The Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects, #100: Tyler Pastornicky

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Name: Tyler Pastornicky
DOB: 12/13/89
Organization: Braves
Position: Shortstop
Notable 2011 Statistics: .299/.345/.414 with 24 XBH, 6 HR, 34/24 K/BB, 20-28 SB in 90 games with Mississippi (AA); .365/.407/.413 with 3 XBH, 11/8 K/BB, 7-10 SB in 27 games with Gwinnett (AAA); .314/.359/.414 with 15 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 45/32 K/BB, 27-38 SB in 117 games total

Why He’s This High: As his statistics indicate, Pastornicky provided very solid offense at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels. His overall numbers aren’t incredible, but given that we’re talking about a 21-year-old shortstop in the upper minors, it was a very impressive season.

Of course, Pastornicky doesn’t boast much offense beyond his batting average–he neither walks nor homers at noteworthy rates. Still, though, the ability to hit for average seems legitimate, as he struck out in just 8.6% of his Double-A at-bats and 9.4% of his Triple-A at-bats. With solid speed and a knack for putting the bat on the ball, he should continue to hit for a good average in the majors, and he’s got enough other skills to project as a very solid starter at the position.

Since he just turns 22 in December, Pastornicky will have years to adapt to the big leagues, so he could afford a rough introduction and still be ahead of the age curve. It’s not difficult to see him as a guy who could consistently turn out .285/.330/.375 lines in the big leagues, perhaps doing something similar to what Alexei Ramirez has done in 2011. No, it’s not the flashiest way to produce, but given the state of middle-infield offense in baseball today, Pastornicky looks like a good bet to be a valuable starter. Of course, he’s nearly ready for the majors, so his downside is low.

Why He’s This Low: Pastornicky’s selection to this top 100 list probably comes as a surprise to many; you won’t see him on many other lists of this sort. This is largely due to a lack of upside; while he’s just 21, there’s a large perception that Pastornicky is as good as he’s ever going to be. His body isn’t very projectable, so it’s unlikely he becomes a threat to hit more than ten homers in a season. At the same time, what filling out he has done has impacted his speed. Here’s his steals per game every season of his career:

2008: .54
2009: .46
2010: .304
2011: .23

His success rate on the bases has also been iffy–he was 27-of-32 in 2008 and 35-of-44 in 2010, but just 57-of-75 in 2009 and 27-of-38 in 2011. If he can steal at his 2010 clip (~79%), he’ll have value on the bases, but his 2011 rate (~71%) barely breaks even.

Pastornicky also made 26 errors in the field in 2011, fielding just .942. Most believe he’ll be able to stay in the middle infield and have the ability to at least spot at shortstop, but many are questioning his viability as an everyday shortstop defensively. Of course, the error total is one thing we can expect improvement on from a 21-year-old, whether he’s “projectable” or not, but with his pure speed in decline, he’s certainly going to need to get his fundamentals in order if he wants to stay at short (and if he does stay at short, to not give away a bunch of runs with his glove). He does have enough the raw tools to make a competent defender at the position, but he’ll need to maximize those tools to turn into an above-average MLB defender.

Conclusions: Pastornicky has a very high floor but a rather low ceiling. However, when one considers the state of the shortstop position in today’s MLB, it’s not difficult to see a player who showed excellent contact skills, solid speed, and a hint of power in the upper minors at age 21 having a long and productive career relative to many of his peers at the position. He’s not a sexy pick for a list like this, and there’s plenty of justification for placing him well out of the top 100 prospects, but few minor leaguers have better odds of becoming solid, productive MLB shortstops. Granted, there are plenty of better shortstop prospects, who I’ll of course be discussing later in the list, but even a player like Manny Machado or Nick Franklin faces defensive concerns, and players like Billy Hamilton and Hak-Ju Lee have some things to prove on offense. Pastornicky is a very “safe” pick, perhaps overly so, but he certainly deserves notice for his excellent performance for his age, level, and position.

Previous installments in the Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects:

Introduction

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Topics: Atlanta Braves, Gwinnett Braves, Tyler Pastornicky

MCBjohnverburg

I would agree that you won’t see him on many top 100 lists. He’s not a bad player, but not sure he fits here. I would take Andrelton Simmons over Pastornicky, and I kind of doubt he will be on your list.

NathanielStoltz

@MCBjohnverburg Well, as I said in the writeup, I don’t expect to see Pastornicky on other top 100 lists, and there’s plenty of good reason for that. I do think that his age relative to the level isn’t discussed as often as it should be, due to concerns about his ceiling. I’m not a fan of putting artificial “ceilings” on a player, though, and while I agree that Pastornicky’s upside seems to be less than great, shortstops who are ready at age 21 don’t grow on trees.

But hey, to each his own. There are totally valid reasons to keep him out of a top 200, let alone a top 100, and I’m quite aware of them.

Really, though, you’d take Simmons over him? Simmons is a few months older and is TWO levels below him, with an inferior batting line and worse speed numbers. He’s probably more athletic, but is also more raw in the field. I think he’s behind Pastornicky in pretty much every aspect right now.

Thanks for the comment–keep up the good work at MCB, and I hope you keep reading!

MCBjohnverburg

@NathanielStoltz Here is why I like Simmons better. His batting line is almost identical to Pastornicky’s. But the difference is that Simmons has room for more growth in his game, as he pitched as well in college and many people preferred him there. His defensive potential is gold glove quality, his frame suggests he could add more strength and power than Pastornicky, and he is athletic as well, though he needs to learn how to run the bases better. His negatives are fixable with experience, and his ceiling is higher in my opinion. Plus, if he fails as a position guy, he has a 98 mph fastball he can go to on the mound.

NathanielStoltz

@MCBjohnverburg Perhaps he does have higher upside, but he also has a lower floor. All depends on how you weight these attributes as far as where you’d put the guys on a list. There’s certainly no right or wrong.

The bottom line is, if Pastornicky becomes one of the 10 or 15 best SS in baseball, my ranking is more than justified. I think he can do that. Simmons could get there as well, but I’d like to see more from him before really being comfortable with that. I do think, given how unpredictable career paths are, that it’s dangerous to affix ceilings to guys, and often times some of these so-called “polished, low-upside” players wind up taking a big step forward at some point.

In any case, it’s an imperfect science. I’ve been wrong on tons of things before, and there’s certainly a chance that Simmons proves better than Pastornicky, or that Pastornicky doesn’t justify my ranking. Only time will tell.