The Cal League Strikes Again: Poythress, Chavez Struggling in Double-A
By Aaron Somers
As far as analyzing minor league statistics goes, the California League wins the “most annoying league to analyze” category by a mile. The ball flies all over the place in the Cal League ballparks, making even defense-oriented, light-hitting infielders into dangerous hitters on many occasions. Scores of batters have posted truly incredible-looking offensive numbers there, only to flail at higher levels.
And this year’s no different. And that’s bad news, especially for Mariners fans.
Last year, both first baseman Rich Poythress and outfielder Johermyn Chavez posted incredible numbers in the Cal League. Poythress hit .315/.381/.580 with 31 homers, while Chavez hit .315/.387/.577 with 32 bombs.
They both played in a home park that was friendly even by the Cal League’s standards, but Poythress and Chavez both had some mitigating factors that suggested they could continue hitting well at higher levels. Chavez’s performance came at age 21, he’d hit 21 homers in the tough Midwest League in 2009, and he wasn’t an entirely bat-dependent player anyway, being a reasonably athletic outfielder. Poythress had the pedigree to be a first-round pick, he struck out at a reasonable rate, and he actually hit better on the road than at cozy High Desert.
But, in spite of all those plus signs, the wheels have come off for both prospects at Double-A Jackson of the Southern League this year. Poythress is hitting .222/.305/.387, while Chavez is managing just .226/.301/.357.
It’s particularly troubling for Poythress, a thickly-built first baseman who needs to hit to have much of a career. He’s still controlling the strike zone decently enough (49/23 K/BB), and his power (15 doubles, seven homers) is at least somewhat intact. We can blame BABIP for some of that, but some of it’s also due to Poythress’ lack of speed and a power stroke that certainly doesn’t shine as brightly as it did last year. Nearing his 24th birthday and needing to hit, he needs to turn things around very quickly.
Chavez, at 22, has more time, but his performance, featuring a 66/16 K/BB, has been even more concerning, because there really aren’t excuses for it like there are with Poythress and his BABIP. And he’s gotten worse as the year’s gone on, from a .288/.333/.388 line in March to a .231/.333/.404 line in May to an abysmal 3-for-37 (with 17 Ks) in June.
The lesson to be learned here: The transition out of the Cal League and into less friendly environments can do some weird things to hitters, even when they seem well-positioned to overcome it. Of course, Chavez and Poythress still have time to rebound, but there’s no question that their performance thus far has fallen well short of even park-adjusted expectations.