Potential Scherzer and Price Trades

Ah the offseason, a time for fantasing and rampant trade speculation. We here at Grading on the Curve are not immune – no one in the blogosphere is – but we’ll at least try to keep it fresh by focusing on the prospects instead of the veterans. With David Price and Max Scherzer drawing the most early buzz around baseball, here’s a pair of what we think are reasonable and possible veteran-for-prospects trades.

Oct 5, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher David Price (14) pitches during the first inning in game two of the American League divisional series playoff baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

David Price to the Cubs, Javier Baez, Mike Olt and Pierce Johnson to the Rays

Rays GM Andrew Friedman managed to net #4 overall prospect Wil Myers in last offseason’s James Shields, and he’ll be on the prowl for another elite prospect in any David Price swap. Shortstop Javier Baez fills this mold as he ranks as the 9^th overall prospect in baseball (according to MLB.com) and catapulted his plus bat speed and subsequent plus power into 37 home runs this past season, good for second in all of minor league baseball. Shortstop is one of the few positions at which the Rays do not have an elite player, and he could make an impact there rather quickly. Filling in at one of Tampa’s few other holes – first base – would be Mike Olt, who’s 2013 season was ruined when he experienced blurred vision and could never get his stats back on track, even after his eye problems were fixed. Like any player who hits .201 over a nearly full professional season, he’s somewhat of a question mark, but he has the potential to be the Rays slugging first baseman of the future. Friedman is always on the lookout for pitching, and Johnson, one of the top college arms from the 2012 draft, has a high floor, and a probable future as a dependable third starter.

For the Cubs, this would satisfy Theo Epstein’s quest for an elite starter – he missed out on Anibal Sanchez last offseason – and accelerate the rebuilding process. Equally important, it would keep Chicago’s elite outfield trio of Albert Almora, Kris Bryant, and Jorge Soler intact and part of Epstein’s long term plan (an important part, too, as only one of the Cubs current outfielders who could even conceivably start on a contender).

Oct 19, 2013; Boston, MA, USA; Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Max Scherzer (37) pitches during the first inning in game six of the American League Championship Series baseball game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Max Scherzer to the Rangers for Jurrickson Profar, Rougned Odor, and Luke Jackson

Coming off a 21 win season and still arbitration eligible, the Tigers clearly believe that Scherzer’s value is peaking, and are looking to maximize it by putting their number two starter on the trading block. For a contender like the Tigers, the prospect return is all about immediate impact and filling holes on the major league roster. With Johnny Peralta leaving for free agency and Jose Iglesias having sported a .654 OPS in 46 games since coming over from Boston, they’ll need a new shortstop and they can’t do better long term than Profar. Profar’s .233 average and .644 OPS may not have met the expectations fans set for the former number one overall prospect in baseball, but they were more than adequate for a 20 year old shortstop playing in his first full major league season. He still has the same five tool potential he had as a teenager in the minors, and would look rather affordable next to the behemoth contracts of Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera that also line the infield and Comerica Park. The Tigers also lack a second baseman, and while Odor, 19, can’t fill in immediately, he certainly has a bright future that could start as soon as 2015. He tore up the Carolina League (A+) and the Texas League (AA) as a teenager in AA, and he could hit for both power and average in the big leagues. Luke Jackson was one of the breakout prospects of the 2013 season. After being taken in the first round out of a high school and subsequently struggling for a year and half, Jackson finally found his groove this past season, cruising to a 2.04 ERA between A+ and AA. The control is still an issue (4.1 BB/9), but if he can reign it in, he could be a middle of the rotation starter going forward.

For the Rangers, this would solve their logjam in the infield, finally establishing Elvis Andrus as the shortstop of the future and ending all future trade speculation. More relevant, though, is that this could be the big acquisition that puts Texas over the top and prevents them from becoming the baseball equivalent of the 1990’s Buffalo Bills.