Seattle Mariners 2014 Top 15 Prospects

March 7, 2013; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners relief pitcher

(65) throws in the fifth inning during a spring training game against the Oakland Athletics at Phoenix Municipal Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners farm system isn’t one of the best in the league and once Taijuan Walker becomes a major league mainstay next April, they won’t have a single top 100 prospect. Prior to the season, Walker was just one of three elite pitchers in Seattle’s prospect ranks, but Danny Hultzen‘s injury and James Paxton‘s struggles were huge hits to the organization. Also eating at the farm system has been the recent graduations of top hitting prospects Mike Zunino, Kyle Seager, and Nick Franklin. But there is still some talent in this system, as highlighted by these fifteen players:

Special thanks to Dan Hughes of the Mariners blog site Sodo Mojo for his invaluable assistance in the completion of this list.

The Mariners Minor League Teams are as follows:

Triple-A: Tacoma Rainers (PCL)
Double-A: Jackson Generals (SOU)
High-A: High Desert Mavericks (CAL)
Class-A: Clinton LumberKings (MID)
Short-Season A: Everett AquaSox (NOR)
Advanced Rookie: Pulsaki Mariners (APP)
Complex-Rookie: AZL Mariners (AZL), DSL Mariners (DSL), VSL Mariners (VSL)

#15

Xavier Avery – OF
Date of Birth: January 1, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’0′, 190 lbs
Acquired: Trade, Baltimore Orioles

2013 Stats

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Since the day he was drafted by the Orioles in 2008, Avery has been the player with all the tools, but who lacked the ability to channel them onto the diamond. In six minor league seasons, not once has he posted an OPS above .725. Still, as a potential leadoff hitter, his .345 OBP last season was a positive sign, and most of his value will come in the field or on the basepaths anyway. A plus runner, Avery has excellent range in center and has stolen over 30 bases four times in the minors. He’s a backup outfielder at least, but he could be more if the bat ever comes along.  

2014 Prognosis: Avery will probably start next season in Triple-A Tacoma, but he’ll be one of the first players on call if a Mariners outfielder goes down with injury.

#14

Patrick Kivlehan – 3B
Date of Birth: December 22, 1989
Height/Weight: 6’2′, 210  lbs
Acquired: 4th round, 2012 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: After a somewhat disappointing start to the year in Class-A, Kivlehan was promoted to High-A and proceeded to ravage the high-dessert league, hitting .320 with a .384 OBP, and 13 home runs in just 68 games. He’s this low on this list, however, because at 23, he was slightly old for A ball and the High-Dessert ballpark, where Kivlehan played the second half of his season, is the best hitters park in all of full-season minor league baseball, according to a report published by Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Kivlehan has the potential to be an everyday major league third baseman, but having not played any baseball between his senior year of high school and his senior of college, he will probably need more time and seasoning in the minors than most other 24 year olds. 

2014 Prognosis: Kivlehan proved himself in High-Desert and should play all of next season in Double-A Jackson

#13

Edwin Diaz – RHP
Date of Birth: March 22, 1994
Height/Weight: 6’2′, 165  lbs
Acquired: 3rd round, 2012 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: The slender righthander was incredibly raw when Seattle drafted him in 2012, but he is coming along nicely, as indicated by his 1.43 ERA and 4.39 K:BB ratio in rookie ball last year. His 2.3 BB/9 is particularly noteworthy, as Diaz had been rather wild after the draft two seasons ago, walking just under a batter per inning over the course of nineteen innings.His potential is largely an outgrowth of a solid repertoire that includes a mid-90’s fastball, and a developing change up and curve. 

2014 Prognosis: After a successful rookie league season, Diaz will get his shot with full season Class-A Clinton.

#12

Carson Smith – RHP
Date of Birth: October 19, 1989
Height/Weight: 6’6′, 215  lbs
Acquired: 8th round, 2011 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Few relievers ever make top prospect list, but Smith’s potential as a closer or elite set up man merits him a spot. His minor league numbers speak for themselves, particularly the 12.8 SO/9, and are the result of power-reliever type stuff. Smith primarily works off of a mid-90’s sinker, adding in a hard slider and even the occasional change. His strange side-arm delivery adds deception to his swing-and-miss stuff, but, as MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo notes, it can also make him more erratic.

