Could Allan Dykstra Be the Steal of the MiLB Offseason?

In every organization, there are players that fly under the radar despite consistently producing at a high level in the minor leagues. Once these players reach minor league free agency, they are finally given a chance to replicate their minor league success in bigs. Last year, utility man Yangervis Solarte broke camp as the Yankees starting third baseman and was eventually dealt to San Diego for former All-Star Chase Headley.

This year, Allan Dykstra could be the next no-name prospect to rise to major league relevance.

Despite never really generating much buzz in the prospect world, Dykstra was consistently one of the top hitters in the Mets organization over the last few seasons. However, the Mets never acknowledged Dykstra’s solid performances or rewarded him with big league playing time. They repeated the lefty in Double-A for three straight seasons (even though he posted an OPS above .840 his first two years in Double-A) and failed to call him up to Queens despite his .930 OPS in 439 Triple-A plate appearances last year.

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Unfortunately for the Mets, their inaction caused this underrated prospect to sign with the Tampa Bay Rays following the 2014 season. Dykstra, in the prime of his career at 27-years-old, has a real chance to open the 2015 season as the backup to James Loney at Tropicana Field.

The Rays may have gotten the steal of the minor league offseason, as their brand-new first baseman was excellent at the minor league’s highest level in 2014. Dykstra’s 2014 performance earned him a spot on MiLB.com’s Mets Organizational All-Stars list. He slashed a  280/.426/.504 line with Triple-A Las Vegas, and it was the fourth straight season that he posted above a 140 a wRC+. That means that he’s created 40% more runs than the league average ballplayer over last four years. Those are the kinds of players you just can’t let hit the open market.

In fact, you would be hard-pressed to find a season in which Dyskstra struggled in the Mets organization. After being traded to New York, the first baseman never batted below .261, posted an OPS less than .830, or drove in fewer than 74 RBI over a full season.

Furthermore, the former Padre never reached base at lower than a .389 clip in his pro career, demonstrating that his power and contact tools stack up against the minor league’s best competition.

Dykstra’s vulnerability to the strikeout is one of the few areas where he can legitimately be criticized; the lowest strikeout percentage he’s posted in his pro career is an appalling 22.1%. However, the lowest walk percentage Dykstra has posted during his time with the Mets was a solid 14.5%, and he’s reached at least a 19.1 BB% in three of the last four years. A potential weakness in plate discipline actually seems to be a strength of the talented first baseman.

Considering the philosophy the Mets try to impose on their young hitters, it’s surprising Dykstra wasn’t given a chance at the big league level.  He profiles as the typical moneyball player; he has solid power, an excellent batting eye, and would be playing at the major league minimum for the next few seasons. 

The Rays, like the Mets, preach a patient philosophy in which Dykstra can thrive. However, unlike the Mets, Tampa Bay is not expecting a 30 home run season, which Mets received from 2014 starter Lucas Duda, from their first baseman James Loney. Yes, Tampa Bay fine starting Loney, who is in the second year of a $21M deal, but take away Loney’s first two major league seasons, and the 30-year-old has never reached the .800 OPS threshold or eclipsed the 15 home run plateau. He is not an unbeatable competitor.

Loney is a proven major league talent and Dykstra is a relatively unknown quantity, but Dykstra’s minor league numbers are actually noticeably better than Loney’s, and it’s not even that close. His career OPS stands 60 points higher than current Rays starter did in his MiLB career (.858 to .794) and the former Met has slugged, on average, almost eight more home runs per season.

If Dykstra can smoothly adjust to big league pitching, the 27-year-old could emerge as the Rays’ best option at first base this season.

Dykstra will finally get a chance to make a big league roster during 2015 Spring Training. And if his future is anything like his past, the underrated slugger from California will maximize his opportunity and find a home in Tampa Bay. 

Watch out. By midseason 2015, we could be talking about Allan Dykstra as the steal of the minor league offseason.