Toronto Blue Jays Gambling Future on Rookies?

Sean Doyle of Jays Journal is reporting that the Toronto Blue Jays could start the 2015 season with whopping six rookies on their Opening Day roster. Given the trade for Josh Donaldson and the inking of Russell Martin and Johan Santana, Toronto is clearly trying to win in 2015. But can a franchise reach the playoffs relying on such a large crop of young talent?

Let’s take a look at the six top prospects, and see if Toronto’s gamble is worth the risk.

Dalton Pompey

Dalton Pompey looks primed for a solid season after jumping four levels in just one season and ultimately posting a 104 wRC+ in a brief cup of coffee with the Jays. His strikeout rate did rise to an absurd 27.9% in his 43 big league at-bats. But small sample size is known to skew data, and Pompey held a strong 1.65 K/BB ratio in his MiLB career.

Massive hype follows Pompey after his breakout 2014 season, but one must remember that we are talking about a 22 year-old 16th round pick that totaled only 16 home runs and a .284 batting average in his minor league career.

Thus, I believe most projection systems, which are pegging the youngster for a WAR ranging from 0.7-1.5, will hold. He may not be the Rookie of the Year, but a decent bat, excellent speed, and solid defense will make Pompey well worth his spot in the starting lineup.

Devon Travis

Traded for Anthony Gose early in the offseason, Devon Travis has earned praise for his high-contact, high-on-base-percentage approach that could pay large dividends for the Jays this season.

To be honest, however, I’m not so sold on Travis at the plate. His swing, while short, has a lot of moving parts. And the youngster often lunges towards the incoming pitch, leaving him susceptible to offspeed and sapping his power.

More from Call to the Pen

Travis does, however, have a lot going for him in the statistics department. He owns a .321 batting average in nearly one thousand minor league at-bats, and a high ground ball rate tempers concerns about a career .347 BABIP. Further, Travis has batted .297 with a 3/2 K/BB ratio against MLB Top 20 Prospects.

FanGraphs does (what I think to be) the best job forecasting Travis’ 2015 season, predicting .265/.324/.386 line worthy of a 1.8 WAR. The Jays would be more than happy with that output from at a position of need.

Daniel Norris

For a man currently residing in a van behind a Walmart, the most intriguing part of Daniel Norris’ life is, believe it or not, his baseball game.

The southpaw posted a 2.53 across three MiLB levels in 2014. Continuing that success this Spring Training, Norris owns a 2.41 ERA, a 10.1 K/9, and impressively stingy 1.9 BB/9 mark.

Add in the fact that Norris has a nasty curve and is a consensus Top-25 MLB prospect, and you get a player who could not only be a significant contributor to Toronto, but might even contend for the Rookie of the Year award, as well.

Aaron Sanchez

Baseball America’s 27th prospect in the game, Aaron Sanchez has loads of pressure to succeed following Marcus Stroman’s disastrous injury. The 2010 first rounder has started over 80% of his minor league outings, however, I believe the powerful righty’s future lies in the pen.

You can’t argue with the numbers. Sanchez’ strikeout rate, once sitting at an impressive 13.3 K/9, bottomed out at a whopping 7.5 K/9 last season. It’s not like his control improved either, as Sanchez consistently posts walk rates at or above 4.8 K/9, a mark that would have ‘led’ all 48 major league qualifying pitchers in 2014.

Sanchez’ stuff would certainly play up in a bullpen role and his control problems would be diminished. The Jays will certainly try to push him into the rotation, but after all, Sanchez posted a 1.09 ERA and 361 ERA+ (261% better than league average) in 24 bullpen appearance in the bigs last year.

This righty belongs in the pen, but given Toronto’s needs, he will be part of the rotation at least to begin the year. Can Sanchez handle a role as a starter?

Miguel Castro & Roberto Osuna

I will not dwell much about Miguel Castro or Roberto Osuna, the final two rookies, as both appear bullpen candidates for the upcoming season.

Still the duo, like the four aforementioned prospects, could prove extremely valuable to Toronto’s squad this regular season.

Verdict

I have to admit, I was originally skeptical of Toronto’s youth oriented approach. However, after taking a closer look at each rookie’s track record, I could see each prospect playing a crucial role for Toronto as they fight for playoff positioning in the tough AL East.

Doubters will opine that the Jays lack players who have “been there” or “know how to win”. However, the team has seasoned vets Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, R.A. Dickey, and Edwin Encarnacion ready to provide a steadying hand.

Still afraid the Jays are over-relying on young players? I recommend this article by Dave Cameron of Fox Sports, in which he argues that prospects are just as risky as veterans.

Yes, Toronto’s youth movement could be an enormous failure. It could completely ruin their 2015 season. Nevertheless, should each rookie play at or near his potential, no doubt are the Jays a better team than the Red Sox, Rays, Orioles, and Yankees.

Typically, teams accept the fact that they must gamble their future on young prospects. However, Toronto is taking an innovative approach and instead gambling their present on six qualified rookies.

It is certainly a risky proposition, but it is also one that could pay the club large rewards come October. 2015 will be an exciting season for Blue Jays fans.

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