2012 Fish Watch: NL Central (Part 2) – May Edition

The first thing you need to know about The Fish Watch is that it’s not a list of sleepers. It is instead a list of players at various points in their respective minor league journeys that for one reason or another have piqued my interest enough that I am watching their development more closely than the bulk of prospects out there. To read more about this project, check out the introduction and master list.

Today we cover half the players representing the NL Central for the first time. The Cardinals, Pirates and Brewers were included in yesterday’s article. You will find the Fish Watch representatives from the Cubs, Reds and Astros in today’s edition (after the jump).

Chicago Cubs (S2S 2012 Cubs Team Prospect List)

3B – Jeimer Candelario (18) – Signed out of the Dominican Republic as a NDFA October 2010

Reasoning – As I wrote in my Cubs TPL article, “While stats don’t mean as much in the DSL, his performance – as a 17-year old – was impressive regardless of the league. Based on scouting reports, the plate discipline and ability to hit for average are for real. He already flashes some power and that aspect of his game should continue to develop as well. While his bat is very advanced for a 17-year old, the defense needs some work. He seems likely to move across the diamond as he gets older but his bat has the potential to carry him to the majors regardless of where he plays.”

2011 – DSL Cubs (Rk): 0.337/.443/.478, 16 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 4 SB, 50 BB and 42 SO in 305 PA
2012 – Not Yet Assigned

Notes – Presumably the Arizona Summer League will be his 2012 destination which means we have to wait until June 20th for Jeimer’s season debut.

OF –Reggie Golden (20) – Cubs 2010 2nd Round Pick

Reasoning – Again turning to the TPL, “He’s an outstanding athlete blessed with a great deal of talent but molding that talent into a professional baseball player is going to take some work. Golden has good speed and a strong arm but it’s his power potential that’s most intriguing. The attrition rate on guys like this is very high, but when they pan out they’re certainly worth the risk.”

2011 – Boise (A-): 0.242/.332/.420, 22 XBH, 5 SB, 28 BB and 68 SO in 265 PA
2012 – Peoria (A): 0.192/.250/.192, 0 XBH, 1 SB, 1 BB and 9 SO in 28 PA

Notes – Golden got just 7 games into his season before blowing out his knee on April 12th and landing on the DL shortly thereafter. He reportedly tore his ACL, has since had surgery and is likely lost for the rest of the season.

RHP – Ben Wells (19) – Cubs 2010 7th Round Pick

Reasoning – As with Golden and Candelario I wrote him up for the TPL so why reinvent the wheel? “At 6’2″ and 220 he’s a got the frame you want in a durable starter. He will likely never be a high SO guy since he prefers to use his low-90s sinking fastball – that peaks at 94 – to generate ground balls. It’s something he’s successful with as evidenced by his 56.1% ground ball rate in 2011. As he advances and the defense behind him improves so too will his ERA, WHIP, and H/9. His arsenal also includes a slider that could evolve into a plus pitch, a changeup that he picked up in instructional league after the 2010 season and a splitter that’s a holdover from his high school days.”

2011 – Boise (A-): 4.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 83 H, 19 BB and 53 SO in 77.1 IP
2012 – Peoria (A): 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 38 H, 7 BB and 29 SO in 34.2 IP

Notes – Wells has shown improvement this season by dropping his walk rate and increasing his strikeout rate. In his last 20.1 IP he’s given up just 6 ER, 19 H and 5 BB with 18 SO.

Cincinnati Reds (S2S 2012 Reds Team Prospect List)

3B – David Vidal (22) – Reds 2010 8th Round Pick

Reasoning – Statistically Vidal stood out with his work at the plate in 2011, but it was his work on defense that both impressed and surprised. Heading into the 2010 draft the profiles suggested he would wind up at 2B as a professional but a couple seasons in the minors have completely rewritten those projections. He’s now viewed as a well-above average defensive third basemen with a solid arm and excellent range.

2011 – Dayton (A): 0.280/.350/.498, 37 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 3 SB, 44 BB and 111 SO in 514 PA
2012 – Bakersfield (A+)/Pensacola (AA): 0.255/.326/.442, 8 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 3 SB, 15 BB and 38 SO in 185 PA

Notes – Vidal picked up where he left off in Dayton by hitting 0.281/.358/.512 with Bakersfield before earning a promotion to Pensacola. Double-A has slowed his bat through 48 PA but there’s little reason to think he won’t be able to adapt.

