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Law Of The Land: Top 10 Farm Systems

By Brody Hilgenkamp

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Mar 10, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant signs autographs prior to the game against the San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Grading on the Curve spent some time breaking down the Top 50 prospects in baseball in a five part series. Now, as we head into spring training with a bevy of minor leaguers making appearances as non-roster invitees, it is time to turn our attention to the depth of major league baseball’s best farm systems. Keith Law, the minor league guru, recently ranked all 30 big league clubs and came up with the master list of farm systems across the county.

Part I of our series (systems 21 through 30) saw an abundance of playoff teams who have struggled to rebuild their farm systems with a lack of draft picks. They have some key minor league stars in the making, but the depth simply isn’t there. Part II (systems 11 through 20) of the series saw a few big surprising jumps and a few teams fall from the top spots they held for some time.

Part III take a look at the best of the best; The Top Ten Farm Systems in Major League Baseball. There should be little surprise in the top three spots as four of the top five prospects in the land are members of their farm systems. Included in this list are several teams who have, on the big league level, been non-factors over the past several seasons, but may be on the verge of something exciting as soon as this season. Heading into 2015, these are the Top 10 minor league clubs, but with so many prospects on the verge of big league stardom, they won’t be there much longer.

Oct. 14, 2014; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton plays for the Salt River Rafters during an Arizona Fall League game against the Surprise Saguaros at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

1. Chicago Cubs

Unless you have been sleeping under a rock or were forced to watch nothing but Cheers reruns at gunpoint for the past three years, you know that the Cubs are widely regarded as the team with the best farm system in baseball.

And why not? They have all the high end hitting prospects a team could ever dream of, from Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler to Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber. Bryant and Russell are both in the top five of Law’s top 50, and for good reason: Bryant bludgeoned minor league pitching to the tune of a .325/.438/.660 slash line and led the minors with 43 home runs, while Russell is an ultra-talented shortstop who Law says is one of the best pure hitters in the minors right now.

I discussed earlier that the caveat to the optimism surrounding the North-Siders is their propensity to strike out. Even Russell struck out in more than 15 percent of his plate appearances, although he has the skills to improve his contact rate. The Cubs also lack pitching depth, as C.J. Edwards is really the only high end prospect the Cubs possess, although Duane Underwood (2.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 2.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Single-A) is showing some promise as well.

2. Minnesota Twins

The Twins are piggybacking on the optimism of their farm system’s pre-2014 hype to earn Law’s second spot. Having a highly touted farm system has to be a source of frustration for Twins fans in some ways, because it produced an army of players who helped the Twins win six division titles during the 2000s. They still boast two of the most highly regarding prospects in the game–outfielder Byron Buxton (No. 2 overall) and third baseman Miguel Sano (No. 15), ”but both of them missed the majority of 2014 to injuries, and in Sano’s case all of 2014. This season will be crucial to them realizing their potential.

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The Twins also boast highly-touted pitcher Alex Meyer (No. 30), who pitched well in 2014, going 7-7 with a 3.52 ERA and striking out 153 batters in 130 1/3 innings. He does have some control problems–4.42 walk per nine innings–and he has already 25 years old, which means the Twins need him to make the jump soon, especially considering they were second to last in team ERA in 2014.

Shortstop Nick Gordon, the franchise’s First Round draft pick, is several years away but has the tools and pedigree that foretell a fruitful major league career.  The Twins also have several other pitchers who look like they could turn into the back end of the team’s rotation or form the core of its bullpen; Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Kris Johnson and Mason Melotakis, to name a few.

3. Houston Astros

The Astros have turned several really, really bad season in a row into very fruitful draft classes and now the farm system is loaded. Carlos Correa (No. 3) is a future franchise player at shortstop or third base. Mark Appel just finished a rough 2014 but rebounded during the Arizona Fall League. Domingo Santana and Vincent Velasquez are not too far away either.

Missing out on signing the 2014 Draft’s number 1 overall choice (Brady Aiken) hurts, and they did give up some good prospects in their trade with the Atlanta Braves for Evan Gattis (more on that later).

Jul 13, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; USA players Noah Syndergaard (left) and Justin O

4. New York Mets

The Mets’ strength is in their pitching depth, as the system is loading with prospects and “prospects” who have graduated into major leaguers–”think Zack Wheeler and Jacob deGrom. There are more right behind them too, which makes the Mets the owners of one of the farm systems that will produce immediately. Noah Syndergaard (No. 17, 4.60 ERA, fastball that can reach triple digits) and Steven Matz (10-9, 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) won’™t be in the minors much longer if they keep pitching the way they have been. 

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The hitters also are about to reap immediate rewards. Kevin Plawecki (.309 AVG, .365 OBP) is one of the best catching prospects in baseball, especially considering his pure hitting ability. Outfielder Brandon Nimmo made big strides in 2014 and could be ready by the middle of the summer. Outfielder Michael Conforto (No. 41) is an average to above-average defender, and it looks like he will sprint up the minors as possibly the best hitter from 2014’s draft class. He hit .331 with a BABIP of .383 as a professional in 2014. Nimmo and Conforto could form a solid outfield core for years to come at Citi Field.

