Prospects on the Verge: Manny Banuelos
By Jason Mast
Jul 14, 2013; Flushing , NY, USA; USA players look out from the dugout during the 2013 All Star Futures Game at Citi Field. USA defeated World 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Boogie, an old Oakland scout reflects on a young Billy Beane in Michael Lewis‘sMoneyball, “Billy was a guy you could dream on,” he said wistfully. There in lies the tantalizing nature of prospects: you can imagine them to be anything. In a 19 year old throwing gas on some slipshod Single-A mound, you can see an ace racking up strikeouts in Fenway Park and a skinny dominican cracking balls deep into the gaps of rookie league stadiums is clearly just a few years away from turning the spacious Petco Park into a bandbox.
But eventually time rears its ceaseless hands and dreams must either be realized or melt into a grim or mundane reality. Prospects have to eventually perform at the show; so we here at Grading On The Curve are running down the list of prospects who could make a major impact this year. One from each team, next up is the New York Yankees and starting pitcher Manny Banuelos.
March 9, 2012; Tampa, FL, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Manuel Banuelos (85) throws a pitch in the fifth inning against the Atlanta Braves at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
It’s been long road for Yankees prospect Manny Banuelos. From obscurity in the Mexican League to the Yankees Gulf Coast Affiliate to the New York spotlight as one of their finest prospects, consecutively ranked in the better half of Baseball’s America’s top 100 list, before quietly slipping back into obscurity in the wake of a string of elbow injuries culminating in Tommy John surgery.
But now Banuelos is back. After missing almost the entirety of two seasons, the young lefthander who Mariano Rivera once called the best pitching prospect he had ever seen is healthy and should be poised to make his mark on Yankee Stadium this season.
Granted, he won’t start 2014 in New York, GM Brian Cashman has said as much. Instead, Banuelos will report to Triple-A Scranton, where he’ll try and regain a feel for pitching after his extended hiatus.
Considering he reached the minors’ highest level in 2011 as a 20 year old, it stands to reason that at 23, he shouldn’t need too much seasoning before he’s ready to make the jump to the show. That being said, Banuelos made Triple-A on account of his raw ability, not his command or pitchability. As such, he wasn’t particularly good at Scranton, pitching to a 4.19 ERA over seven starts in 2011 and a 4.50 ERA over six starts in 2012.
His control has always been the issue. He has a career BB/9 of 4.9 at Double-A, and his BB/9 in Triple-A in 2011 was 5.0, a slightly better 3.8 in 2012. He had much better command in the lower levels of the minors and its unclear how his control will play out upon his return. Cashman has conceded this, telling the New York Post that he has “no idea” how good (or bad) Banuelos will be this spring.
Yet there are reasons to believe that an older and more experienced Banuelos can thrive and start for the Yankees next season. Prior to the surgery, his stuff was unilaterally praised. His changeup garnered comparisons to that of Johan Santana, his fastball ran from 90 to 94 MPH, and his curveball had the potential to be above average. He was ranked by ESPN’s Keith law as the 23rd overall prospect in baseball after the 2011 season, the 13th by MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo.
Although Cashman and the rest of New York’s brass may have little foresight as to how he will perform once he faces actual hitters, reports from rehab have been promising. This past October, Yankees Vice President Mark Newman informed Chad Jennings that Banuelos was throwing 92-94 with his fastball and that his offspeed pitches were developing nicely. Tommy John surgery is simply not a death sentence anymore, or even much of a long term obstacle. According to the Bleacher Report’s Will Carrol, one third of all active major league pitchers have undergone the operation and that five years after surgery, few elbow issues arose. Adam Wainrwright, Stephen Strasburg, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and C.J. Wilson have all recovered from Tommy John with stunning results.
Vidal Nuno, Adam Warren, and David Phelps can all offer depth and a decent spot starter for the Yankees, but none of them have the upside that Banuelos does. If Manny goes down to the minors, proves himself healthy, and dominates, he’ll be pitching in the Bronx before long, that rotation has too much age and uncertainty to avoid it. On the off chance that the Yankee rotation stays healthy and strong all season, Banuelos’s arsenal could make for a devastating weapon out of the pen.