S2S 2012 Team Prospect Lists: Atlanta Braves
By Aaron Somers
With the S2S 2012 Top 100 Prospects List now in the books, it’s time to take a closer look at the future of each team. And that means team prospect lists!
Most minor league sites will do top-10s, top-15s, top-20s, or some other ranking. Last year, to be a bit different, the FanSided team prospect lists (which were done at Call to the Pen, since S2S didn’t exist), instead listed a team’s top prospect at each position (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OFs, 5 SPs, and 2 RPs). This year, we’re keeping that format, but also adding a “Best of the Rest” section that lists the top ten players beyond the positional rankings. That’s 25 players per system, if you’re counting.
Atlanta Braves
Like the Diamondbacks, the Braves have a minor league system that unquestionably slants toward pitching, led by three arms that got MLB looks last year: Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino. They don’t quite have Arizona’s incredible pitching depth, but players like Christian Bethancourt, Joe Terdoslavich, Tyler Pastornicky, Andrelton Simmons, and Edward Salcedo give them some players that could turn into solid everyday guys, so they have a better crop of position players. There’s a notable hole in the outfield in the system, where the dubious Matt Lipka is the organization’s top prospect and it gets worse from there.
Position Player Upside: B-
Position Player Depth: B
Pitching Upside: A-
Pitching Depth: B
System Grade: B
Catcher: Christian Bethancourt. Bethancourt is a difficult prospect to get a handle on. On one hand, he’s incredible defensively, throwing out 38% of runners both in 2011 and his career. He just turned 20 in September, and he’s thought to have considerable offensive potential as well. However, he walked just 11 times in 99 games this year and 14 in 108 games in 2010, and he’s hit just eight homers over the last two years as well, so he has a long way to go in those areas. In short, he’s very advanced in some areas, but very raw in others, and it may be a few years before we really have a good idea what to expect from him. Grade: B-
First base: Joe Terdoslavich. Terdoslavich hit 20 homers and 52 doubles in the offense-killing Carolina League. The move from third base to first hurts his value, but he may have just enough in his bat to work out at the position in the big leagues. His 107/41 K/BB could use some improvement, and he’s already 23, so he’ll need to move quickly. Grade: B-
Second base: Tommy La Stella. An 8th-round pick in 2011, La Stella immediately hit .328/.401/.543 in Low-A, with a 28/26 K/BB in 63 games. He’s a very good all-around hitter, but his defensive ability at second lags behind. In a perfect world, he becomes a poor man’s Edgardo Alfonzo. Grade: B-
Third base: Edward Salcedo. Salcedo is sort of a rawer, higher-upside version of Terdoslavich. He’s three years younger and only one level lower, and yet had a nearly-identical K/BB ratio to Terdoslavich, and he’s still a third baseman. However, Salcedo’s power has yet to explode, as he hit just .248/.315/.396 in Low-A. He also made 40 errors at third base, fielding just .872, and will need to make rapid strides if he’s going to stick at the hot corner. Like Bethancourt, sort of an odd mix of being advanced in some areas and behind the curve in others. Grade: B-
Shortstop: Tyler Pastornicky. Pastornicky squeaked into the final spot on my Top 100 Prospects. He’s not flashy, but he hit .314/.359/.414 in the upper minors as a 21-year-old, stole 27 bases, and should be an average defensive shortstop in the majors. He won’t be a star, but I can’t think of many middle infielders who are better bets to have sustained careers in the majors without moving down the defensive spectrum. Grade: B+
Outfielder #1: Matt Lipka. Lipka was often talked up as a big “on the rise” guy in the 2010-11 offseason after being selected 35th overall in 2010, but his first full season was largely a flop in Low-A, as he put up a measly .609 OPS and was caught on 1/3 of his steal attempts. The Braves are attempting a Grant Green-style position move with Lipka, moving him from shortstop to center field, and he should stick there. On the plus side, he just turns 20 in April and his approach (83/42 K/BB) isn’t bad for such a young player. Grade: C+
