Garrett are their No. 3 and 4 prospects according to MLB.com. Shortstop Alex Blandino and outfielder Phil Ervin are the team’s highest rated position players after Winker.
One notable thing about this group of prospects concerns the three pitchers: Stephenson (4.9 walks per nine innings), Howard (46 walks in 34 1/3 innings) and Garrett (3.9 BB/9 IP) all are figuring out how to control their incredible arms. They all have mid-90s heat—in Stephenson’s case upper-90s—and all three have the potential to be the core of the Reds’ future rotation or bullpen as long as they don’t hurt their own causes.
Stephenson had a rough go at Double-A in 2014, posting a 4.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and abysmal 1.89 K/BB ratio. He also was tied for the most home runs allowed in the Southern League with 18. This season, his ERA is down to 3.68 and he’s holding opponents to a .197 average, but his walk rate is exactly the same as last season and entering play Thursday he was tied for second in the league in home runs allowed (eight).
Howard made five starts to begin the year at High-A. The first two were impressive, but he got moved to the bullpen after the last three. He’s been there ever since, and he’s been plagued by inconsistency. In 15 appearances, he’s given up at least three earned runs in four of them and four runs twice. Yesterday, he walked three batters and lasted one-third of an inning. This is only his first full season of professional baseball after he was the closer for Virginia’s 2014 College World Series team, so there is still plenty of time to improve on his walk rate.
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Garrett is making promising strides in High-A. He decided to play baseball full time this season and the results are encouraging. The Las Vegas native is 3-5 with a 3.00 ERA and is holding offenses to a .244 clip. I mentioned the walk rate above, but is hasn’t hurt him because he has improved his strikeout rate from 8.6 batters per nine innings to 10.
Ervin is having the most impressive season of the position players in the system. He is hitting .258/ .344 OBP/ .428 SLG with 11 home runs, most in the Florida State League. Ervin does not waste at bats and has only struck out in 16.3 percent of his plate appearances entering play Thursday; he also draws lots of walks. Blandino is having a solid season as well, slashing at a .295/.372/.428 clip and played in the FSL All-Star game with Ervin. He could be a solid shortstop in the future.
Next: San Francisco Giants
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The Giants could be an interesting trade candidate for the Reds. The Giants are in a race for the National League West with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The rotation past Madison Bumgarner (2.99 ERA) and Chris Heston (3.78) is shaky. Tim Hudson is very average, Tim Lincecum and Jake Peavy are hurt and haven’t pitched well.
One thing working in the Giants’ favor is the return of Matt Cain, who is scheduled today to make his first start since July of last season, which could mitigate their need for a starting pitcher. If the Giants decide they need starting pitching help, Leake or Cueto would be a good fit for the Giants. The Giants have lots of pitching depth in the minors and would have a decent chance to resign either pitcher to contract extensions.
The Reds would likely want some combination of Kyle Crick (3.16 ERA, .221 average against in Double-A), Keury Mella (3.26 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in High-A), Tyler Beede (combined 2.94 ERA and 1.22 WHIP between High-a and Double-A) and Adaberto Mejia (1.52 ERA in five starts at Double-A). Triple-A starters Ty Blach and Clayton Blackburn could also be in the mix.
The fact that the Giants are a trade candidate means the Dodgers are too. They could use another starter behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke and would be more than willing to shell out the money to re-sign Cueto to an extension. The Dodgers, however, don’t have the depth the Giants do. I doubt they’ll be willing to part with Corey Seager or Julio Urias, either.
Next: Royals/Twins
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I’m going to group the next two teams together because they play in the same division; the Royals and the Twins.
The Royals are rumored to be floating Brandon Finnegan to teams. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and teams have to be curious after watching him help pitch the Royals to game seven of the World Series last year. Omar Infante is one of the worst-performing second baseman in the majors, so adding Phillips would be an upgrade. If the Royals wanted to add Leake as well, they’d probably need to throw in Raul Mondesi Jr. or another pitching prospect like Sean Manaea or Kyle Zimmer.
The Twins come into play if they decide they want to continue boxing with the Tigers and Royals. The Twins are 4.5 games behind the Royals for the American League Central Division lead and are in an incredibly tight Wild Card race where nine teams are within five games of the lead.
