2013 Top 115 Prospect Recap; 111-115
By Max Gelman
Jul 14, 2013; Flushing , NJ, USA; Players from the World Team (left to right) Baltimore Orioles prospect Eduardo Rodriguez and Minnesota Twins prospect Miguel Sano and Tampa Bay Rays prospect Enny Romero and Chicago White Sox prospect Andre Rienzo and Cincinnati Reds prospect Carlos Contreras are photographed by Kansas City Royals prospect Yordano Ventura (46) before the All Star Futures game at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The Minor League playoffs are just about coming to a close, and a wild minor league season that saw a near 40/40 season, graduated a Cuban phenom, and watched as multiple top prospects shuffled allegiances is already in the rearview mirror. Before the season, we took a stab at naming the top 115 prospects in baseball, attempting to predict which players had the greatest shot at major league success. Now, almost a year later, we look back at our pre-season list, recapping each player’s performance, discovering which prospects we were too high on, which we were too low, and capturing the occasional moment when our scouting and analysis was dead on. We’ll have daily 10 player installments all week, but we start with 111-115.
#115 – Barret Loux, right-handed pitcher, Chicago Cubs
Feb 18, 2013; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Barret Loux poses for a picture during photo day at Fitch Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Height/Weight: 6’5”, 230
Born: April 6, 1989 (age 24)
2013 Stats (at Triple A Iowa): 4-6, 4.84 ERA, 19 GP (16 GS), 80.0 IP, 8.55 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.638 WHIP
Heading into 2013… Loux, coming off a dominant season at Double-A, was traded to the Cubs in November 2012. Once considered a top pitching prospect, (he was drafted 6th overall by the Diamondbacks in 2010, but never completed a deal due to concerns about his shoulder) Loux has resurrected his career and is starting to make a name for himself. Being traded to the Cubs is a good thing for him, as Theo Epstein values high upside pitchers. If he pitches well at Triple-A, he would warrant a September call-up.
Now that the 2013 season is (almost) over…Loux has been on the DL since August 6th with a strained right shoulder. Prior to his injury, he hasn’t pitched as well as last season with his ERA up more than a run from last season (3.47 to 4.84). Furthermore, his walk rate (BB/9) has skyrocketed, rising from 2.91 to 5.18. The Cubs had hoped Loux would have better acclimated to the tougher competition of Triple-A, but that hasn’t been the case this year. On a lighter note, his strikeout rate (K/9) has gone up (7.09 to 8.55) his home run rate (HR/9) has dropped (0.71 to 0.45), and his fielding-independent pitching (FIP), usually a better indicator of success than ERA,, is almost a full run lower than his ERA, at 3.75 compared to 4.84.
Looking ahead…With his shoulder injury, Loux can pretty much forget about a September call-up this year. Loux will get a shot next season to make the team out of Spring Training, likely as a back-end starter or reliever.
#114 – Cory Spangenberg, second baseman, San Diego Padres
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 195
Born: March 16, 1991 (age 22)
2013 Stats (at Single A+ Lake Elsinore): .296/.364/.460 in 253 PA, 4 HR, 31 RBI, 17 SB, 23 BB, 51 K
2013 Stats (at Double A San Antonio): .289/.331/.366 in 319 PA, 2 HR, 20 RBI, 19 SB, 17 BB, 61 K
Heading into 2013…Spangenberg has quick feet, good instincts on the basepaths and an average glove, but won’t ever hit for much power. If he can get on base he will likely end up as a useful role player in the majors, possibly even a regular top-of-the-lineup table setter. However, he must develop his power – not necessarily being able to hit homeruns, but more extra base hits. While his batting average is decent, it’s mostly the result of singles (83 out of 104 total hits.)
Now that the 2013 season is (almost) over…Spangenberg shined this season at Single A+ and earned a promotion to Double A in early June. Before his promotion, Spangenberg was doing everything right to be deemed worthy of the first round pick the Padres spent on him in 2011 (10th overall). His OPS rose from .675 the previous season to .824, an astonishing increase. His walk rate increased from 6.1% to 9.1% and while his strikeout rate also swelled, from 16.9% to 20.2%, these numbers are indicative of Spangenberg’s improved patience at the plate (he is taking more pitches, leading to deeper counts and more walks and strikeouts, a good thing for a guy with an table setter profile). However, after being promoted to San Antonio, Spangenberg’s numbers reverted to similar 2012 stats he posted in Single A+. While a hit in his production was expected, considering the jump from High-A to Double A is the biggest gap in talent in baseball, Spangenberg will have to adjust quickly – his strikeout rate remained relatively the same after being promoted while his walk rate decreased dramatically.
Looking ahead…Spangenberg will likely begin next season in San Antonio again, with an outside shot of making the Triple A team. If his production improves the way it did this year, Spangenberg could be looking at a September 2014 call-up to the Padres.