Outfielder #2: Adam Milligan. Milligan can hit (career .301/.356/.546), but he’s never even played 70 games in a season due to injuries. He’s not a defensive asset and is basically confined to left field, and he’ll be 24 in Spring Training with no upper-minors experience. Even though he hit well last year, his 76/16 K/BB in 64 games portends trouble, especially since he was old for his level. Grade: C
Outfielder #3: Stefan Gartrell. Gartrell turns 28 this week, so he’s nobody’s idea of a top prospect. The longtime White Sox farmhand was picked up by Atlanta early in 2011 and delivered the power production that’s been his calling card. Gartrell’s a huge guy with a huge swing who’s hit 53 homers over the last two seasons in Triple-A. He owns a plus arm that helps him in right field, but he’s not a bigtime athlete, and he’s not particularly adept at either taking walks or avoiding strikeouts. A team could do worse than having him as a lefty-mashing corner guy/pinch-hitter, and he’s ready now, but he obviously lacks upside. Grade: C
Starting Pitcher #1: Julio Teheran. Teheran ranked #7 on the top 100. He’s hit some minor speed bumps in the upper minors, but he’ll be 21 for the entirety of the 2012 season and has the raw three-pitch mix to be a top-of-the-line starter. He needs to improve his sequencing and get better plane on his fastball, but he’s basically MLB-ready now and has a decade to figure out those relatively minor adjustments. Grade: A
Starting Pitcher #2: Randall Delgado. Delgado is similar to Teheran in a number of ways, but he’s not quite on the same level. In particular, his breaking ball is lacking. Still, his fastball/changeup combination is elite, and he’s just 22 for the whole 2012 season. He could use a bit more seasoning, but the #21 prospect on my list is a good bet to be a solid #2/#3 starter. Grade: A-
Starting Pitcher #3: Sean Gilmartin. A 2011 first-round pick from Florida State (28th overall), Gilmartin immediately dominated Low-A, with a 30/2 K/BB in 21 1/3 IP. The 21-year-old could move quickly thanks to an advanced three-pitch arsenal, much like Mike Minor. He doesn’t have huge upside, but could easily be a quality #4 starter or perhaps a #3. Grade: B
Starting Pitcher #4: Carlos Perez. Perez has higher upside than Gilmartin, but he’s significantly more erratic, as evidenced by his 109/66 K/BB ratio. Still, he was a 19-year-old in Low-A, and he’s a lefty with a good fastball and curveball. He could be a #2 or #3 starter if everything works out, but he could also end up in relief. Grade: B
Starting Pitcher #5: J.R. Graham. The Braves’ 4th-round pick in 2011, Graham put up a 52/13 K/BB with no homers allowed in 57 2/3 innings in the Appalachian League. He’s 21, so short-season stats don’t mean much, but he’s got an electric power sinker, but his slider and changeup still need work. 2012 will tell us a lot about whether he’s a starter or reliever down the road, but he has mid-rotation or closer potential. Grade: B-
Relief Pitcher #1: Arodys Vizcaino. Vizcaino still may start, but he was a reliever with the Braves, and I believe he’ll stay in that role. Given his size, two-pitch mix, and high-effort mechanics, his stuff will play up in relief, and the Braves have so many starters around that they can afford to shunt Vizcaino to the less valuable role. He’s one of the elite relief prospects in the game with a mid-90’s fastball, excellent power curve, and late-season MLB success. Grade: B+
Relief Pitcher #2: Cody Martin. The seventh-round pick in 2011 put up a blistering 35/4 K/BB in Low-A in his pro debut. He works in the low 90’s, has a very good breaking ball, and spots both pitches with aplomb from a repeatable and slightly deceptive delivery. He should move quickly and turn into a solid relief asset. Grade: C+
Best of the Rest
