2012 MLB Draft: Deven Marrero’s “Struggles” Are Signs of Progress

Players aren’t drafted anywhere near exclusively based on their performance- a critical part of evaluating players is assaying their potential. But it’s always nice when you draft a player that not only has tremendous potential but also lit up his competition the year of the draft. It’s frustrating when that doesn’t happen. Take Deven Marrero.

Marrero, Arizona State University’s starting shortstop, is lauded for his defense and has been viewed for a while as a probable top 10 pick in the 2012 MLB Draft. But Marrero’s performance at the plate in 2012 has elicited concerns.

As a freshman at ASU in 2010, Marrero had an excellent season, posting a .397/.442/.628 line with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 6 homers, 42 RBI, and 11 stolen bases in 12 tries in 42 games. As a sophomore, Marrero dropped up precipitously with the bat but still had a nice season, posting a .319/.354/.444 line with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 2 homers, 20 RBI, and 10 stolen bases in 15 tries in 51 games. And now in 2012 he has dropped off even more, posting a .276/.335/.396 line with 7 doubles, 4 triples, 3 homers, 26 RBI, and 10 out of 13 in stolen bases in 44 games. Is there legitimate reason to be concerned about Marrero?

We have to think about what kind of player Marrero really is. Marrero is an excellent defensive shortstop and that’s his calling card. Offensively, the 6’1″, 194 Marrero has a little pop but is primarily a scrappy contact hitter who steals bases. Marrero’s freshman year propped up expectations for him to an unreasonable level. His BAbip was an unsustainable .437. His BAbip fell to .354 before dropping just .283 in 2012. Considering ASU’s team BAbip is .318, that should be a serious sign for concern.

Marrero’s problem right now is relatively simple. For a hitter without very much power, he has too many moving parts in his swing and his timing has occasionally been thrown off. That has led to Marrero hitting groundballs at a high rate, which has in turn led to his low BAbip and low average. Luckily, it shouldn’t be overly hard to simplify Marrero’s swing in pro ball. And then there’s also the big step forward he has taken, even with the problems in his swing. Thus far in 2012, Marrero has struck out just 13 times compared to 15 walks. That’s in sharp contrast to his strikeout to walk ratio the past two seasons, 24-13 and 29-13. Icing on the cake is that Marrero has also upped his ISO from .125 in 2011 to .138 in 2012. Marrero may be struggling overall, but his plate discipline is as good as ever and his ability to drive the ball for extra-base hits has improved from 2011 as well. It’s incredible that amidst a season of struggles, he has managed to make strides in a couple of key areas.

Where should Marrero be selected in the draft? Back in late February, I had Marrero going 7th overall to the San Diego Padres. Maybe Marrero has slipped slightly, but considering his defense, his offensive progress, and the clear ability to correct his swing, he’s still a top-10 talent in this draft class. Don’t let the .276 batting average fool you. Deven Marrero is still a very good all-around player and a player that a whole bunch of teams will be clamoring for on draft day.