Top Prospects solidify Cardinals Reputation
The Cardinals took a tragic hit to their young depth and organization as former prospect Oscar Taveras was killed in an accident in Dominican Republic. Despite saddened over Taveras’ loss, the Cardinals still had to replace him the lineup. They did just that by trading Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins to the Braves for right fielder Jason Heyward. The Cardinals rarely trade their young cost-controlled prospects, but did so knowing they had replacements in their armory of prospects in the minors. With left-hander Marco Gonzales and right-hander Carlos Martinez prepared to compete for Miller’s rotation spot, the Cardinals will be even younger next season.
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After Kolten Wong and Matt Adams played better as the season progressed, St. Louis will be hoping Gonzalez and Martinez will do the same. There are high expectations in St. Louis after reaching the National League Championship series for the fourth straight time this past season and the expectations for prospects are as high as anything. When Baseball America released their updated 2015 prospect rankings, one thing was made perfectly clear. The Cardinals have built a reputation for excellent scouting and this year’s top 10 prospects prove just that.
Jul 6, 2014; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Marco Gonzales (56) throws to a Miami Marlins batter during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Marlins defeated the Cardinals 8-4. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Marco Gonzales
Gonzales moved quickly through the minors with not even two full years of seasoning before he reached the majors. With Jaime Garcia ending up on the disabled list, the former first-rounder got his chance to start. His debut didn’t go well in the band-box that is Coors Field, as he gave up five runs and 7 hits while walking two and striking out three across 5 innings. His future, however, is much brighter than his unimpressive debut. At 23, Gonzales has a polished arsenal of pitches. With a fastball in the low 90s and a slider that is effective, he has a nice one, two punch to mix in with his change-up, which will give him best chance of success in the majors. Without an overpowering fastball, he’ll have to mix his pitches well to continue to get major league hitters out at a high rate. After allowing a dreadful 5.45 walks per 9 innings across 10 games (5 starts) in his first stint in the majors, he’ll look to prove early that he belongs in the Cardinals’ rotation.
Alex Reyes
The Cardinals signed Reyes as an 18 year-old after scouts saw his raw potential and explosive fastball. Reyes may have the best “pure stuff” of any of the Cardinals prospects and his 11.28 strikeouts per 9 innings coincide with that notion. With a fastball in the mid to upper 90s and an improving curveball, he could rise through the minors quickly. His curveball has a sharp break that leaves hitters’ knees buckled and is an above average pitch when he’s on his game. His future, however, will be determined by whether he can reel in his command issues. After maintaining a 13.1 walk percentage and totaling 89 walks through 168 innings, he’ll need to improve on his command. His delivery may have to change in order for him to maintain better control and balance on the mound. If he can improve that, he has number two or number three start potential. If not, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see St. Louis move him to the bullpen.
Stephen Piscotty (25) leads off of second against the Illinois Fighting Illini (Image: Jake Roth-US PRESSWIRE)
After selecting Piscotty with one of the two picks they received as compensation for Albert Pujols, the Cards have watched him produce high batting averages throughout his career. Piscotty has showed the ability to consistently make contact through every level of the minors. Despite being converted from a third-baseman to right-fielder, he was able to maintain his steadiness at the plate while developing each season as a defender. Despite never likely being a 30 home run caliber player, he’s flashed 15-20 home run potential over the past year. This boost in power could be due to his physical development as he continues to gain more strength. Whether or his power continues to improve, Piscotty’s patience at the plate and ability to foul off pitches will make him a nuisance for pitchers and give him the chance to be a leadoff hitter one day. With a strong arm in the outfield and solid athleticism he has the tools to be an above average outfielder defensively. He still needs time to develop defensively, but the drive and talent is there to do so. He had a .313 BAPIP in AAA with slash line of .288/.355/.406.With a low strikeout rate of 11 percent and solid walk rate 7.7 percent, he has solid tools across the board that could make him an ideal replacement if Heyward leaves in free agency in 2016.
Grichuk’s calling cards are his Gold-Glove level defense and raw power. After being acquired from the Angels in the deal sending David Freese to Anaheim and bringing Peter Bourjos to St. Louis, Grichuk flourished. Unlike a lot of raw power hitters in the minors, Grichuk hits to all areas of the field. With excellent bat speed, he’s able to catch up to pitches anywhere in the strike zone. The issue with Grichuk is when the ball drops out of the zone. With an inability to, at times, recognize breaking pitches, he finds himself swinging at pitches in the dirt. His excellent .234 isolated power and high strikeout percentage of 26.7 in Triple-A describes Grichuk’s combination of power and swing and miss-tendencies in a nutshell. If he can shorten his swing he should become a solid major league regular in center –field or at the very least a fourth outfielder who can provide power off the bench.