#1.) Andrelton Simmons, SS. Simmons isn’t as advanced as Pastornicky, but he may have higher upside. He hit .311 in High-A in his first pro season, and it was no fluke–he struck out just 43 times in 131 games. That’s where the 22-year-old’s current plus skills, end, though. He hit just one home run, walked just 29 times, was caught on 18 of 44 steal attempts, and made 28 errors at shortstop. He’s often thought to be superior to Pastornicky, but he’s a few months older and two levels behind, so he has a lot of catching up to do if he’s going to supplant Pastornicky in the Atlanta lineup at some point. Grade: B-
#2.) Kyle Kubitza, 3B. Kubitza was a third-round pick this year, and he crushed the Appalachian League in his pro debut, hitting .321/.407/.475. He has a very good approach and good gap power, but he could stand to turn some of those doubles into homers after hitting just one big fly in 44 games. He also fielded .887 at third base in his pro debut; while he has the athleticism to stick there, he must improve his consistency at the position. Grade: B-
#3.) J.J. Hoover, RHP. Like Vizcaino, he’ll probably end up in the bullpen, at least in this organization. A classic fourth-starter type, there’s just no room for him in future Braves rotations that will feature many of the pitchers ahead of him and at least Brandon Beachy and Mike Minor. He could be a valuable piece of trade bait for a team that wants a cheap and solid starting pitcher. Grade: B-
#4.) Nick Ahmed, SS. Ahmed was drafted a round ahead of Kubitza, but his .262/.348/.379 line was far less spectacular than Kubitza’s debut. However, he projects to stick at shortstop. He was probably something of an overdraft, but he could be a solid utility player in the majors thanks to his approach, speed, and defense. Grade: C+
#5.) Zeke Spruill, RHP. A lot of evaluators like Spruill better than this; I see him as a lesser version of Hoover. He’s a workhorse who threw 174 2/3 innings this year, but he was a complete disaster in Double-A, striking out just 16 batters in 45 innings while seeing his groundball abilities vanish (33% GB%). He’s got a good sinker and throws strikes, but I’m not sure he’s more than a fifth starter or middle reliever in the end. Grade: C+
#6.) Brandon Drury, 3B. Drury hit .347 with 23 doubles and eight homers in 63 games as an 18-year-old in the Appalachian League–that’s a lot to like. He also should become a solid defender at third base. However, his average was boosted by a .373 BABIP in an easy environment, and he walked just six times. He has to show better walk/home run ability, or else he’s just a poor man’s Josh Vitters. Grade: C+
#7.) Todd Redmond, RHP. Nobody pays much attention to Redmond; how often do people talk about the ninth-best pitching prospect in a system? At 26, he’s a minor league veteran, but he’s strung together back-to-back strong years at the Triple-A level. In 2011, he posted a 2.92 ERA and a 142/47 K/BB in 169 2/3 innings. His big problem, though, is the home run ball (35% GB%, 18 HRA). He could be a nice fourth or fifth starter or middle reliever for a team in a big park, starting from Opening Day this year. Grade: C+
#8.) Aaron Northcraft, RHP. A 10th-round pick in 2009, Northcraft is a big guy with a lot of deception. He put together a decent year in Low-A at age 21 and is another fifth starter/middle-relief candidate. Grade: C
#9.) Evan Gattis, C. Gattis went off on the South Atlantic League in 2011, hitting .322/.386/.601 with 22 homers in 88 games. The bad news is that he was very old for the level, at age 24, and he’s not much of a defensive catcher. Still, you have to take some note when a catcher of any age and defensive ability puts up this sort of power numbers. Grade: C
#10.) Chris Garcia, 1B. Garcia, like Gattis, had a huge year in the SAL, hitting .305/.405/.511. He’s a career .345/.444/.513 hitter if you include his time in independent ball. He’s got a tremendous approach at the plate and has hit everywhere he’s been, but his time in the indy leagues meant that he was already 23 in Low-A last year. As a first baseman, he’ll have to mash to get/stay on the radar. Grade: C
For more on the Braves, check out Tomahawk Take!
Follow S2S on Twitter @Seedlings2Stars and yours truly @stoltz_baseball. Also, like our Facebook page!