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If the Twins decide to stay in the ring, they’ll need help in the bullpen, so Chapman is the obvious trade candidate. The Twins’ bullpen ranks 25th in the majors in ERA and and 28th in K/BB ratio.
The Twins have one the best farm systems in baseball and could dip into it to make a trade. Outfielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano, who is being called to the majors are likely untouchable, but pitcher Jose Berrios (8-3, 3.08 ERA, Southern League-leading 92 Ks), shortstops Nick Gordon and Jorge Polanco and pitcher Kohl Stewart (3.56 ERA, High-A) will all be involved in the trade talks.
Next: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Toronto Blue Jays also need rotation help. The offense, with MVP-candidate third baseman Josh Donaldson, outfielder Jose Bautista, DH Edwin Encarnacion, shortstop Jose Reyes and others is a couple bad pitches away from hanging very large crooked numbers. But the pitching staff is 24th in the majors in ERA and 23rd in K/BB ratio. This makes Cueto a good fit, especially considering the Blue Jays are only a game behind the Orioles in the AL East.
The Reds could ask for pitcher Daniel Norris in the trade, although it’s tough to see the Blue Jays being willing to part with the southpaw. (These next few sentences will sound like Norris is a mediocre pitcher, but he’s not; he’s one of the best prospects in the game who is ironing out some kinks.) He had mixed results in five major-league starts, going 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA. He walked 12 batters in his 23 1/1 major league innings while only striking out 18. Now pitching in Triple-A, Norris has a 3.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 11 starts. He’s still struggling to find the strike zone (4.2 BB/9 IP) and gave up six runs, four earned, in his start yesterday.
Outfielder Dalton Pompey struggled in 23 games in the majors this season. He was demoted, then demoted again. He’s been hot since then, slashing .378/.435/.634 with five home runs at Double-A. Jay Bruce is only signed through the 2016 season (with a team option for 2017), and if the Reds don’t want to pay Bruce, a trade that brings Pompey would be an easy replacement. The drawback here is the Reds lose a power bat.
Pitchers Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, Sean Reid-Foley, catcher Max Pentecost and shortstop Richard Urena all are having varying degrees of success in the minors. Most of their names would come up in trade talks as well.
Next: Texas Rangers
Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
An intriguing trade option and one that could work out very well for both teams involved is if the Reds wanted to trade with the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are in a similar situation as the Twins in that they need to decide soon if they want to go for it this year or rebuild for the future. The Rangers, again, like the Twins, need help in the bullpen, as it ranks 28th in the majors in ERA and 27th in K/BB. With the Rangers sitting in the thick of the wild card race, it might be worth it to go for it, although no one would fault them for sticking with what they have.
The Rangers have a minor league system chock full of toolsy position players and soon-to-be-ready pitching prospects. If they wanted to get Chapman and Phillips, they could make the trade work—again, this all hinges on if the Rangers decide they want to win now. The Rangers lost again last night and are 3-7 in their last 10 games, so they might just be playing themselves out of the buyers role.
Joey Gallo won’t be involved in the trade, but that doesn’t mean a trade can’t happen. Outfielders Nomar Mazara, Lewis Brinson and Nick Williams scream athleticism. Mazara is hitting .288/.366/.455 with nine homers at Double-A after hitting .271/.362/.478 with 22 homers between two levels in 2014. He could be ready for the majors as soon as next year. Williams, Mazara’s teammate in Double-A, is having an almost identical season (.282/.344/.439, eight homers). Brinson is tearing up High-A ball with his .297/.381/.509 line, including six homers. He has cut down on his K-rate from 38 percent in 2013 to 20.7 percent in 2015 entering play Wednesday.
Throw in Ryan Cordell, who bashed 13 home runs and hit .311/.376/.528 before his promotion to Double-A, and there are plenty of bats to make a trade. Also, Jorge Alfaro, a very athletic catcher, has the potential to be a defensive anchor once he refines the athleticism. He also won’t be deadweight offensively, as he has the pop to hit 15-20 homers a season.
As many hitters as the Rangers have, it’s even more noteworthy the pitching depth they could use to make a trade. Jake Thompson (Double-A, 3.77 ERA), Luke Jackson (4.19 ERA, two levels), Luis Ortiz (1.72 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) and Anthony Ranaudo, who has made two starts in the majors, could all be utilized in trade.
All stats from MiLB.com, FanGraphs.com and Baseball-Reference.com
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