5. Boston Red Sox

If the Mets’ Plawecki or the Rangers’ Jorge Alfaro are staking their claim as the best catcher in the minors, they have to contend with the Red Sox’s Blake Swihart (the No. 10 overall prospect). A switch-hitter who is developing power from both sides of the plate (only two home runs in 2013 but 13 in 2014), Swihart will form a powerful catching combo in Boston with current major leaguer Christian Vazquez. A full season at Triple-A and he will be ready.

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The Red Sox also have a young Cole Hamels in Henry Owens (No. 20). He strikes out 9.6 batters per nine innings, and it would’ve been a foregone conclusion he would contend for a spot in Boston’s rotation in 2015 if they had not completely remade it this offseason. Now he will either be a spot starter or be relegated to the bullpen unless one of the new arms struggle.

6. Atlanta Braves

The Braves’ cupboard was bare at the beginning of the offseason.

It is full now.

After six trades that brought them a slew of prospects; pitchers Max Fried in the Justin Upton deal, Mike Foltynewicz in the Evan Gattis trade and Arodys Vizcaino in the Tommy La Stella trade, to name a few; the Braves now look like a team ready to contend in the future.

Shortstop Jose Peraza (No. 24) is the antithesis of the high strikeout hitters… cough, cough, Upton brothers and Gattis…that plagued the Atlanta offense in 2014. Peraza struck out in only 9.4 percent of his trips to the plate, and his .441 OBP and 60 stolen bases scream future leadoff hitter. Unfortunately (sort of) for him is that Andrelton Simmons plays shortstop for the Braves, so Peraza will most likely move to second base.

7. Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates made the playoffs the past two seasons and still have a stacked system. They have one of the best pitching prospect in Tyler Glasnow (12-5, 1.74 ERA, 11.4 K/9 IP), who Law says could be a potential MLB strikeout champ. They also have two fantastic outfielders in Austin Meadows and Josh Bell, who both have the potential to be .300 hitters in the majors and neither one strikes out an exorbitant amount (17.6 and 11.8 percent of plate appearances, respectively).

It might have sounded crazy five years ago, but the Pirates might be good for a long time.

Jun 6, 2014; Denver, CO, USA; Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Eddie Butler (31) pitches in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

8. Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have plenty of pitching depth in the minors, especially at the top of their rankings, according to Law. This is good news considering it is so difficult to develop pitching that can succeed in Denver.

Jon Gray is starting to look like a future ace even though he experienced some shoulder soreness in 2014, going 10-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Some more seasoning at Triple-A and he could be a contributor at the end of 2015.

Eddie Butler is starting to look like a potential closer with his high-90s fastball, and lefty Kyle Freeland, a Denver-area native, had a solid professional debut after being drafted out of the University of Evansville in the First Round. He posted a 1.15 ERA and pounded the strike zone, as evidenced by his 5.50 strikeout-to-walk-ratio–”that’™s similar to Felix Hernandez and Stephen Strasburg.

Offensively, outfielder David Dahl (No. 27) and Ryan McMahon (No. 50) have the highest ceilings. Dahl slashed .299/.335/.492 in 2014 after missing all of 2013 to a hamstring injury. Law saws Dahl is a potential breakout candidate in 2015 and sees him as an above average defender in center field. McMahon is a rangy defender who struggles against lefties but should improve as he gains experience.

9. Washington Nationals

The Nationals are the Pirates on steroids.

The steroid analogy may be sensitive to baseball fans, but it i™s true. The Pirates have built a loaded farm system even though they’ve been good the past two seasons. The Nationals have been even better: ”the Nats have averaged 93 wins over the past three seasons and are loaded for 2015 ”and still have a healthy crop of young talent. Lucas Giolito (No. 8) is Law’s highest rated pitcher after a dominant 2014 (2.20 ERA, 10.1 K/9 in Single-A), Michael Taylor is a future Justin Upton-type power hitter (only a better defender), and Jakson Reetz will be the best catching prospect in the game once the Red Sox’s Swihart, the Rangers’ Alfaro and the Mets’ Plawecki make it to the majors.

Pitchers A.J. Cole and Joe Ross, who the Nationals received in the three team trade that sent Wil Myers to San Diego, also have the tools to pitch in the majors in the future.

Get used to seeing the Nationals in the playoffs.

10. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers make Law’s top 10 because their farm system is so top-heavy. Corey Seager (No. 5), the younger brother of the Mariners’™ Kyle Seager, is a future third baseman who will hit .300 with ease–”he hit .349 between High-A and Double-A in 2014.

Julio Urias has the potential to be a four-pitch starter in the majors, says Law, and his 11.2 K/9 are evidence of that hitter-befuddling arsenal. He does have control problems which Law says will be remedied with age and experience, and he looks to be in the majors in due time.

Joc Pederson rounds out the trio. He has great defensive tools and instincts and his speed allowed him to steal 30 bases in the minors in 2014.  He also has the power to be a 30 home run hitter, albeit with plenty of strikeouts.

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