Phillies’ Eflin, Diamondbacks’ Shipley Highlight Pitching Talent in AA

GotC’s No. 43 prospect Braden Shipley (Arizona Diamondbacks) had a noteworthy start Friday night for the Mobile BayBears. He went six innings, gave up two runs and struck out nine. But that’s not why it was noteworthy. Neither is the fact that his ERA is now only 2.64 in 30 2/3 innings. 

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Shipley’s latest gem is noteworthy because it’s another reminder that the largest collection of pitching potential is in Double-A. Fellow Mobile rotation mates Yoan Lopez and Aaron Blair have also lived up to their billing, Rays prospect Blake Snell has yet to allow a run in 2015 and Dylan Bundy is once again baffling hitters for the Orioles in Bowie.

I haven’t even mentioned Julio Urias, arguably the best pitcher in the minors, who has maintained the momentum of his hot start.

In all, of the 27 pitchers in GotC’s top 50 prospects, 10 are in Double-A, and that doesn’t include those who nearly made the top 50 (like Blair) or those who rank among the top prospects within a specific franchise.

The Eastern League is especially full of quality arms; just look at the names on the leaderboards. GotC’s No. 12 and 21 prospects in Tyler Glasnow and Luis Severino pitch for EL teams, as do Nationals prospect Joe Ross and Phillies prospects Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin.

Eflin oftentimes flies under the radar because the Phillies’ farm system isn’t regarded as fertile. Eflin, however, is building a solid case tat he can pitch in the middle of the Fightin’ Sandbergs’ future rotation. Eflin had a solid 2013, going 7-6 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and followed that up with a 10-7/3.80/1.32 effort in the hitter-friendly California League in 2014.

Most of the uptick in ERA can be attributed to the nearly 50-point bump in his Batting Average on Balls In Play from 2013 to 2014, especially considering his strikeout to walk ratio, which was already acceptable, improved from 2.77 to 3.00 over the same span. Now that he’s away from the launching pads in the CL, Eflin’s BABIP is back down to .233 and he’s only allowed 1.88 walks per nine innings. He’s had one bad start this season, when he got tagged for five earned runs in five innings Wednesday.

Nola has had an equally impressive start to 2015, posting a 2.27 ERA and minuscule 0.92 WHIP, raising the possibility of a big-league call up. He is a future front-line starter according to some scouts. 

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Eflin has sneaked through the prospect pipeline, but Glasnow and Severino have too much of a track record to be overlooked. Glasnow led the Florida State League in ERA (1.74) and was second in strikeouts (157) in 2014. Moving up a level hasn’t slowed him down, as he’s allowed a mere five runs and struck out 28 batters in 25 2/3 innings. Free passes were a concern last season, but he’s cut his BB/9 IP almost in half—he walked 4.13 in 2014, but has only given out 2.10 thus far in 2015. He’s faced 96 batters this season, and nearly 30 percent of them never put the ball in play and he’s not giving teams the first 90 feet needed to score, so plating a runner is now an even more difficult task against Glasnow.

Severino has never had an ERA above 2.80 or an average against above .250 in any season as a professional. He’s also never walked more than 2.40 batters per nine innings. This season, he’s at 2.77 in 26 innings. It’s of no consequence due to the small sample size and because it hasn’t inflated his ERA, which sits firmly at 2.77

Joe Ross, acquired in the Wil Myers three-team trade between San Diego, Washington and Tampa Bay, has struck out 36 batters in 32 innings, leading to a sterling 2.81 ERA. That swing-and-miss capability has kept his slight up-tick in walk rate from hurting him—he walked 2.55 batters per nine innings from 2013-2014, and has walked 11 batters for a 3.09 BB/9, in 2015. His batting average against has held close to his norm, so some early control issues shouldn’t hurt him in the long run. Ross, along with GotC’s No. 4 prospect Lucas Giolito, are part of the future of the Nationals’ rotation, since it’s unlikely the franchise will be able to keep all of its current arsenal.