Texas Rangers Hitting Prospects: So Far, Profar Appears Certain to Go Far
By Jim Pieper
The eyes of Texas are on Jurickson Profar, and so is the Seedlings to Stars STAT-Scan. And, as with Wil Myers (in our last article), the scanner is right in line with the consensus: all systems go.
Jurickson Profar is generally regarded as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball going into 2013. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
In our S2S STAT-Scans, each player is assigned a “Plate Skills Index,” which is based on the ability to “win plate appearances” (described in detail here), a “Production Index,” based on the ability to produce offense (described in detail here), and a “Composite Index,” which is a combination of the two. Additional detail on “the three numbers,” with some examples, can be found here.
It is important to remember that age, level and position also factor into the analysis. And note that this is a statistical analysis of the actual results, so scouting reports don’t factor into the numbers.
Threat Level: Midnight
Jurickson Profar, SS (S2S Top 115 #1) … 2013 age: 20; 2012 levels: AA
Plate Skills: 124 Production: 107 Composite: 131
You can’t argue with the consensus view that Profar is the best prospect out there. Besides playing shortstop, and besides being just 19 and playing in AA, and besides the almost-unheard-of-low strikeout rate of 14.1% (that’s good, trust us) … there’s the little matter of the 26 doubles, the 7 triples, the 14 home runs and the 66 walks. Yeah, that’ll do.
High Alert
Mike Olt, 3b (S2S Top 115 #23) … 2013 age: 24; 2012 level: AA
Plate Skills: 140 Production: 139 Composite: 179
Olt’s 28 home runs and .291 ISO light up the board instantly, but it’s the 60 walks that indicate he’s got all-around skills. He strikes out more than one would like, but if he can keep up the big-time power and patience, it won’t matter that much.
Leonys Martin, OF … 2013 age: 25; 2012 level: AAA, MLB
Plate Skills: 123 Production: 134 Composite: 157
You can’t ask for much more than what Martin did at AAA: .359/.422/.610, but he wasn’t able to translate it to his major-league callup. Martin is kind of hard to figure since he didn’t enter U.S. baseball until age 23 (from Cuba). For a typical prospect, he’d be getting on the old side, but it’s hard to know how Martin will develop.
On the Radar
Drew Robinson, 3b … 2013 age: 21; 2012 level: Low-A
Plate Skills: 130 Production: 96 Composite: 126
Robinson’s 86 walks and .409 OBP brought him to the attention of the STAT-Scan. If he can keep that up with a decent amount of power, he can make an impact.
Distant Early Warning
Joey Gallo, 1b (S2S Top 115 #88)
Plate Skills: 165 Production: 195 Composite: 260
Wow. Gallo unloaded a monstrous amount of production in just 59 games after being taken No. 39 overall in the 2012 draft. True, most of his 22 homers came at the rookie-league level, but you don’t see raw power like that very often. Of course, he struck out a ton, too. But if he’s got Giancarlo Stanton-type power, it won’t matter that much. The thing is that very few do.
On the Whole
The Rangers keep coming up with fresh talent, and, even without Profar, Olt, Martin and Gallo are an interesting crop. With Profar, it’s one that Texas folk can be very excited about.