The Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects, #4: Matt Moore

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Name: Matt Moore
DOB: 6/18/89
Organization: Rays
Position: Pitcher
Notable 2011 Stats: 2.20 ERA, 2.62 FIP, 8 HRA, 28 BB, 131 K, and 43% GB% in 102 1/3 IP with Montgomery (AA);
1.37 ERA, 2.02 FIP, 3 HRA, 18 BB, 79 K, and 39% GB% in 52 2/3 IP with Durham (AAA);
1.92 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 11 HRA, 46 BB, 210 K, and 42% GB% in 155 IP total in minors;
2.89 ERA, 2.17 FIP, 1 HRA, 3 BB, 15 K, and 42.9% GB% in 9 1/3 IP with Rays

Why He’s This High: Moore is clearly the #1 pitching prospect in the game. He’s more than ready to slot into a major league rotation, as evidenced by his tour de force showing in September and October with the Rays.

He’s basically everything you look for in a pitching prospect–he’s fairly big, throws cleanly, sits in the mid-90′s, has two good offspeed offerings, and commands everything. Statistically, he’s completely dominated everywhere he’s been–he’s never had a strikeout rate below 11.5 K/9 and hasn’t posted a FIP above 3.00 since Rookie ball.

I’d go into more detail on his positive attributes, but there’s no need–he’s got it all, or at least as much as one could reasonably expect.

Why He’s This Low: I’m going to preface this by saying that I feel each of the top four prospects on this list are very close together. You could easily make a case for Moore to be #1 overall.

But why is he fourth? Well, the first factor is that pitchers have a greater likelihood of running into career-altering injuries than hitters. All else equal, I rank a hitter above a pitcher for this reason. Maybe it’s because we’re all spoiled by Stephen Strasburg, but Moore doesn’t quite feel like the truly once-in-a-generation arm that would transcend that. And Strasburg’s own injury shows the risk inherent in calling a pitcher the top prospect in baseball–the Nationals will only basically have five years of control of him instead of six.

Beyond that? Moore’s fastball doesn’t sink–its movement is all lateral–so he’s a flyball guy. That’s perfectly fine given his strikeout rates, but all else equal, you’d rather have him get a higher number of grounders. His secondary pitches don’t have the best consistency, either, as his breaking ball gets slurvy at times and he occasionally throws his changeup too hard. Again, these are extremely minor things–but we all know what’s great about Moore, so I’m just trying to point out his imperfections.

Conclusions: Moore should be an ace, as he’s got three pitches that could be plus at the least, and he commands all of them. If you look deep enough, you can see small warts, but he remains an absolute monster prospect, easily the best pitching prospect in the game, and arguably the best overall.

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Topics: Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

http://rayscoloredglasses.com/ RCG_Robbie

I’m completely biased as a Rays fan, but did you watch him in his first major league start against the Yankees and then against the eventual AL champion Texas Rangers in ALDS Game 1? Moore is certainly no sure thing, but he does have the talent to be that once-in-a-generation arm.

http://seedlingstostars.com/ thebaseballfish

@RCG_Robbie The problem with calling someone a once-in-a-generation arm is that you are saying there is or will be no one better within the span of 10-15 years (or more).

Matt Moore is great and if I were a GM starting a team from scratch I’d be happy to build my rotation around the guy. He’s a special talent and as Nathaniel references – there is a case to be made that he is THE top prospect in baseball right now.. However I’m not prone to hyperbole and there have been pitching prospects on Moore’s level in recent memory.

http://rayscoloredglasses.com/ RCG_Robbie

@thebaseballfish Moore’s minor league strikeout rate is something else. His K/9 for his minor legue career was 12.7 and his FIP was 2.47. If he’s not a once in a generation talent, he’s pretty darn close. Again, I’m biased, but Moore is a special talent.