Coming out of high school, Kaminsky’s was said to have one of the best curveballs among draft-eligible pitchers and he’s lived up to that reputation. His curveball as a hard spin and he can throw it on both sides of the plate. With a high 80s to low 90s fastball and a change-up with late action, he’s slowly becoming a complete starting pitcher. The key word with Kaminsky is slowly as he’s still learning to command his fastball and change-up. He’s leaving his change-up up in the zone too often and his fastball doesn’t have the speed to overpower hitters. Until then he’s going to continue having trouble allowing base-runners. The positives for St. Louis are that over the past year, he’s improved his two-seam circle change and he does a good job of pitching inside to hitters. After posting a 1.88 ERA and allowing only a .239 batting average on balls in play in Single-A, he’s heading into 2015 on a good note. If his command progresses his curveball becomes even more effective, making him a potential mid-rotation starter. Considering the Cardinals history of developing pitchers it wouldn’t be surprising to see him reach his full potential.
After selecting Flaherty with the 34th overall pick in the 2014 Draft the Cardinals had a decision to make; does Flaherty project best at third base or on the mound. They chose starting pitcher and initial results show that they made the right decision. Despite being 19, Flaherty, has four average pitches which project well as he continues to fill in his 6-foot-3 inch frame and build muscle. With a mid-90s fastball along with a change-up, slider, and curveball, he has the complete repertoire, not to mention the ability to throw them all for strikes. His fastball has late movement and his change-up is on the way towards becoming his second best pitch. If he can mix his pitches well to set up the count in his favor, he could be a mid-rotation starter. After striking out and elite 29.9 percent of hitters he faced and walking only 4.3 percent, Flaherty is already showing the type of skills that could quickly move him up the minor league ladder.
Cooney is arguably the safest bet among the Cardinals top pitching prospects. With a clean delivery and simple mechanics he has the command and control you typically see in a more veteran pitcher. His change-up is arguably his best pitch, with nice sinking action and is extremely effective when he’s keeping his fastball down in the zone against right-handers. His fastball usually rests somewhere in the late 80s which could be disastrous if left up in the zone. Although the two-seamer has late sinking action, he’ll need to keep the pitch down and in to be successful. The fact that 79.9 percent of base-runners are left on base may indicate exactly the quality of pitcher he can be. Even when he gets into trouble, he is able to escape it. Precise command will be the biggest key to Cooney’s future and he must excel at mixing in his slider and curveball once they develop into effective pitches. If he can do that, he should be able to be an innings eater at the number four spot in the rotation with an excellent strikeout to walk ratio.
Tuivaiala is another young pitcher who made the conversion from infielder and has made major strides, especially when it comes to control. With a four and two-seam fastball, a curveball, and circle change-up, he has the arsenal to be a successful reliever once he’s able to master the intricacies that come along with it. With a fastball in the late-80s to low-90s, on paper it would seem he won’t overpower anyone at the plate. He does have late movement, however, which sometimes makes him unhittable. His second best pitch is his curveball, which has good movement, but needs to be thrown more consistently. The key with Tuivailala will be that consistency as he’ll need to continue developing as a pitcher rather than thrower. He still allows more walks and hits per inning than you’d like to see out of a thriving reliever. With an average of 14.1 strikeouts per 9 innings in his minor league career, the Cardinals have to be excited about his potential. He’ll need to limit cut down on his walks and focus on command before that potential is realized.
Tilson personifies the type of athletic and defensive-minded center-fielders that St. Louis looks for when building their organization. Although he’s still raw, he has a quick swing through the zone and a good eye at the plate. With above average speed and an advanced approach at the plate, he could eventually be a solid lead-off hitter within the next two years. Although he’ll likely never hit more than 10 home runs in a season, he still shows the type of gap power that with his speed offers extra-base potential. The key will be whether he can continue to get on base at a high clip. After his promotion to Double-A his OBP dropped from .357 in High-A to .269. If he can maximize his raw potential, he could be a replacement for a Peter Bourjos should the Cardinals eventually decide to move him.
When all is said and done Sierra may have the best career of any of the top prospects in the Cardinals organization. After leading the Gulf Coast league in batting with a .386 batting average, he was named Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year. At only 18, that’s a tremendous accomplishment and the fact that he hasn’t even fully developed physical makes his ceiling extremely high. With a compact swing and an advanced eye at the plate, he’s got the type of approach that makes him an ideal leadoff hitter. He led the organization in on-base percentage and was second in slugging percentage. Defensively, he projects as an above average centerfielder and has the range and speed to make up for early misjudgments. As Sierra progresses, he’s going to need to work on hitting breaking balls that stay in the zone. When he faces more advanced pitching, it will be interesting to see if he can prolong his 2014 success. With plenty of time to develop, the Cardinals are in no rush to promote him before he’s ready.
St. Louis has among the best reputations in baseball for developing their prospects. A large part is as a result of their patience and decisions to not rush their top prospects, no matter how high their talent level may be. With more than half the 25-man roster being former organizational prospects, there is also a trust in the scouting department to find young players to replace veterans every year. This combination of trust and patience is why the organization has had such prolonged success.