The Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects, #85: Maikel Cleto

Name: Maikel Cleto
DOB: 5/1/89
Organization: Cardinals
Position: Pitcher
Notable 2011 Stats: 2.48 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 2 HRA, 10 BB, 33 K, 39% GB% in 29 IP with Palm Beach (High-A);
3.93 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 2 HRA, 12 BB, 36 K, 50% GB% in 34 1/3 IP with Springfield (AA);
4.29 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 6 HRA, 43 BB, 66 K, 45% GB% in 71 1/3 IP with Memphis (AAA);
3.81 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 10 HRA, 65 BB, 135 K, 46% GB% in 134 2/3 IP between 3 minor league levels;
12.46 ERA, 9.03 FIP, 2 HRA, 4 BB, 6 K, 40% GB% in 4 1/3 with Cardinals

Why He’s This High: Of the 662 pitchers who threw a pitch in the major leagues during 2011, none had a higher average fastball velocity than Cleto’s 98.4 mph. He fired 96-101 mph bullets in relief, and the pitch has good run and sink even at its higher velocities. As a starter, Cleto’s more in the 93-99 mph range, but still boasts a very intimidating heater.

He backs the fastball up with a solid hard curveball in the 82-86 mph range, giving him two good pitches. Ordinarily, a starter needs a more well-rounded arsenal than that, but with this sort of heat, Cleto doesn’t need a changeup as much as most guys. That said, he does throw one, which comes in (rather amusingly) in the low-90’s.

As a 22-year-old, the righthander had no trouble pitching in the High-A Florida State League, and he also handled Double-A with aplomb–no small feat considering that his home park there was the most hitter-friendly park in Double-A. He continued to strike batters out at a solid clip in both Triple-A and the majors; were it not for a disastrous first inning of MLB pitching (which can be excused, certainly), his line would indicate that he didn’t have too much trouble even at the highest level.

Holding his own after all the promotions was a great accomplishment, and Cleto’s premium arm strength gives him tons of upside.

Why He’s This Low: Cleto’s always been seen as a very raw pitcher, which is why he doesn’t show up on many top prospect lists despite touching 101 with his fastball. He had a 5.33 ERA in Low-A in 2009 and a 6.10 ERA in High-A (Cal League/High Desert caveats apply; 4.31 FIP) in 2010.

Like #88 prospect Dellin Betances, Cleto uses a delivery that’s basically fundamentally sound, but he doesn’t always repeat it, causing him to lose his release point and start missing the zone. This obviously caught up to him in Triple-A and the majors, where he was facing veteran hitters who had seen shoulder-high 98 mph heat and plenty of curves in the dirt before. While some of the problems in Triple-A can be excused since he was rushed through Double-A quickly (as I said above), we also shouldn’t ignore the fact that it’s the early-season High-A/Double-A low walk rates that look out of line. Plenty of guys have “solved” their control issues for 50, or even 100, innings at a time, only to regress back–just look at Betances or the Rays’ Chris Archer.

Also like Betances, Cleto’s combination of arm strength and inconsistency strongly suggests a bullpen move, where he can regularly work at maximum velocity and forget about the changeup. As I mentioned in Betances’ writeup, such a move would negate a large portion of the pitcher’s potential.

Conclusions: Cleto definitely made some progress in going from thrower to pitcher in 2011, but there’s still lots of work to do; namely, he must get more consistent with his delivery and his changeup. He doesn’t turn 23 until May (a full year younger than Betances and with more AAA/MLB experience, definitely a plus), so he has some time to correct his flaws, and we certainly shouldn’t rule out further progress in light of the strides he made in 2011. That said, he’s an atypical hurler whom many have profiled for the bullpen. There’s an outside chance that Cleto becomes the NL’s Justin Verlander with this grade of heat, but the emphasis is on outside. Becoming Brandon Morrow–possibly complete with the early-career “starter or reliever?” drama–is more realistic, but the bullpen looms as a less desirable, and very possible, alternative.

Check out all of the Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects here!

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