The Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects, #70: Michael Choice

Name: Michael Choice
DOB: 11/10/89
Organization: Athletics
Position: Outfield
Notable 2011 Stats: .285/.376/.542 with 28 2B, 1 3B, 30 HR, 134/61 K/BB, and 9-for-14 SB in 118 games with Stockton (High-A)

Why He’s This High: Like the last two prospects on this list, Choice has bigtime power, as his 30 homers attest. He’s carried that power into the Arizona Fall League as well.

Drafted 10th overall in 2010, Choice is more than just a slugger. He’s a very patient hitter who worked walks 11.3% of the time this season. He also held his own in center field, and while he may not stick there long-term, he should be a very solid defender in right field, thanks to his plus arm.

Why He’s This Low: Choice’s biggest flaw is strikeouts. The whiffs have plagued him his entire career, and he struck out well over once a game this season.

To be fair, his 24.7% strikeout rate was a big improvement on his 35.5% in his Northwest League debut. Furthermore, his walk rate somewhat counteracts the strikeouts–while he may not hit for a big average, he should still get on base.

The other issue is Choice’s offensive environment–the California League is a pretty easy place to hit, and somebody with Choice’s profile–a college draftee with big power–should be expected to perform well there. Obviously, his end destination is Oakland, a place that isn’t conducive to that approach (not that I’m dropping him for that). Hitters with this profile can often survive in the low minors before dropping off later, particularly with the jump to Double-A; Choice needs to prove he can still put up the big power numbers against more advanced pitching. As a probable corner outfielder in the end, and one without a whole lot of speed in his game, he’s obviously going to have to hit.

Conclusions: Choice has bigtime power, and he supplements it with good plate discipline. The best-case scenario here is that he can put up Jack Cust 2007-08 numbers for the A’s for a number of years, and without Cust’s defensive problems in the outfield.

At the same time, few on this list have this sort of trouble making contact, and Choice has yet to be challenged in a difficult offensive environment that wouldn’t mask this deficiency. He’s going to need to move from the Cal League to the more difficult Texas League with little difficulty as a 22-year-old next year, and if upper-minors pitchers can continue to find the holes in his swing, Choice’s power may not show up with enough regularity to sustain him. Just look at what happened to Jaff Decker–a fairly similar prospect–when he moved from the Cal League to the Texas League in 2010–his batting average dropped considerably, and he was unable to put up a big slugging percentage without it.

We’ll learn a lot more about Choice by the way he handles the jump. If he could cut down on the strikeouts by 25%, he could be a star slugger. If not, he could just be Greg Halman.

Check out all of the Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects here!

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