Baseball Prospectus vs. MLB.com: Top Prospect Lists

Mar 6, 2013; St. Louis, MO, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Oscar Taveras (87) hits a 2 run home run against the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports

The past five days or so have seen the release of Top 100 (or 101) prospect lists by both Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com. There are some fascinating differences between these lists despite sharing the same top three players. From what I gathered from the MLB Network’s show that released the list, it was put together by a number of writers that included Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis. For BP, it’s all a one-man show with Jason Parks handling the heavy lifting.

The top three prospects (Byron Buxton, Xander Bogaerts, Oscar Taveras) are identical on both lists and the Top 10 of both lists have mostly the same players but in different orders. Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker and Francisco Lindor make the top ten on both lists with Miguel Sano coming in fourth and Kris Bryant at #9 on MLB.com’s list and Addison Russell making the top 10 for BP (at #7) with Kevin Gausman sneaking in at #10. Of these players, really only Gausman is a surprise as he’s #31 at MLB.com while Addison Russell just missed MLB.com’s top 10, ranking #12. Parks ranks Sano at #14 and Kris Bryant at #17.

Both lists have New York Mets’ righty Noah Syndergaard at #11 but things tend to diverge fairly quickly from there. Travis d’Arnaud has one of the biggest drop-offs between the lists, ranking at 22 for MLB.com but #48 for BP. While the guys at MLB.com love d’Arnaud’s overall package and lack of any real weaknesses, Parks has cooled and feels that the off-the-charts defense of Austin Hedges makes him the best catching prospect in baseball.

Jason Parks is also really high on 17-year-old righty Julio Urias who is in the Dodgers’ system. Parks has the phenom at 35 but it looks like the MLB.com writers are a little more cautious about his placement, putting him at #64. I actually sat behind Urias at a game last season (he was scheduled to pitch the next day), so I’m pulling for the kid.

Seeing his ability to make a contribution to a major league team in 2014, the MLB.com team have 3B Nick Castellanos ranked #15 while Parks at Baseball Prospectus has him at #37. The Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman gets more love at BP than at MLB.com. Parks is convinced that Stroman’s upside is better than that of Aaron Sanchez and that The Stro Show will stick as a starter putting him 27th on the list. MLB.com is being more cautious, ranking him at #55.

The back half of the lists are very subjective and I won’t go into too much detail particularly because I’m sure to omit your favorite team and player! Follow the links at the top of the article and let us know what you think! Who should be on there but wasn’t? Who surprised you?