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Part IV: MiLB’s Top Prospects No. 31 through 35

By Brody Hilgenkamp

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Grading on the Curve has begun their look at Keith Law’s Top 50 prospects in minor league baseball. Part I, the Top 10 future stars in minor league baseball, saw an influx of infielders, while Parts II and III were pitcher heavy. Part IV is a mix of outfield talent, more pitching and one of the more under rated catchers in the minor leagues. 

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31. Nomar Mazara, outfielder, Texas Rangers

Mazara, 19, appears on the list as the beginning of a cluster of young, high-ceiling players who have the physical tools that teams adore but are so young that they don’t have a large portfolio from which to glean a clear picture of their big league potential (you’ll meet the others at No. 32, 34 and 38).

Law pegs Mazara as an advanced-feel hitter with excellent hand-eye coordination, bat speed and strike zone awareness. The numbers back him up: Mazara draws plenty of walks (12.4 percent of plate appearances in 2014) and his strikeout rate has fallen each of the past three seasons (28.8 percent of plate appearances in 2012, 25.9 percent in 2013, and 21.7 percent in 2014). The more experience Mazara gains, the more he improves, and the fact that he’s improving so much even though he is so young points toward a promising future, which may not be too far away.

The power numbers are starting to improve as he matures as well. Mazara hit 22 home runs in 2014, and his at-bats-per-home-run made a drastic improvement this past season: in 2013, Mazara averaged 34.8 at bats between home runs; in 2014, he averaged only 22. There are several seasons of minor league seasoning before he gets to the majors, but 22 AB/HR is right on track with some very good hitters, such as the Orioles’ Adam Jones, the Dodgers’ Adrian Gonzalez and the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen.

32. Austin Meadows, outfielder, Pittsburgh Pirates

Meadows has the speed to play both corner outfield positions and the calm approach to be a consistent hitter. Meadows was hurt for the majority of 2014 with a hamstring injury, but he showed his advanced skills at the plate in spite of his abbreviated season. In 45 games, he hit .317 with a .394 on base percentage and three home runs. Meadows’ 2013 was productive as well, as he hit .316/.424 with seven home runs in 48 games between Rookie and A-ball.

Law predicts a 20-25 home run player. A full and healthy 2015 would give him a great opportunity to prove himself and justify the expectation of being a First Round draft pick.

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33. Eddie Butler, pitcher, Colorado Rockies

The Rockies would’ve loved to have a healthy Butler contribute to a staff that finished dead last in major league baseball with a 4.86 ERA.

Alas, Butler is another tragedy of the Rockies’ development of pitchers. Boasting a high 90s fastball with good sink and a plus slider, shoulder troubles and general under performance are dragging Butler into a future 8th or 9th inning flamethrower role—although that’s not necessarily a bad thing for him, considering good relievers like the Yankees’ Andrew Miller and the White Sox’s David Robertson just signed lucrative deals this offseason.

Keith Law insightfully notes that lefties are hitting .290/.342/.507 against Butler, and even though his fastball slider combo is lethal to right-handers, the inability to get hitters from both sides of the plate out with consistency isn’t conducive to starter potential.

Butler went 6-10 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.29 WHIP between three levels of the minors, plus a forgettable 6.75 ERA/1.86 WHIP cup of tea in the majors. There is still potential that he could be a starter as he did have one good outing against the Diamondbacks on Sept. 20, lasting six innings and giving up one run, but 2015 may be his last opportunity to prove he can start before he’s transitioned into a reliever’s role.

34. Tyler Kolek, pitcher, Miami Marlins

Physical tools are about the only useful gauge available when predicting Kolek’s ceiling, which many believe is high. An athletically built (6 foot 5, 260 pounds according to his MiLB player page, although Law says he’s more likely around 275) righty with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a hard slider, his gaudy tools were enough to make Kolek a First Round pick in 2014 (second overall).

Kolek walked 13 batters in 22 innings in Rookie ball, so learning to control his explosive right arm is paramount to his success in the future. All of the materials are there to build a front-line starters career, there’s just some assembly required.

35. Jorge Alfaro, catcher, Texas Rangers

Raw power abounds in Jorge Alfaro’s 6 foot 2, 185 pound body. Alfaro was an infielder as a youth, so his athleticism serves him well in his move behind the plate—think Buster Posey moving from shortstop at Florida State to catcher with the Giants. As he gets more acclimated to his new position, his rocket arm—Law gives it an 80 out of 80—will keep base stealers at bay.

Law calls Alfaro “an enticing, yet maddening, mix of monumental tools and consistent inconsistency,” which isn’t intolerable but does cause some level of concern. A solid .261/.323/.440 campaign in 2014 showed he is developing as a hitter, and he is starting to resemble Cleveland Indians catcher Yan Gomes (albeit with more defensive potential):

  • Alfaro – 2014 A+/AA: .261 AVG/.318 OBP/.440 SLG/22.9K%/ 17 HR
  • Gomes – 2011 AA: .250 AVG/.317 OBP/.464 SLG/24.3 K%/ 13 HR

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