Wally, I understand your not wanting to give Moore the once-in-a-generation label, but I believe that when it’s all said and done, Moore will be the best left-handed pitcher that debuted in the 2010′s.

http://seedlingstostars.com/ thebaseballfish

@RCG_Robbie Nathaniel and I have both called him special and ranking him 4th overall in a Top-100 and stating there is a case for him as #1 says all you need to know about his standing and our feelings about him.

Best LH, best RH, best pitcher overall it really doesn’t matter. As long as he stays healthy, fronts a rotation and helps his team win he will be a success and an elite MLB pitcher..
http://rayscoloredglasses.com/ RCG_Robbie

@thebaseballfish At the end of the day, that’s all that matters.
http://seedlingstostars.com/ thebaseballfish

@RCG_Robbie I’m just hoping against hope that the Rays keep Moore and Price together over the long haul and both stay healthy. It’s scary to think what they could do as a LH tandem.
http://rayscoloredglasses.com/ RCG_Robbie

@thebaseballfish At least for the next few years, that will be the case. But at some point, Price will go and the Rays will churn out another top pitching prospect in his place. Unless fan support suddenly goes up several notches, that’s the Rays organization will continue to work. And even though it upsets you as a fan when your favorite players leave, that strategy has worked. Look on rayscoloredglasses.com for a post on the Rays’ draft strategy and how it has shaped their franchise over the next few days.
http://seedlingstostars.com/ thebaseballfish

@RCG_Robbie But do we know that Price will go? He’s better than the Garza/Kazmir/Edwin Jackson ilk and none of those 3 were home grown.

It’s fine and good to just say they will draft, develop and replace him with someone else but it really doesn’t work out that way very often. The margin of error is just too small, especially when trying to replace a talent like Price, to rely on that avenue.

I think it is a little premature to assume what the Rays will do on this front a few years down the road as they’ve never been in this position with a pitcher of his caliber. They are also relatively new to the world of competitive baseball and track records have a way of changing over time. If they are serious about competing they’re going to have to step up on one of these guys as they approach free agency.
http://rayscoloredglasses.com/ RCG_Robbie

@thebaseballfish That’s the reality that every Rays fan has to be ready for. We all hope that people will start showing up to games and watching the games and then the Rays will get funding for a new stadium, but that’s not the most likely outcome in the next 5 years at this point. Price neglected to sign an extension with the Rays. In all probability, an extension will never happen. In 4 years, David Price will command a huge free agent contract pending complete disaster. The Rays competing in the next 5 years has to do with a solid core of players that can survive great players leaving an replace them with players that have the potential to be just about as good.

Do I like this? No. I wish we could sign players to the extensions like Tulowitzki and Kemp got and keep them in Rays’ uniforms for their entire career. Maybe an Evan Longoria extension could be a happy exception to that, but other than Longoria, the Rays would never and could never do something like that. Maybe a World Series championship changes the picture and raises fan support. But as of right now, Rays fans have to be ready to accept that David Price will be in another uniform in 4 years.
http://seedlingstostars.com/ thebaseballfish

@RCG_Robbie As a Royals/Twins fans I’m all too versed in the plight of small market teams developing and losing talent. Target Field and the younger Pohlad taking over the team have altered things in Minnesota recently (not that they were ever really a small market since they are around 10-12 in MLB market size), but KC is still very much in the same boat as Tampa Bay.

Maybe I’m just overly optimistic that the smaller payroll teams will start doing more to keep their best players but I’m going to keep holding out hope (foolishly I know) that Price stays with the Rays.

NathanielStoltz

@RCG_Robbie I’ve watched every pitch he threw in the majors. Again, I feel like we’re all kind of spoiled with Strasburg being up recently, so Moore sort of *looks* worse.

Certainly plausible that he’s the best lefty of the 2010s. But I don’t think he’s all that much better of a prospect than, say, Kershaw was.

http://seedlingstostars.com/ thebaseballfish

@NathanielStoltz@RCG_Robbie Well there’s a lot of the 2010s yet to go and I wonder how much better Moore will be than someone like Skaggs let alone any other young lefty that will emerge.

It’s hard to not like his chances of making Robbie look real smart on his projection though…