2014 Prognosis: He should start next season in Triple-A, but could be called up to the big league bullpen any time.

#11

Tyler Marlette – C
Date of Birth: January 23, 1993
Height/Weight: 5’11’, 195  lbs
Acquired: 5th round, 2011 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Marlette was paid well over-slot by Seattle in 2011 and has done nothing but hit since. His .304 average and .367 OBP last year were impressive, but he has always been known for his power, even if it has yet to really show up in games. He still has some work to do defensively behind the plate, but he has the arm to play the position well and he should profile as an able catcher long term

2014 Prognosis: Whether or not the Mariners push Marlette to High-A High Desert to start next season, he should be there before long. Once he’s promoted, the hitting environment that the desert air produces should lead to a great season for the young catcher.

July 8, 2012; Kansas City, MO, USA; USA pitcher

throws a pitch during the third inning of the 2012 All Star Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: H. Darr Beiser-USA TODAY Sports via USA TODAY Sports

#10

Luiz Gohara – LHP
Date of Birth: July 31, 1996
Height/Weight: 6’3′, 210  lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Gohara is only 17 and therefore years away from the majors with plenty of time to wash out, but he’s on the list because of his incredible potential. At just 17, he was reaching the mid-90’s with his fastball, according to Baseball America, and he should only add velocity as he ages and fills out. He also adds in a potentially plus slider and developing change up, all of which led some scouts to consider him the best pitcher from 2012’s international signing class, according to scouting analyst Ben Badler. You shouldn’t put too much stock into rookie ball numbers, but his 11.2 SO/9 is encouraging nonetheless.

2014: With rare exceptions, 17 year olds belong in rookie ball. 

#9

Gabriel Guerrero – OF
Date of Birth: December 11, 1993
Height/Weight: 6’3′, 190  lbs
Acquired: International Free Agent

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: The nephew of nine time all star Vladimir Guerrero, Gabriel certainly has the baseball pedigree to succeed. He broke out in the Dominican and Arizona rookie leagues last year, hitting .349 with 15 home runs and a .986 OPS, but he came back to earth in his first taste of full season ball in 2013. His biggest problem was his his approach at the plate, as he walked just 4% of the time, less than half the big league average, while striking out almost once every four at bats. Still, he only just turned 20 and still has plenty of time to tap into his latent Guerrero family gifts – plus raw power and a cannon in right field.

2014 Prognosis: Guerrero struggled mightily in his first tour of Class-A last year, so he’ll try again in 2014. 

#8

Austin Wilson – OF
Date of Birth: February 7, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’4′, 210  lbs
Acquired: 2nd round, 2013 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Wilson was only a second round draft pick last year, but he commanded a 1.7 million dollar signing bonus, more than several first rounders. He commanded such a lucrative contract because he projects to hit for plus power, although he didn’t show much of it in his brief professional stint in 2013. In the outfield, Wilson should be an above average right fielder, according to Baseball America, largely thanks to powerful right arm. 

2014 Prognosis: A college draft pick, I’d expect the Mariners to start him at High-A next season, although considering his mediocre stats in short season low-A last year, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he reports to Class-A Clinton.

#7

Stefen Romero – OF
Date of Birth: October 17, 1988
Height/Weight: 6’2′, 220  lbs
Acquired: 12th round, 2010 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Expectations were high for Romero after he destroyed High-A and Double-A in his first full professional season in 2012, leading the entire Mariners organization with a .352 batting average while also adding in 23 home runs. Playing in Triple-A this past year, he came back to earth, hitting .277 with just 11 home runs. Seattle should be somewhat concerned with his plate discipline as he walked less than 7% of the time each of the past two seasons (MLB average is 9%), but they should be more concerned with his defense. Romero is a man without a position, having played primarily in the outfield last season, but also at second, third, first and DH.

2014 Prognosis: Romero will report to Triple-A Tacoma, although he could see major league time if he returns to anything near his 2012 form.

#6

Tyler Pike – LHP
Date of Birth: January 26, 1994
Height/Weight: 6’0′, 180  lbs
Acquired: 3rd round, 2012 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: The Mariners paid Pike twice the recommended slot value to pull him out of a strong commitment to Florida State, and the teenage lefthander has not disappointed since. After dominating rookie ball after the 2012 draft, Seattle bumped him up to Class-A, where he posted a stellar 2.37 ERA, which would have lead the Midwestern league had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Pike’s repertoire is fairly advanced for a 19 year old, as he throws a low 90’s fastball, an above-average curve, and a potentially average changeup.

