Harvesting Opinion: Baltimore Orioles–Manny Machado and the Middle Infield

Harvesting Opinion is a regular feature on Seedlings to Stars which will appear every Monday. Each week, six of FanSided’s team blogs send S2S a question relating to their team’s minor league system, and we answer them in this space–each question gets one article devoted to answering it. In this way, we make sure we regularly get to discuss hot-button issues relating to the systems of every team, as these go on a five-week cycle. 

Please note that any statistics used may be a day or two out of date, as we prepare our answers over the course of a week.

In this edition, we tackle a question sent to us from our Baltimore Orioles blog Birds Watcher:

J.J. Hardy has recently been signed to a 3-year deal with the Orioles. The O’s top prospect is SS Manny Machado so what exactly does that mean for him? The general idea is for Hardy to be here for 3 years and then Machado comes up to play in the majors. Will he be ready by then and what happens if he’s not? Also, do the O’s have any decent prospects at 2B? Do you think they could re-sign and move Hardy over to 2nd 3 years from now when Machado comes up to take over at SS?

Nathaniel says: Well, Hardy’s contract runs through the 2014 season. At the rate he’s developed, it would come as a disappointment for Machado to need that much seasoning before coming to Baltimore, given that he’s already in High-A Frederick and performing solidly little over a year after being drafted.

Machado’s frame is often compared to Alex Rodriguez’s, and at 6’3” and 185 pounds, he may ultimately outgrow the shortstop position just as Rodriguez did. He’s not really a speedster out there, although he’s said to get quick reads and possess solid range for the position at this point. Then again, he just turned 19 a month ago, so it’s very possible that his body fills out some as he matures and he moves to third base or even right field.

It’s hard to say anything more certain than that about the Orioles’ middle infield situation in 2015, since baseball development patterns take all sorts of twists and turns. Hardy should have the aptitude to handle second if the Orioles need to move him there in 2015—and if they want Machado at short, don’t be surprised if Hardy moves before then. There’s always the option of trading Hardy for a young second baseman when Machado is ready for short—really, any number of things can happen. It depends on Machado’s exact timetable (he could arrive in the big leagues anywhere from September 2012 to sometime in 2014) and if Hardy, who hasn’t exactly had the most consistent career himself (see 2005-06, 2009), is still a player worth starting when Machado is ready.

As for the Orioles’ second base prospects…there’s nobody who’s a sure thing. LJ Hoes was considered the team’s top prospect at that position entering 2011, but he’s moved to the outfield this season. They’ve got some decent guys there in the minors—Ryan Adamshas a decent bat and Greg Miclat runs well and has good plate discipline—but nobody who really profiles as a future starter. The O’s were hoping Mychal Givens would step up to become the team’s second baseman of the future, but he hit under .200 in Low-A, really dropping his stock. It’s not out of the question that the team could draft a second baseman high in next year’s draft and have him ready in 2 ½ years, however.

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Wally says: It’s hard to argue with anything Nathaniel says above though I have to admit that I cringe whenever anyone brings up A-Rod’s name. Machado may have a similar frame but that’s about the extent of their similarities. At best, Manny is “A-Rod lite” – not that there is anything wrong with that. I point this out not because I believe Nathaniel was comparing more than their frames, but rather to temper the expectations of long suffering Orioles fans.

As far as the Hardy-Machado dynamic, I think it is really a moot point. There is nothing JJ can do that would or should delay Manny’s arrival as Baltimore’s long term answer at SS. It’s Manny’s timetable to set, but I believe we will be squarely into 2013 before he makes his major league debut. Beyond that, it’s hard to project Hardy playing anywhere else but SS since he’s only played there in both the majors and minors and the transition to 2B isn’t as simple as some people would like it to be. My hunch is that when Machado is ready, JJ will shipped elsewhere.

Make sure to check out Birds Watcher for more on the Orioles.