Top-100 Showdown Redux: AL Central

Putting together a Top-100 prospect list is a massive undertaking and any site that takes on the challenge deserves to be recognized for their efforts. Just about a month ago I did a 7-part series comparing the lists of six sources – Baseball Instinct, MLB.com, MLB Prospect Portal, Project Prospect, Scout.com, and S2S.

Now that I’m done with my portion of our team prospect lists, I can revisit this comparative series by looking at another grouping of Top-100 lists from seven new sources. Just as I did the first time around I will tackle one division at a time and then cap it off with a conclusion piece with some final thoughts and system rankings. The sources I have selected for the showdown “redux” series are:

We will start in the same place we did last time; the AL Central. The division had 19 players – 13 of them from the Royals and Twins – make at least one of the seven Top-100 lists while six of those 19 were consensus selections.

Chicago White Sox [2]

Position	Player	BA	BP	Bant	JS	Spec	MD	TPA
RHP	Addison Reed	66	81		44
RHP	Nestor Molina				72	72

Nothing new here. Reed and Molina are clearly the only two White Sox prospects that are in the Top-100 discussion and neither are consensus guys. I’ve looked at 13 lists in total and both players have been listed on just half of them (6). Sickels’ ranking of Reed at #44 matches our ranking of Molina #44 on the S2S Top-100 while all other sources have placed both guys on the back half of their lists.

Most curious ranking(s): Nothing stands out though Molina made 4/6 lists the first time around but just 2/7 above.

Cleveland Indians [1]

Position	Player	BA	BP	Bant	JS	Spec	MD	TPA
SS	Francisco Lindor	37	17	24	46	53	31	35

The Indians have a number of guys I like that are down in rookie ball but this is just more evidence that there is a lack of impact talent on the radar right now. On the bright side, their one ranked player is nearly a consensus guy as Lindor was been named on 12/13 lists overall. If you’re a pessimist he – like so many of the systems best talents – is very light on pro experience and is quite a ways away.

Most curious ranking(s): Hard to find fault with the above as Lindor only has 20 PA in the NYPL on his resume and sites weigh potential and performance very differently based on their individual methodologies. I have no problem with anyone ranking him around #20 and also no problem slipping him in at the very back of the list. The only curiosity here is how close these seven lists had him ranked as there was far more variance in the six lists I looked at previously.

Detroit Tigers [3]

Position	Player	BA	BP	Bant	JS	Spec	MD	TPA
RHP	Jacob Turner	22	15	19	18	27	17	28
3B	Nick Castellanos	45	71	56	59		30	51
LHP	Drew Smyly							71

Turner runs the table yet again making him a perfect 13/13 on the lists I’ve looked at. Castellanos once again just misses being a consensus selection and was named on 11/13 overall.

Most curious ranking(s): I continue to be astounded by the lack of love for Drew Smyly. I get that he lacks premium fastball velocity but everything else is there and he’s a lefty. All told, he made just 3 of the 13 Top-100s I’ve included in this comparative exercise.

Kansas City Royals [7]

Position	Player	BA	BP	Bant	JS	Spec	MD	TPA
LHP	Mike Montgomery	23		49		40	33	30
OF	Bubba Starling	24	27	27	38	24	24	23
OF	Wil Myers	28	19	13	14	19	26	27
RHP	Jake Odorizzi	68	47	35	60	70	38	73
3B	Cheslor Cuthbert	84	83	59	39		65	83
LHP	John Lamb		82	85		88	90
SS	Christian Colon					67

It’s really hard for me to keep my excitement in check when it comes to the Royals. Stacking the Top-100 lists up next to each other is making it next to impossible. Starling and Myers made all 13 lists and aside from Nathaniel slotting Bubba at #52 on the S2s list, both guys were consensus Top-50. Odorizzi made 12/13, Montgomery made 11/13, Cuthbert made 10/13 and despite the Tommy John surgery Lamb made 7/13. Then we have Yordano Ventura, Jorge Bonifacio and Colon who all found their way on to one of the lists.

Most curious ranking(s): Montgomery struggled with his control in 2011 but everything else is there. I can’t help but look at the table above and think that Baseball Prospectus and Sickels’ are making a mistake by omitting him completely from their lists. Especially since the other 5 sources still have him solidly in the Top-50 and he was a consensus Top-100 guy on the six lists I looked at last time. Curious probably doesn’t begin to define the inclusion of Colon – at #67 no less – especially on a list that omits Cuthbert all together.

Minnesota Twins [6]

Position	Player	BA	BP	Bant	JS	Spec	MD	TPA
3B	Miguel Sano	18	12	32	31	60	22	18
OF	Joe Benson	99	90					77
2B/OF	Eddie Rosario		87	94	90		93
OF	Oswaldo Arcia			90	91
RHP	Adrian Salcedo					65
OF	Aaron Hicks					74

You’d be hard pressed to find a system with so many significant discrepancies on the opinions and evaluations of so many prospects. Miguel Sano is the organization’s only consensus player and no one else made more than half of the 13 lists examined. Things aren’t all that bleak however as a total of nine Twins farm hands made at least one of the lists suggesting a healthy amount of depth if nothing else.

Most curious ranking(s): Joe Benson made 3/7 lists above and it’s certainly a justifiable inclusion. The curiosity with respect to his prospect standing is that he failed to crack the Top-100 on any of the six I examined last time.

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