Chicago Cubs Readying Themselves for Javier Baez

Jul 13, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; World infielder

hits a two-run home run in the 6th inning during the All Star Futures Game at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

In what could be a presage of a much larger move, the Cubs designated second baseman Darwin Barney for assignment two nights ago. The transaction itself is not noteworthy; Barney has been terrible over the last season and a half, with a .266 on base percentage and a .576 OPS, and the move was technically just to make room for Emilio Bonifacio coming off the disabled list. But there’s a chance that this sets up an opportunity for a much more high profile player to join the roster: top prospect and minor league masher Javier Baez.

The removal of Barney creates something of a void at second base for Chicago. They’ve given rookie Arismendy Alcantara the bulk of at bats there over the past couple of weeks, but the team seems to pushing him towards center field, where he has started in both games since Bonifacio’s return.

That leaves Bonifacio to man second – a rather imperfect solution. The 29 year old veteram  isn’t really an effective regular, having amassed a single season WAR above 1.2 only once in his career – back in 2011; Much, if not most, of his of his value comes from his versatility (he can play every infield position and the outfield). The Cubs are under fire from their fans for fielding perennially poor big league club and running out a second baseman with no power and a .652 OPS is not going to help.

But Chicago seems to have a plan.

Last week, in the wake of acquiring top shortstop prospect Addison Russell from the A’s, the Cubs moved their own premier middle infield prospect Javier Baez over to second base. And he has been on a tear.

The seventh best prospect in baseball is hitting .309/.360/.632 with five home runs and more extra base hits (12), than singles (9) since July 2^nd, and that’s not including the two run shot he hit for World in the 2014 MLB Futures Game. He doesn’t seem to be slowing down, either; Baez went 3 for 5 with a double and two RBIs last night as the Iowa Cubs romped New Orleans 13-4.

The recent hot streak lifted his overall line to .253/.316/.472. That may not seem impressive for a player of his hitting potential, but considering that on May 15^th, he was hitting .142 with a .484 OPS and just three home runs, it shows real improvement. 

These aren’t shallow, or lucky gains either; Baez has shown an overall better approach at the plate, cutting down on his strikeouts as the season has worn on. He was striking out in 38% of his at bat through his first 28 games, but he has lowered that rate to just 26.7% rate in 64 games since. It’s still not spectacular, and he will need to learn to make more consistent contact, he seems to be improving by tuesday. He has a K rate of 18.7% during this streak. (Splits courtesy of Fangraphs.com).

If Baez continues to rake, he may force the Cubs hand. It was an extended display of hitting that got Alcantara promoted two weeks ago. In the 20 games preceding his call up, the 23 year old hit .397 with 13 extra base hits, six stolen bases, and a 1.089 OPS.

Alcantara, though, had one advantage over Javier Baez: a 40 man roster spot. Alcantara was already a member of the Cubs’ 40 man roster, meaning calling him up was as simple as making a phone call. Baez, however, is not so fortunate, and adding him to the would give Chicago less flexibility in acquiring players come offseason.

“Because of the 40-man issues, you have to factor in what a player might get out of a call-up versus what it means for the organization as a whole not being able to add a player in the winter because of 40-man issues,” Cubs President Theo Epstein recently told ESPN Chicago’s Shadaev Sharma in reference to Baez, “Kyle Hendricks had to be added to the 40-man this winter, so it made it a lot easier to for us to call him up now. [Arismendy] Alcantara already on the 40-man made it a lot easier to take the step of promoting a player.”

Whether or not the Cubs decide to give Baez major league at bats this season – and I ultimately think they will – they’ve clearly signaled that he is the club’s second baseman of the future. Otherwise, they would be playing Alcantara there in the majors, and not a passing journeyman like Emilio Bonifacio.