The Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects, #66: Steve Lombardozzi
By Aaron Somers
Name: Steve Lombardozzi
DOB: 9/20/88
Organization: Nationals
Position: Second base
Notable 2011 Stats: .309/.366/.454 with 12 2B, 7 3B, 4 HR, 38/18 K/BB, and 16-for-19 SB in 65 games with Harrisburg (AA);
.310/.354/.408 with 13 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 40/21 K/BB, and 14-for-19 SB in 69 games with Syracuse (AAA);
.309/.360/.430 with 25 2B, 9 3B, 8 HR, 78/39 K/BB, and 30-for-38 SB in 134 games total in minors;
6-for-31 with 1 2B, 1 BB, 4 K in 13 games with Nationals
Why He’s This High: Lombardozzi is basically ready to start for a major league team at second base right now, after hitting over .300 at both upper-minors levels.
A switch-hitter, Lombardozzi boasts plus speed that has allowed him to consistently post above-average BABIP figures. Between his .320-.355 BABIPs and 11-14% strikeout rates, he excels in both drivers of batting average, and should at least be an annual .270-.280 hitter in the big leagues.
He has enough power to keep the bat from being knocked out of his hands, as he ripped 42 extra-base hits in the minors this year, and he could grow into 10-HR power as he matures–let’s not forget he just turned 23.
Lombardozzi’s plus speed allows him to be an asset on the bases, where he swiped 30 bags this past season, a big improvement over his 24-for-36 performance of 2010 and an indication that the heady infielder is refining his instincts.
Perhaps the most notable positive with Lombardozzi, however, is his glove. He has excellent athleticism for second base, and combines that with fantastic fundamentals–he made no errors in Triple-A. Certainly, fielding percentage isn’t everything, but Lombardozzi also boasts excellent range, to the point where he can play shortstop if needed. He also has experience at third base, although that’s not a big factor in an organization that boasts both Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon.
Why He’s This Low: Lombardozzi doesn’t have a big power ceiling, and therefore, he’s going to have to find his way on base if he’s going to be a bigtime player. His defense should allow him to start as long as his bat doesn’t go completely limp–which it shouldn’t–but given that a lot of his minor league success is built on elevated BABIPs, he’ll need to prove he can sustain that performance in the majors.
That means that Lombardozzi’s going to need to show he can consistently square the ball up for line drives, which isn’t easy to do against big league pitchers. He could also stand to tighten up his strike zone somewhat–his 2/1 minor league K/BB ratio is passable, but if he’s going to be a top-of-the-order hitter, he could use some more margin for error in either his contact rate or his walk rate.
In general, of course, we’re talking about a player with somewhat limited upside. He projects as something like a .285/.340/.400 hitter with plus defense at second base if things go reasonably well, but it’s tough to see Lombardozzi coming up with much more than that except in perhaps a career year, or if he takes an unforeseen step forward with his plate approach.
Conclusions: Lombardozzi is a very underrated prospect who is already MLB-ready at a young age. He should be able to provide average offense and well-above-average defense at a key defensive spot, but he doesn’t have the offensive upside of most players on this list. That explains why he’s underrated, and I believe he’ll continue to be underrated as a major leaguer even if he meets that upside.
In a perfect world, Lombardozzi will become a good #2 hitter (in the traditional sense, not the sabermetric one), whose value in the field makes him far more valuable than he appears. He’s already worth starting for many MLB teams, and could possibly end up a better player than current Washington second baseman Danny Espinosa.
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