#113 – Brandon Workman, right-handed pitcher, Boston Red Sox
August 19, 2013; San Francisco, CA, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Brandon Workman (67) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the ninth inning at AT
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 195 lbs
Born: August 13, 1988 (age 25)
2013 Minor League Stats (at Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket): 3.21 ERA in 17 G, 16 GS (101 IP), 36 ER, 30 BB, 108 K, 1.188 WHIP
2013 Major League Stats: 4.54 ERA in 17 G, 3 GS (39.2 IP), 20 ER, 14 BB, 45 K, 1.336 WHIP
Heading into 2013…Control is a huge part of Workman’s game and one of the strengths that might carry him pretty far as a part of the next wave of pitching prospects working their way through Boston’s minor league system. The former University of Texas product and 2nd Round pick (2010) pitched well enough this past season to earn a promotion to Double-A for the final few starts of the year. He’ll likely repeat the level in 2013, but that’s more of a formality than a sign that he isn’t ready for that next level. If he can continue to keep extra batters off base then he could be in line for a big jump on next year’s rankings.
Now that the 2013 season is (almost) over… Originally a placeholder in the Red Sox rotation, Workman has pitched out of the bullpen ever since Jake Peavy changed his sox from White to Red (ba-dum-tsss). He has struggled as a reliever in the majors this year, pitching to a 6.33 ERA in 21.1 IP out of the ‘pen. Workman was a starter throughout his minor league career, and has admitted that the transition from the rotation has been “challenging.” However, that number is slightly skewed due to 6 of the 15 earned runs he’s given up in relief came in an August 6th 15-10 Red Sox victory, in which Workman threw 4.2 IP. Since then Workman has been essentially lights out.
Looking ahead… It’s almost guaranteed that Workman will break camp with the Red Sox next year. Whether it’s as a starter or a reliever is still up in the air.
Mar 12, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Puerto Rico outfielder Eddie Rosario (17) hits a double against the United States at Marlins Park. United States defeated Puerto Rico 7-1. Mandatory Credit: Scott Rovak-USA TODAY Sports
#112 – Eddie Rosario, second baseman, Minnesota Twins
Height/Weight: 6’0”, 170
Born: September 28, 1991 (age 21)
2013 Stats (at Single A+ Ft. Myers: .329/.377/.527 in 207 ABs, 13 2B, 6 HR, 35 RBI)
2013 Stats (at Double-A New Britain: .284/.330/.412 in 289 ABs, 19 2B, 4 HR, 38 RBI)
Heading into 2013… Some Twins fans will likely question why Rosario isn’t a bit higher on this list, particularly after some recent comparisons that were made at our Twins site, Puckett’s Pond, that suggest he could develop into a player in the Dustin Pedroia/Dustin Ackley mold. What causes me some hesitation, however, is the fact that he needed to repeat the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League. Sure, he was drafted and signed at a young age but showed little reason (at least from a statistical standpoint) to suggest that he wouldn’t have been ready to advance to that next level. Even at just 21 years of age an argument could be made that he should be further along than he is.
Now that the 2013 season is (almost) over… Rosario was featured in our article about the Twins’ future dynasty, highlighted as the starting second baseman in 2015. His strikeout rate ballooned after his promotion (12.6% to 21.4%) meaning he may not yet be ready for upper level pitching. Rosario will need to learn better patience and plate discipline if he wishes to succeed. He has always been an extremely dedicated worker, so don’t expect these problems to continue. However, if they do, we may not be seeing much of Rosario in the future.
Looking ahead… Rosario will probably start next year where he ended this year, at Double-A Ft. Myers. The Twins will take their time with Rosario (he turns 22 later in September) and eventually he could make a formidable bat in the Twins lineup behind Miguel Sano.
March 04, 2013; Port St Lucie, FL, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Jeurys Familia (27) throws during the spring training game against the Atlanta Braves at Tradition Field. Atlanta defeated the New York 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports
#111 – Jeurys Familia, right-handed pitcher, New York Mets
Height/Weight: 6’4”, 230
Born: October 10, 1989 (age 23)
2013 Stats (at Triple-A Las Vegas): 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 K, 1.2 WHIP
2013 Major League Stats (with Mets): 3.48 ERA in 10.1 IP, 7 K, 7 BB, 1.645 WHIP
Heading into 2013… Familia briefly made his MLB Debut this past season, but it seems evident that the organization’s plans for him remain up in the air. Used primarily out of the bullpen in September, the team should be heading into Spring Training with Familia in the mix for the final spot in the starting rotation. Should be fail to win that battle he’ll likely head down to Triple-A, however his fate will become even more uncertain. Familia’s name has frequently come up in trade discussions (or at least in speculation) and he is one of those rare prospects that appears more likely to be dealt than shown patience.
Now that the 2013 season is (almost) over… Familia was viewed by some in the Mets organization as a frontline starter, however those perceptions have all but evaporated. Used exclusively out of the bullpen this year, Familia showed slight progress in command from his stint last year, but was sidelined bone chips in his pitching elbow and underwent surgery to remove them in May. Having recently been reactivated from the DL, it seems Familia is destined to be a middle-reliever, with a slim chance of developing into a closer candidate seeing as the Mets current closer, Bobby Parnell, is out indefinitely with a herniated disk in his neck.
Looking ahead… Familia realistically has zero chance at becoming an elite closer, much less a formidable one. The best thing Mets fans can hope for him is a solid late-inning option, but he’ll have to avoid the injury bug.