Tampa Bay Rays Hitting Prospects: Everybody Loves New Ray Myers
By Jim Pieper
Our Seedlings to Stars scanner takes spring break in Florida with a STAT-Scan of the Tampa Bay Rays. After years of growing their own talent, the Rays became an importer this year, as they shipped James Shields to Kansas City and obtained a bunch of prospects back, including the very highly touted Wil Myers. Our readings are right in line with the consensus on this one.
Wil Myers is now donning a Rays uniform after coming over in the James Shields trade. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
In our S2S STAT-Scans, each player is assigned a “Plate Skills Index,” which is based on the ability to “win plate appearances” (described in detail here), a “Production Index,” based on the ability to produce offense (described in detail here), and a “Composite Index,” which is a combination of the two. Additional detail on “the three numbers,” with some examples, can be found here.
It is important to remember that age, level and position also factor into the analysis. And note that this is a statistical analysis of the actual results, so scouting reports don’t factor into the numbers.
Threat Level: Midnight
Wil Myers, OF (S2S Top 115 #4) … 2013 age: 22; 2012 level: AA, AAA
Plate Skills: 111 Production: 132 Composite: 143
Myers belted 37 homers at age 21 in the upper minors (slugging .600 between AA and AAA). He also drew 61 walks. Even if he doesn’t play center, the numbers say he’s a good bet to be a future star. If he plays center field (and he played 67 games there in 2012), then it’s that much better.
High Alert
Hak-Ju Lee, SS (S2S Top 115 #92) … 2013 age: 22; 2012 level: AA
Plate Skills: 79 Production: 72 Composite: 51
How is Lee on here with these scores? Because he was playing in AA at age 21, and because his defense at short is considered top-rate. For a young guy playing a “glove” position, the offensive numbers are adequate.
Joshua Sale, OF … 2013 age: 21; 2012 level: Low-A
Plate Skills: 146 Production: 112 Composite: 158
Lefty-hitting Sale put up better numbers than the Rays’ more-heralded prospects (.264/.391/.464), though it’s tainted by a drug suspension. If he stays clean, those numbers put him on track for the majors.
On the Radar
Alejandro Segovia, C … 2013 age: 23; 2012 level: Low-A
Plate Skills: 137 Production: 134 Composite: 171
Segovia isn’t on any of the lists, and he was on the older side for Low-A, but you can’t argue with the results: .269/.362/.527. And for a catcher. He’ll be one to watch at higher levels.
Distant Early Warning
Granden Goetzman, OF … 2013 age: 20; 2012 level: Rookie
Plate Skills: 102 Production: 112 Composite: 114
The Rays’ 2nd-round pick from 2011 only played 12 games, but was impressive at the plate in that limited action.
Oscar Hernandez, C … 2013 age: 19; 2012 level: Rookie
Plate Skills: 118 Production: 97 Composite: 115
Another interesting catcher. Look past the .231 average to the .163 ISO and the 23 walks.
On the Whole
The younger guys in the Rays’ system were looking good, but the top levels didn’t show up much on our scan. Then came the trade, and suddenly Tampa has one of the very top near-majors hitters around. Myers looks like the real deal, thus reestablishing the Rays pipeline.