2014 Prognosis: Having succeeded in Class-A Clinton, he’ll be promoted to High-A High Desert for 2014. Don’t panic, though, when his numbers take a hit in the overly hitter-friendly environment.

Sep 4, 2013; Kansas City, MO, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher

(27) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

#5

Chris Taylor – SS/2B
Date of Birth: August 29, 1990
Height/Weight: 6’0′, 170  lbs
Acquired: 5th round, 2012 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Taylor was a pleasant surprise for Seattle last year, as he continued his torrid pace from his first professional half-season last year and showed some ability to stay at shortstop. His .314/.409/.455 slash line was partly a result of playing half the year in High Desert, but he still had a .774 OPS after leaving for Double-A Jackson and still got on base at a premium rate (.391 OBP and 13% walk rate). If he can continue to hit .290-.300 with a .370+ OBP, he’ll have a future as a starting middle infielder, but it probably won’t be with the Mariners. Brad Miller solidified himself at shortstop last year and Robinson Cano is obviously entrenched at second for the next decade. 

2014 Prognosis: Taylor should start at Triple-A next season, but considering Seattle’s middle infield depth, he could be used as trade bait before next season’s trade deadline.

#4

Danny Hultzen – LHP
Date of Birth: November 28, 1989
Height/Weight: 6’3′, 200  lbs
Acquired: 1st round (2nd overall), 2011 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Coming into the season, Hultzen was one of three elite pitching prospects – along with James Paxton and Taijuan Walker – in the Mariner’s ranks, and it was easy to see why. The former second overall pick has a 93 MPH sinker, an excellent changeup, and a potentially above average curve and He struck out over a batter per inning in his first professional season, although his control issues were obvious. Hultzen was ranked as the 29^th best prospect in baseball heading into 2013 and started off well, but struggled with shoulder issues throughout the season before being forced to undergo surgery in October. He will miss all of 2014, and its unclear if he will ever return to his pre-surgery form. 

2014 Prognosis: Hultzen will spend all of next season rehabbing from shoulder surgery.

#3

James Paxton – LHP
Date of Birth: November 6, 1988
Height/Weight: 6’4′, 220  lbs
Acquired: 4th round, 2010 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: Paxton may have excited some fans with his 1.50 ERA, .172 BAA, and 0.917 WHIP across four major league starts to finish out last season, but his Triple-A numbers tell a different story. The 24 year old left hander got lit up to a mediocre 4.45 ERA, 1.483 WHIP, and .277 BAA over twenty six starts and two relief appearances. Ultimately the real James Paxton is probably somewhere in between as his Triple-A numbers were partly the result of an inordinately high .338 BABIP, his major league stats the consequence of an inordinately low .203 BABIP. 

2014 Prognosis: Paxton will compete to join the big league rotation next spring, and he appears to be the favorite for the fifth starter spot.

#2

D.J. Peterson– 3B
Date of Birth: December 31, 1991
Height/Weight: 6’1′, 190  lbs
Acquired: 1st round (12th overall), 2013 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: One thing is certain about Peterson; he will hit. The 12^th overall pick from June’s draft can generate plus power with his quick swing, as evidenced by his 13 home runs in just half a season’s work last season. Scouts praise his mature approach at the plate, but his defense is suspect. He played third in college and the Mariners may try him there next season, but in all likelihood, he’ll move across the diamond and be playing first in Seattle by the end of 2015.

2014 Prognosis:  After tearing up Class-A in his professional debut, Peterson should report to High-A to start next season and could reach Double-A by the summer.

#1

Taijuan Walker –  RHP
Date of Birth: August 13, 1992
Height/Weight: 6’4′, 210  lbs
Acquired: 1st round (43rd overall), 2010 draft

2013 Stats:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/25/2013.

Analysis: The fourth best prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com, Walker has been declared all but untouchable by the Mariners this offseason. No 20 year old has more poise and pitchability than Walker, who complements his mound presence with a plus, mid-90’s fastball, and a quality change up and curve. He earned a September call up after shutting down Triple-A last season and he’ll join the Seattle rotation full time next year. Going forward, Walker will have to shore up his command if he is to realize his ace potential, but he misses enough bats (10.2 SO/9 in AAA) to compensate for now.

2014 Prognosis: Walker has already been handed a rotation spot for 2014, and is arguably the frontrunner for the American League Rookie of the Year award.