The Stuff That Dreams Are Made Of: Mark Hamburger

Many popular opinions of pitching prospects are formed from general scouting reports. While these reports are invaluable resources, they can’t always be trusted. Hundreds of minor league hurlers are credited with “mid-90′s velocity,” but very few MLB starters actually have that grade of heat, for example. It’s incredibly frustrating to hear about a pitcher with “a mid-90′s heater and plus curve,” only to have him come up to the big leagues and show a fastball that averages 90.5 mph and a slider.

When a pitcher come up to the majors, we can finally get a foolproof reading on what exactly his arsenal is comprised of, thanks to the great Pitch F/X system. In this series, I analyze just that–the “stuff” of recently-promoted MLB pitchers. Now that they’ve achieved their big league dreams and thus factor directly into the MLB picture, it’s high time that we know exactly what these guys are providing.

This time, I’m taking a look at Rangers reliever Mark Hamburger.

Known for having an amusing last name and little else as a prospect, Mark Hamburger nonetheless plowed his way to the big leagues in late 2011 after turning in a decent year as a Triple-A swingman (3.88 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 6.89 K/9, 2.87 BB/9). The big righthander got into five games down the stretch for Texas, working eight innings (6 K, 3 BB, 5 H, 4 ER).

He certainly looks the part of a power pitcher, standing 6’4″ and utilizing a high-effort delivery, but such a stereotype would seem to run counter to his pitch-to-contact numbers in Triple-A, would it not?

In fact, Hamburger does throw fairly hard. He averaged 93 mph on his fastball in his MLB cameo, throwing the pitch anywhere from 90-96. The heater has good run and sink, and Hamburger usually emphasizes one of these attributes, either running it inside on righties/away from lefties up in the zone or using the sink to drive it down:

While it has the impressive movement on its side, Hamburger’s fastball didn’t play particularly well in his first few MLB innings. He only got strikes on 61.7% of his heaters, and just two of the 94 offerings were swung at and missed; that explains his inability to produce major strikeout numbers in Triple-A.

The righthander’s second pitch is a power splitter that comes in just a few mph slower than his fastball, to the point where it’s sort of a blur where the splitter ends and the fastball begins:

Ordinarily, the similarity in pitch velocities is seen as a bad thing. In this case, however, it might be beneficial to Hamburger. The effort in his release makes it seem like every pitch is coming in at 100 mph, which makes it all the more disconcerting if he throws something that looks exactly like a fastball before dropping four inches at the last moment.

I say this not to try to find a positive where there isn’t one, but rather to explain a positive that doesn’t seem intuitive at first glance–of the 18 pitches there classified as changeups–what I’d call the splitter–six drew swinging strikes, which cries out for an explanation even in such a small sample. He sure uses the pitch like a splitter:

With his deception aiding the offspeed offering, it certainly seems like it should be effective.

Hamburger also throws a slurvy slider in the 79-84 mph range. Like the split, it was effective in limited use (15 of 20 strikes, three swinging). Also like the split, it lacks the velocity or movement to profile as a true plus offering on its own, and its effectiveness is likely more a function of Hamburger’s deception and pitch patterning.

In sum, just about everything intuitive with Hamburger is wrong. He throws hard and with movement, yet his fastball is ineffective. His changeup/splitter doesn’t have that much movement, it’s nearly the same speed as his fastball, and he doesn’t throw it for strikes, but it is effective. His slider is slurvy, and it works too. He’s got a ton of effort in his motion, and yet he’s a control pitcher.

What does it add up to? A pitcher with some strengths and some weaknesses, who does enough well that he should be a serviceable MLB reliever. A lot of his potential is dependent on his offspeed success being real, which might be a stretch since I’m basing my conclusions mainly on 38 pitches and a whole lot of conjecture.

Hamburger turns 25 in February, so he may yet iron out some of his flaws and improve. His upside is probably as a seventh-inning guy, but he should be useful if he can throw his fastball for strikes, particularly low strikes, to get grounders and/or set up his offspeed stuff.

For more on the Rangers, check out Nolan Writin’.

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