Marrero draws interest. What do Red Sox do?
Marrero was in the conversation for the number one overall pick in the 2012 Draft, but he dropped to the 24th pick after his production declined during his junior year. He’s lived up to that number one pick potential up until his promotion to Triple-A. His defensive instincts are among the best in the Minors at shortstop and he has the type of range that could allow him to immediately contribute in the Majors. With that range, an above average arm and soft hands, he projects as a potential gold glove candidate if he can grow offensively. Before being promoted to Triple-A, Marrero controlled the strike zone and was patient at the plate until he got a pitch in the strike zone and consistently made contact.
After a career in the minors with a walk percentage above 11 percent his walk percentage dropped to 5.9 percent in AAA. Considering his decrease in walk percentage, strikeout percentage, and drop in batting average on balls in play (BABIP) from .349 to .255, along with his lack of power, it offers the inference that he’s not driving the ball as he had done in his previous minor league stops.
The question for the Red Sox is with so much potential, do they keep Marrero or trade him for a piece who could fill another hole on their roster. As of now, former top prospect Xander Bogaerts is penciled in for shortstop next year. Despite having a rough season where he batted .290 with a .297 OBP, 659 OPS, and .2 WAR, he’ll certainly have a spot on the left side of the infield in Boston. Whether that spot is at shortstop or third base remains to be seen. Will Middlebrooks, who was once looked upon as a future cornerstone of the Boston lineup at third base has had two below par offensive seasons, batting .227 in 2013 and .191 in 2014 with WARs of -.1 and -1.4, respectively.
If Middlebrooks is traded, it could mean that Bogaerts is shifted to third base, opening a spot at shortstop for Marrero. It could also mean, however, that former prospect Garin Cecchini has earned the starting spot at third after batting .258 with a .361 OBP, .813 OPS, and .3 WAR in 11 games last year. With Bogaerts’ talent at shortstop undeniable and two third basemen on the roster, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Red Sox kept Marrero in AAA and let the 2015 season dictate their potential decisions for 2016.
Yet the smooth fielding shortstop could make that difficult and teams could come calling if scouts believe his he has enough strength and gap power in his swing. Despite never likely being a double digit home run player, if he can gain more strength to accompany his patience and ability to make contact, he offers the Red Sox tremendous value as a trade piece.
Beyond Clay Buchholz and Joe Kelly, the Boston rotation is unsettled for next year. As of now 3 pitchers with a year or less of experience will be in that rotation. That could have the Red Sox looking for veteran starting pitching to compete next year. With the Mets looking for their shortstop of the future and a plethora of pitching the Red Sox could attempt to make a potential move for left-hander Jon Niese. Niese would give the Red Sox a lefty in a rotation full of right-handers and a pitcher who’s still in his prime at 28. If New York isn’t interested, Cincinnati and Oakland could be. With both teams having excess starting pitching, they could be willing to make a deal. If the Reds off Homer Bailey or Mike Leake or the Athletics offer Drew Pomeranz or Jesse Chavez as part of a package, it could at least be the beginning of negotiations.
The good thing for the Red Sox is that they have the talent to make moves and things like this usually work their way out. Having more talent than they know what to do with is a luxury few teams have and Boston should be able to capitalize on that, no matter the decision they make with Marrero.