A Breakdown of Carlton Smith and Abner Abreu

Today, the Cubs sent outfielder Kosuke Fukudome and cash to the Indians for two prospects–Triple-A righthander Carlton Smith and High-A outfielder Abner Abreu.

Let’s take a quick look at the two players to see if either could potentially help Chicago down the line.

Neither player was ranked on the Indians’ top 30 prospects by Baseball America prior to 2011.

Smith was a 21st round draft pick way back in 2004. He’s spent most of the past two seasons in the Triple-A bullpen after several mediocre years as a starter in the lower minors.

He’s pitched well in relief this year, striking out a batter per inning in Triple-A. Smith has always been a groundball-oriented pitcher (49% grounder rate this year and higher in the past), so between his ability to get whiffs and grounders, he could be a serviceable MLB reliever. And he’s ready right now, more or less.

But let’s not get carried away with him. Smith has 20 walks in 46 innings, and he’s just a 25-year-old reliever in Triple-A. So while he’s a potential low-leverage reliever, he’s nothing to get particularly excited about.

The more interesting player in the trade is Abreu. As a 21-year-old in High-A, Abreu has a .185 ISO (in a very pitcher-friendly environment, too) and 19 steals in 22 attempts. That marks him as a potential power/speed dynamo.

A middle infielder when he signed half a decade ago, Abreu has morphed into a power-armed right fielder with enough athleticism to spot in center if needed.

You might be wondering why such a player wouldn’t be a well-known or highly-coveted prospect, and it boils down to one thing: Abreu’s approach. He’s got 102 strikeouts and just 22 walks in 91 games this season, which has led to a .244/.294/.429 line. It’s tough to be a playable corner outfielder if you can’t get on base at a .315 clip or higher, unless you have an absolutely unbelievable grade of power…and while Abreu could grow into more pop given his frame, it’s unlikely that alone will turn him into a big leaguer–that hasn’t worked out very well for Wily Mo Pena, after all.

Abreu has to improve that strikeout-to-walk ratio enough to get his OBP up significantly, either by cutting down on the strikeouts (and thus improving his average) or increasing the walks, hopefully both. Sometimes, players like this eventually figure it out; other times it never clicks. The Cubs aren’t known as an organization that really preaches OBP, though, so I wouldn’t be that optimistic. That said, Abreu does have significant tools that could pay off, and you can’t sensibly write him off at age 21.

It will be interesting to see how these two players fare in their new organization.