Harvesting Opinion: St. Louis Cardinals–Matt Adams

Harvesting Opinion is a regular feature on Seedlings to Stars. Each week, six of FanSided’s team blogs send S2S a question relating to their team’s minor league system, and we answer them in this space–each question gets one article devoted to answering it. In this way, we make sure we regularly get to discuss hot-button issues relating to the systems of every team, as these go on a five-week cycle. 

Please note that any statistics used may be a day or two out of date, as we prepare our answers over the course of a week.

In this edition, we tackle a question sent to us from our St. Louis Cardinals site Redbird Rants:

While top Cardinals prospect Shelby Miller gets most of the attention in the St. Louis farm system, one of his Springfield teammates is quickly making a name for himself. Matt Adams, who was recently named the Texas League Player of the Year, is quickly climbing up the ranks in this organization. Depending on what happens with Albert Pujols in free agency, is there a realistic chance that Adams could be the next man in line at first base? If so, how long until we might see him land a spot on the Major League roster?

Nathaniel says: Matt Adams is a tough player to figure out. He can definitely hit, but we shouldn’t go too nuts over his 32-HR season. After all, Springfield is one of the most hitter-friendly parks at the Double-A level, and Adams has basically traded 20 doubles for 10 homers this season after moving up from High-A (41 2B, 22 HR last year, 23 2B, 32 HR this year).

So, it’s an open question if this 30-HR power will translate to the Cardinals’ pitcher-friendly stadium in the long run. He definitely needs it to do so, because Adams doesn’t bring much else to the table.

He’s a poor defensive first baseman who can’t play anywhere else, adds nothing on the bases, and doesn’t get on base at a huge clip. Yes, he has a .360 OBP this year, but for a guy that’s this feared at the plate, 33 unintentional walks is nothing to write home about. However, on the flip side, he doesn’t have a huge strikeout problem, so he’s not a risk to hit .210.

Obviously, if Pujols leaves and Adams tears up Triple-A next year, he’ll get a look unless the Cardinals sign some other established first baseman. If St. Louis goes in-house for a Pujols replacement, Mark Hamilton would likely get the first crack at it, and Allen Craig could even get tried there as well, since both players have proven themselves in Triple-A and played in the majors, while Adams hasn’t. Hamilton seems like an eminently replaceable first baseman, though, and Craig can play everywhere on the diamond, so Adams could likely force his way into the lineup sometime next year even if he doesn’t break camp with the Cards.

Wally says:

Heading into the 2011 season Mark Hamilton topped the organization’s depth chart at 1B, but he’s done little to help his case to be TGAP (The Guy After Pujols) if Albert takes his talents elsewhere. I know that may sound kind of crazy to say since Hamilton has hit 0.343/.438/.468 with 42 BB and 44 SO in the minors this year. The problem here is that his #1 asset is his power and that has vanished in 2011 after he belted 20 in 2010. In about the same number of games and the same number of plate appearances for Memphis, Mark has hit just 2 HR this season. He’s also hit 0.213/.275/.277 with 3 2B and a 16-4 SO-to-BB in 51 PA (38 G) for the Cardinals, which isn’t helping his case. Further, his lackluster defensive ability is working against his chance to be an everyday or even part-time 1B, and finally, Hamilton is 27 so there’s not a lot of upside or projection in his game.

As Nathaniel mentioned, Allen Craig can play pretty much everywhere – the only positions he hasn’t played in 2011 are C and SS – and he has a lot of value as a super utility guy. It’s reasonable to believe he could hold down a regular 1B gig in the majors; he certainly has shown the ability to hit major league pitching with a 139 OPS+ in 2011 and a 92 OPS+ as a rookie last season. However, moving Craig to 1B would open up another hole for the team to fill, and if they are going to go that route, why not just sign someone to play 1B this offseason or give a guy like Adams a chance?

Speaking of Adams, he certainly has done enough to merit a look and I’m of the mind that he could at least equal the production of Mark Hamilton. It doesn’t hurt that Adams is 5 years younger and hasn’t reached his ceiling as a player yet. While Nathaniel is right to note that Springfield is “hitter happy,” Matt Adams has hit very well at all 4 of his stops in the minors and has never slugged less 0.523. He has a 0.317/.367/.555 slash line in 297 G and I think that is enough evidence that while his home park may be giving him a little boost it’s not an overriding factor.

He shouldn’t be handed the job, but given their in house options even if he has a mediocre showing in spring training it should be his to lose. Of course this assumes 3 things. First, that Albert actually goes elsewhere, which is something I still have a hard time picturing. Second, that Lance Berkman – if he resigns with the Cardinals – stays in the OF instead of taking over at 1B. Third, that the team doesn’t go out and acquire another 1B option either in free agency (Prince Fielder?) or via trade for a player blocked in their organization (like the Royals’ Clint Robinson).

That’s a lot of variables but assuming Albert leaves, Berkman leaves (or resigns to primarily play OF), and St Louis looks for an internal option it’s reasonable to believe that Matt Adams could be the Opening Day 1B for the Cardinals … and have impossibly large shoes to fill.

For more on the Cardinals, check out Redbird Rants.