LHP – Tony Cingrani (22) – Reds 2011 3rd Round Pick

Reasoning – Cingrani was nothing short of phenomenal last season and was the easy choice for my 2011 Pioneer League All-Star team ace. Beyond the stats, I wrote this about him in the Reds TPL, “He’s already dealt with and recovered from major struggles in college making him more capable of dealing with any adversity he encounters in the minors. At 6’4″ and 200 pounds he has the build to hold up in the rotation and he’s left-handed making him all the more valuable. Cingrani is a fairly polarizing prospect but I see a guy destined to be a #3 starter”

2011 – Billings (Rk): 1.75 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 35 H, 6 BB and 80 SO in 51.1 IP
2012 – Bakersfield (A+): 1.05 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 35 H, 12 BB and 69 SO in 51.1 IP

Notes – At this point, he’s matched his 2011 output in terms of innings and the results are even more staggering. His BB/9 has bumped up from 1.1 to 2.1 but he’s kept his H/9 exactly the same at 6.1 and continues to strike out well over a batter per inning. Cingrani has been simply amazing but also consistent. He hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in any start this season. Oh yeah, the elephant in the room … he’s pitching in the California League this year.

RHP – James Allen (22) – Reds 2011 7th Round Pick

Reasoning – Allen was born in Missouri, pitched at Kansas State and dominated in the Pioneer League last season.

2011 – Billings (Rk): 1.26 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 21 H, 5 BB and 39 SO in 28.2 IP
2012 – Dayton (A): 4.76 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 35 H, 12 BB and 27 SO in 34.0 IP

Notes – Midwest League hitters have proven to be a stiffer challenge. Allen has uncharacteristically struggled to throw strikes and has had very few clean outings in his first 14 appearances of the season. Obviously there’s no need to panic but I was certainly hoping for bigger things early on in 2012.

Houston Astros (S2S 2012 Astros Team Prospect List)

3B/C – Mike Kvasnicka (23) – Astros 2010 Supplemental Pick

Reasoning – Kvasnicka was the top player taken in the 2010 draft from the University of Minnesota. He was also born, raised and attended high school in Lakeville, MN. Beyond his multiple ties to my home state, at draft time he was viewed to have the bat and other tools to reach the majors as an outfielder and his ability to possibly wind up behind the plate further augmented his value.

2011 – Lexington (A): 0.260/.328/.368, 32 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 5 SB, 46 BB and 106 SO in 536 PA
2012 – Lexington (A): 0.181/.231/.312, 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 1 SB, 7 BB and 43 SO in 147 PA

Notes – After signing, Kvasnicka played C, 3B and RF in the NY-Penn League. Last year Houston had him man the hot corner in all but one game. This year they decided to move him back to catcher and even though the organization wisely had him repeat A-ball to help with the position change, he’s struggled with the transition. It’s taking some time but it appears he’s starting to pull things together. After hitting a paltry 0.118/.167/.191 in April he’s hit 0.243/.293/.429 in 18 games this month.

OF – Javaris Reynolds (19) – Astros 2011 7th Round Pick

Reasoning – Reynolds is a raw, athletic outfielder with some upside. It’s a profile that provides a lot more “miss” than “hit” when teams take chances on these guys but the payoff can be significant if the player puts things together. Javaris is certainly one of those guys, but he makes this list because he showed a better approach than I expected from him in his pro debut.

2011 – GCL Astros (Rk): 0.228/.354/.247, 3 2B, 15 SB, 19 BB and 40 SO in 194 PA
2012 – Not Yet Assigned

Notes – A return to rookie ball to start 2012 was expected so now we just have to wait for a few weeks.

RHP – Jonas Dufek (23) – Astros 2011 9th Round Pick

Reasoning – Born in Omaha, Dufek stayed close to home and pitched for Creighton University. He was one of just two Jays selected in the 2011 draft and, in addition to the Yankees Pat Venditte, represents my alma mater on the 90 player Fish Watch list.

2011 – Tri-City (A-): 3.71 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 55 H, 16 BB and 37 SO in 51.0 IP
2012 – Lexington (A): 5.56 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 51 H, 14 BB and 32 SO in 43.2 IP

Notes – 2012 has certainly not unfolded as Dufek or the Astros were hoping. His best start of the year was a 5.0 inning, 6 hit, 2 run effort against Kannapolis on April 13th. The other eight have been mediocre to bad and he’s been getting hit on a fairly consistent basis. So far there have been no signs of dominance though his ratios aren’t far off of what he put up in his time with Tri-City.